Thread: Discuss USD/JPY, GBP/JPY, and other JPY Pairs

Here are a couple of near term scenarios for USD/JPY on the daily chart.

The overall daily trend is down, BUT every downtrend has occasional "bear market rallies" and this could be one of them.

Looks like GBP/JPY could be strengthening as stocks head higher intraday.

Originally Posted by mihaia2002

you people...

anyhow, 132.5 area will be touched next but that would be the last low for a long time, i think i said yesterday, we might not see 131.3 for a very long time, maybe September when it will be 139 and then 118 next but these are fairytales as I cannot make such predictions, but 132.5 NEXT... again, been wrong before but might as well say something here if i believe it

Closed most of my shorts now for small profit, have to go but still letting some roll on as i kept on selling on the way up to 134.3 instead of taking the loss... TP 132.5

Daily candles are looking bullish. Hammer on yesterdays and todays is looking like a bullish engulfing candle.
I thought you had lost your marbles last week when you spoke of 139 but i might be joining you to the asylum now.lol.
Would love to see 132.50 first though!

Originally Posted by cool_fx

ha ha relax bro. 133 is expected. i will not go bullish till i see 134.

im adding and adding and adding shorts every 15 pips it rises.

Cool remember this post. Why would you go short now?

Originally Posted by cool_fx

Lol sorry my bad! i didnt saw tat trend line broken has broken.
im also short now at 133.48 S/L 136 target 130s

Im on a short GJ at 131.885 holding for a touch down, my s/l is in my head somewhere.....LOL I guess i might be lucky and close out 13260 but hope it comes down alot more..will see

edzfx

Originally Posted by edzfx

Im on a short GJ at 131.885 holding for a touch down, my s/l is in my head somewhere.....LOL I guess i might be lucky and close out 13260 but hope it comes down alot more..will see

edzfx

Credit to you, what a brave and honest post.
We're in the same boat with regards to open positions. Worrying how it likes to snuggle up to this 134 though, fixed like glue.

Done for the day - later.

Good luck

Originally Posted by skydiver

Credit to you, what a brave and honest post.
We're in the same boat with regards to open positions. Worrying how it likes to snuggle up to this 134 though, fixed like glue.

Done for the day - later.

Good luck

Thanks Skydiver!

just last week Gj was fighting to not break the wedge on daily then it didnt go straight down it came up fighting again and again....huh my nick name Scorpion on Steroids is a good fit :-)

Also the stress tests have uncertainty attached and market looks nervous I saw CHF earlier been bought when other currency were rising during Trichet speech another reason to hold my short in my reasons book.....but im not perfect
I think if it wasn't for following the longer term trend when pulling the trigger I wouldn't have a chance of getting out lightly ;-)

i think human fear,greed will play later today/tommorow for profit takers not leaving positions over w/e

Edzfx

Originally Posted by edzfx

Thanks Skydiver!

just last week Gj was fighting to not break the wedge on daily then it didnt go straight down it came up fighting again and again....huh my nick name Scorpion on Steroids is a good fit :-)

I think if it wasn't for following the longer term trend when pulling the trigger I wouldn't have a chance of getting out lightly ;-)

i think human fear,greed will play later today/tommorow for profit takers not leaving positions over w/e

Edzfx

The thing with the past month going sideways, is its very easy to get caught into a false sense of security. 135-131, 135-131 and so on. Then suddenly it will move 800 pips, one direction in lightening time. Its like Wan said ' position yourself carefully', neither of us did that yesterday.

Your words are encouraging - hope so. (im using the word hope a lot these days - not a good sign).
Gotta go - see ya.

skydiver, the near term picture (on the 15 minute chart) looks a bit bleak for the bullish. In other words, looking a bit bearish near term. Hmmmmmmmmm.

Originally Posted by Sean Hyman

skydiver, the near term picture (on the 15 minute chart) looks a bit bleak for the bullish. In other words, looking a bit bearish near term. Hmmmmmmmmm.

Yes thanks Sean. Difficult for me to trust my charts lately. Just looking at the 60min chart for today and its a complete mess. Bear candle followed by a bull and vice versa. I suppose that just high lights the lack of market belief in whats being said and done.
Watching bloomberg and you have one economist suggesting double dip and the next one suggesting a bull rally. Theyre as sure as i am and that seems to be reflected in all markets behaviour right now.

I just hope it dosent stay like this for much longer, im procrastinating here.

Should of sidelined yesterday as you suggested, wouldnt of missed anything other than anxiety.lol

Originally Posted by skydiver

Yes thanks Sean. Difficult for me to trust my charts lately. Just looking at the 60min chart for today and its a complete mess. Bear candle followed by a bull and vice versa. I suppose that just high lights the lack of market belief in whats being said and done.
Watching bloomberg and you have one economist suggesting double dip and the next one suggesting a bull rally. Theyre as sure as i am and that seems to be reflected in all markets behaviour right now.

I just hope it dosent stay like this for much longer, im procrastinating here.

Should of sidelined yesterday as you suggested, wouldnt of missed anything other than anxiety.lol

Hey sky, when u are anxious, just go back to basics. Make sure u have trades that won't cause u in having sleepless nights. Moreover when u are anxious u would perform bad in terms of trades.

2ndly, keep it simple. For me, I just use the 50ema daily as my SL (which is at 135 now). Moreover, like mihaia I open a position (quite large but still reasonable in terms of risk, usually 10-15% of account) and target 10-15 pips (it works wonders with this pair as u might know considering its volatility) and trust me when u close for those pips u would feel better. For longer term I use 3-5% of account.

Keeping it simple and by the basics really helps. Hope this would remind and help u too.

Enjoy ur day!

A nice shooting star developing on 4-hr chart, or is the move too small for that? Is it worth going short again on that, or wait for an eveing star to form?

EDIT: Possible resistance area between 88.73 - 89:05?

Regards,

Lee.

skydiver, 132.5 will come for sure, do not worry about that, why do i have a feeling that your trade is quite a big one...anyhow it will be the last drop before 136.2 ... just make sure you close it @ BE and then rethink everything even if you want to short

Originally Posted by kcooperj

Hey sky, when u are anxious, just go back to basics. Make sure u have trades that won't cause u in having sleepless nights. Moreover when u are anxious u would perform bad in terms of trades.

2ndly, keep it simple. For me, I just use the 50ema daily as my SL (which is at 135 now). Moreover, like mihaia I open a position (quite large but still reasonable in terms of risk, usually 10-15% of account) and target 10-15 pips (it works wonders with this pair as u might know considering its volatility) and trust me when u close for those pips u would feel better. For longer term I use 3-5% of account.

Keeping it simple and by the basics really helps. Hope this would remind and help u too.

Enjoy ur day!

Thanks KCooper, wise words and so true. I do go a-stray at times.
Like you, i enjoy scalping and i know it suits my character and my account best.
Sometimes i just stare at this PC for too many hours a day and then the boredom makes me jump into something that was unplanned and later becomes a regret.
But in my favour I am cautious with the amounts i trade with.

Dont hesitate in questioning my reasons for a trade in the future - always appreiciate yours and everyones posts.

G'night.

Originally Posted by Lee Saunders

A nice shooting star developing on 4-hr chart, or is the move too small for that? Is it worth going short again on that, or wait for an eveing star to form?

EDIT: Possible resistance area between 88.73 - 89:05?

Regards,

Lee.

The wick on top would have to be larger to be a shooting star. So far, I think this pair could bounce higher before turning lower again. It's almost had a "straignt line down" with almost no bounce at all.