Thread: Discuss GBP/USD - H2 2012

Hello Traders! Happy Friday Retail FXCM traders seem to be long dollar which may put a floor under risk appetite currencies ahead!

Happy Pipping!

Greg

SSI Details:

EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -1.71 as nearly 63% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.95 as 66% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 5.2% higher than yesterday and 11.9% weaker since last week. Short positions are 7.6% lower than yesterday and 44.3% stronger since last week. Open interest is 3.2% weaker than yesterday and 8.0% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD gains.

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at -1.84 as nearly 65% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -2.20 as 69% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 18.4% higher than yesterday and 5.0% stronger since last week. Short positions are 0.9% lower than yesterday and 36.6% stronger since last week. Open interest is 5.1% stronger than yesterday and 20.1% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD gains.

GBPJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPJPY stands at 1.26 as nearly 56% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.24 as 55% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 3.0% higher than yesterday and 8.5% stronger since last week. Short positions are 1.6% higher than yesterday and 11.6% weaker since last week. Open interest is 2.4% stronger than yesterday and 6.9% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPJPY losses.
USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 11.26 as nearly 92% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 10.74 as 91% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 0.8% lower than yesterday and 37.2% stronger since last week. Short positions are 5.3% lower than yesterday and 60.1% weaker since last week. Open interest is 1.2% weaker than yesterday and 3.0% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at 1.10 as nearly 52% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.35 as 57% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 8.3% lower than yesterday and 48.9% stronger since last week. Short positions are 12.5% higher than yesterday and 0.8% stronger since last week. Open interest is 0.5% stronger than yesterday and 17.2% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCHF losses.

USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 2.68 as nearly 73% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 2.73 as 73% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 4.0% lower than yesterday and 26.6% weaker since last week. Short positions are 2.2% lower than yesterday and 36.0% stronger since last week. Open interest is 3.5% weaker than yesterday and 0.6% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD losses.

AUDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at -1.18 as nearly 54% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.08 as 52% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 8.2% lower than yesterday and 10.7% weaker since last week. Short positions are 0.1% higher than yesterday and 0.5% stronger since last week. Open interest is 3.9% weaker than yesterday and 7.0% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more AUDUSD gains.

NZDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the NZDUSD stands at -1.70 as nearly 63% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -2.15 as 68% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 14.5% higher than yesterday and 8.3% weaker since last week. Short positions are 9.3% lower than yesterday and 8.4% stronger since last week. Open interest is 1.7% weaker than yesterday and 13.0% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more NZDUSD gains.



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Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

Could US Durable Goods Give Cable a Lift After Lower UK GDP Number?- GBP/USD finding support at daily S1 Pivot. Cable may use US Durable goods number to make her move higher. Break above regression channel could be the signal for bulls to take their positions.

I'm still holding from 1.5825. Gasp! ;-)

Now according to ING...

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - According to a National Statistics release, UK quarterly GDP numbers for the second quarter of 2012 were revised upwards from -0.7% to -0.5%. ING analyst James Knightley points out that an additional bank holiday established on June 5 to celebrate Queen’s Diamond Jubilee most probably cut approximately 0.5% off growth.

Mr Knightley believes that this means that UK economy is not plunging deeper into recession but rather just stagnating, as “rising tax revenues, rising aggregate hours worked and rising employment don’t usually occur in a recession, while business surveys suggest the UK is outperforming the Eurozone rather than undershooting.” Thus, the expert projects that “GDP should rebound reasonably strongly in 3Q12 on an unwinding of working day effects and possibly a mild Olympic boost.”

Originally Posted by meonia

I'm still holding from 1.5825. Gasp! ;-)

Now according to ING...

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - According to a National Statistics release, UK quarterly GDP numbers for the second quarter of 2012 were revised upwards from -0.7% to -0.5%. ING analyst James Knightley points out that an additional bank holiday established on June 5 to celebrate Queen’s Diamond Jubilee most probably cut approximately 0.5% off growth.

