Thread: Discuss USD/JPY, GBP/JPY, and other JPY Pairs

Originally Posted by not_now

Dear forum,

Lately I've been staring a lot at G/J chart and as you know when you stare too much at something you may start seeing things, so in that sense I check from time to time this forum to see if anyone else sees what I see.
So the story behind my last trading idea is that G/J is going down with recent series of lower lows and lower highs on the 1H chart. I think the area around 133.7-133.8 is a powerful cluster resistance with various overlapping/confluent fibnonacci levels so therefore I treat the recent run as a pullback and a good place to go short.
Since GBPJPY is a cross, I also think GBPUSD is at its own cluster resistance and will be going down from where it is now.
What can work against this assumption is that USDJPY and other JPY crosses are at critical levels so the Yen might start depreciating short term and the recent run on GBPJPY might be treated as an A of A-B-C zig-zag EW pattern which should propel the price higher. However even in that case there is probability that the B wave will retrace 61.8 of the A wave which will be my BE point.

hi,
nice charting and posting.. guy. Hope this a retracements..helps? Let see forward next week..and target it with alot of cares.. happing holiday
cheers//sg

Market closed below 88 for the second time. More downside risk for the coming weeks. Expected to test the lows @ 85.00/84.80 area.

Originally Posted by not_now

Dear forum,

Lately I've been staring a lot at G/J chart and as you know when you stare too much at something you may start seeing things, so in that sense I check from time to time this forum to see if anyone else sees what I see.
So the story behind my last trading idea is that G/J is going down with recent series of lower lows and lower highs on the 1H chart. I think the area around 133.7-133.8 is a powerful cluster resistance with various overlapping/confluent fibnonacci levels so therefore I treat the recent run as a pullback and a good place to go short.
Since GBPJPY is a cross, I also think GBPUSD is at its own cluster resistance and will be going down from where it is now.
What can work against this assumption is that USDJPY and other JPY crosses are at critical levels so the Yen might start depreciating short term and the recent run on GBPJPY might be treated as an A of A-B-C zig-zag EW pattern which should propel the price higher. However even in that case there is probability that the B wave will retrace 61.8 of the A wave which will be my BE point.

hye brother...

yup.. totally agree with u.. like i said. the highest we can go is either 135xx level or 136xx level before continue it bearish trend.. anyway.. let see what will next week bring to us.. at the moment, wll stick to my count.. ..

last week i also remind that GU will touch 152 level before continue its downtrend.. ..

happy trading to all of us for next week..

Originally Posted by Tigger

Yup, brand new. Make over 1,000 pips week. You join in my GBP/AUD GBP/NZD longs yet? Make me a call and I'll see if I like it. GBP/CAD long-term trade. You seem to be a very experienced person, so I await your call on a trade. I'll join in. My EUR/RUB long since yesterday made some Rubles lol.

hahaha... look back what i said for the dragon. I dont think we welcome ppl like u who come forum to show your PRO. LOL. Its enough now. I not gonna share to ppl like u. Welcome and goodbye BOY. Sayonara

This is what I see, ehich means that bulls and bears are both right, but this will end up bullish, then bearish, then a long Bullish... this should take 2 weeks... but this is what i see

Originally Posted by mihaia2002

This is what I see, ehich means that bulls and bears are both right, but this will end up bullish, then bearish, then a long Bullish... this should take 2 weeks... but this is what i see

Hi Mihaia,

Close to what I am also seeing, I have taken Wans second option and overlaid on mine. Top area somewhere near 137- 139 ish. All depends on where U/J and G/U go. If they run together then higher end. If they offset each other then lower end. We will have to wait and see. Lets hope the high end

I was about to work up a chart to post...

>>...But not neccessary...

The posts by WAN Tlord and Mihaia is the exact scenarios I see playing out....

I also think a key point to remember is that we are in a Major wave 5 down...

Wave 1 began in Mid July 07, wave 3 of 5 ended Jan 09....and wave 4 ended Aug 09

Wave 5's have a tendancy to range trade themselves lower, which means running to the top and bottoms of channels. The downtrend will remain in effect, in more or less what looks like sideways trading and then a ridiculoooous down move over the course of several weeks.

Based on possible wave counts we are building for the most profitable drop of a Major wave 3 of 5 on the weeklies. So bearish is DEFINATELY the way to go!.......BUTTTTT, there is a high probability that this will not occur until we get the proper cliff jump, if you will....
If this wave 5 proves to be as squirrely as the usual it will not happen UNTIL we get to at least 139ish. Give or take a 100 pips!


P.S. You folks are geniuses by the way (all of you) Great Forum!

P.S.S. Here's the 5 min chart for S&P futures...should make for interesting trading on SUN-MON, follow U/J for direction
http://www.quote.com/us/futures/char...rtUi.minutes=5

and...this article
https://plus.dailyfx.com/fxcmideas/i...Points_to.html

SIFRX

Well folks, looks like its heading down. still holding my shorts.

Currently hovering below 88.00 for the third day. If 88.50 is intact, more downside expected. How low will this go? Nobody knows?

Originally Posted by wan0903

Hye guys...

sorry for not updating for a long time.. i am quite busy with my daily job.. huhu..

pipmeister, sky, mr cool, time lord and others.. this is what i see (refer to chart , 1H TF, EW count)


we are finished upside from 13126 at 13340 level for wave 1. currently we are heading to wave 2.. usually it will finished at 61.8 Fibo (mark with pink 2..? - 13230 area). if finished and going upside from there, then we can target FE 61.8 at 13442 or even at FE 100 at 13550 for wave 3..

alternate count, if it's going up from here, then wave 2 finished at 38.2 fibo (13279 - marked with aqua 2..? ).. and usually we can reach FE 100 or even FE 161.8 (13698 level ) easily to finished wave 3..

anyway.. my count might be wrong.. just wait n see what happen next week..anyhow, i would say we are forming wave 2 with both my calculation still in place.. so, be carefull and place a right entry guys...

one more, longer bearish trendline is still in contact but also be carefull with establish bullish trendline which are forming now.. (aqua trendline in the chart). so. let see which way they will break...

have a great weekend guys.. see ya later..

Hye guys...


not much movement as always on monday.. hehe..

still sideline at the moment..although bearish is still favourable at the moment (to test 61.8 fibo in 1H TF)


Mr Cool.. If we see in H4 TF, yes.. bearish is still in our hand.. see the following chart.. 13378 is on 61.8 Fibo with current price still in between 50 and 61.8 fibo.. so let see which way it break, if continue lower, then FE 161.8 is at 127.87 level for wave 3 or wave 5..

anyway.. just be carefull.. dragon might want to retest 135-136 level before continue it journey... hehe..

happy trading to all...

Today is a USA holiday (Independence Day). Markets should be thin. Risk is still to the downside to test 85.00/84.80. This week should be interesting.

Originally Posted by Loudness

Today is a USA holiday (Independence Day). Markets should be thin. Risk is still to the downside to test 85.00/84.80. This week should be interesting.

I suppose that depends on your perspective. The largest trading volume is during the UK session, so only the afternoon (from 1pm) is going to be affected in that respect.

Thanks for the message anyway.

Considering how world markets affect each other, it makes me wonder just how independent any country really is from another, that is after taking out who rules it.

wheres the support come on BULLS

Hi,

I am new here and I just noticed that the USDJPY was Break 87.82 should be indicate bearish now?

Originally Posted by J.Giordano

Hi,

I am new here and I just noticed that the USDJPY was Break 87.82 should be indicate bearish now?

Hello J.Giordano, yes the pair is bearish now. Read my previous posts above. Welcome and good luck!