Mr Knightley believes that this means that UK economy is not plunging deeper into recession but rather just stagnating, as “rising tax revenues, rising aggregate hours worked and rising employment don’t usually occur in a recession, while business surveys suggest the UK is outperforming the Eurozone rather than undershooting.” Thus, the expert projects that “GDP should rebound reasonably strongly in 3Q12 on an unwinding of working day effects and possibly a mild Olympic boost.”

Cable is acting more like a bungee chord. It could take a bit of time before the market prices this piece of news that is bullish for cable.

Originally Posted by Alejandro Zambrano

Bulls vs. Bears: The Spread Betting Morning Update August 24 - 2012
Presentation
http://www.livestream.com/dailyfx/video?clipId=pla_1af4a266-dad7-4448-b11c-6bb8f2f3ed64&utm_source=lslibrary&utm_medium=ui-thumb

Q&A Session
http://www.livestream.com/dailyfx/video?clipId=pla_24f2dfd5-e20d-4400-b6bf-dc4f5f3b2f64&utm_source=lslibrary&utm_medium=ui-thumb

1.58 is not far way any longer

Originally Posted by Alejandro Zambrano

1.58 is not far way any longer

I feel it will hit S3 before recent news impacts the prices...would you concur with this or another theory?

Originally Posted by simonward

I feel it will hit S3 before recent news impacts the prices...would you concur with this or another theory?

whats news? and when do you think we will reach S3?

Originally Posted by citytrader46

Morning Bart3s
I see this pair at the top of a daily channel and would prefer to sell at 15850 but like you agree its still bullish if we trade above 15750 I will be looking to sell today maybe scalp it on its pullback

1581 is a support trandline on my hourly chart. Time to get long again I feel and back to trading with the trend

Originally Posted by simonward

Morning Everyone,

Hope you are all well?

Started little late this morning (Bordeaux Red is moorish) Gone in at 1.2539 to come out at 1.2590...dont think 1.26 will break today then followed by downturn i think as profits come out later this afternoon.

Struggling to find decent entry on GBPUSD so may give it a miss till later...

Gone in EURJPY 98.52 to leave 99.10....

My conundrum this morning is the AUDUSD and USDJPY....any thoughts or opinions would be lovely?

GL

Started very late your time lol its after lunch Must have been a good evening

famous last words ... but I can't see it going too much further down for today....be interesting if we did get below 1.58 ...to see if former resistance turns support. Happier with todays moves, bank holiday monday coming in UK .... afternoon profit takers could push it down further... or a bounce on the lower RSI, only the FOMC report pushed it the last 100 pips up...

Week is ending well , my euro $ short has taken shape but ... we shall see

upload picture


will see what develops

Originally Posted by citytrader46

1581 is a support trandline on my hourly chart. Time to get long again I feel and back to trading with the trend

Good trade mate. I decided to join you there. I so love when 4:15pm GMT comes! Closed my 1.5825 now by the way for small profit. Keeping 1.5809 open. :-)

Originally Posted by root-minus

upload picture


will see what develops

Germany, France want results of Spanish banks audit soon If Spanish banking audit is worse than expected look for exit of money from Euro to the UK pushing EUR/GBP lower

Originally Posted by meonia

Good trade mate. I decided to join you there. I so love when 4:15pm GMT comes! Closed my 1.5825 now by the way for small profit. Keeping 1.5809 open. :-)

Why the spike? Well - Rumour mill cranks up again: ECB considering setting yield band targets under new program

Originally Posted by meonia

Good trade mate. I decided to join you there. I so love when 4:15pm GMT comes! Closed my 1.5825 now by the way for small profit. Keeping 1.5809 open. :-)

Congrats getting some profit! Ben Bernanke answering questions from US representative Issa on Capitol hill says that there is "more scope for Fed action to ease financial conditions".

Originally Posted by citytrader46

1581 is a support trandline on my hourly chart. Time to get long again I feel and back to trading with the trend

good entry buddy, 1.5805 was the reverse point and 0.618 fibo line from 1.5635 to 1.5910