Thread: Discuss USD/JPY, GBP/JPY, and other JPY Pairs

Well, I've never seen SSI so extreme before.
SSI=6. Now either all these traders are going to get it right this time, or there's going to be one heck of a drop as the stops get blown away.

Next week is going to be interesting.

Originally Posted by mihaia2002

LONG @ 132.4.... this might be it either way, been making some pips today with my longs.... 100+ all together... still ok for such a down move, but i guess nothing compared with u cool... congrats...

Mihaia, are you still holding LONG???
Anyone else holding long???

Originally Posted by Time Lord

Attachment 62113

Don't panic it's only a little drop.

I Paul!

Seriously,

That is the reason I started trading again recently....
(can't let cool have all the dreams!)

I am printing that octopus out and hanging it on my wall. It is as if my vision has manifested from the octi via TimeLord!

Love it!


SIRFX

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

Which way do you think GBP/JPY is headed? --974 pips up for grabs!

Chances are that the triangle will break in the direction of the trend; came in from the north - should break south.

Thanks for the clear chart Greg.

Originally Posted by sirfx

I Paul!

Seriously,

That is the reason I started trading again recently....
(can't let cool have all the dreams!)

I am printing that octopus out and hanging it on my wall. It is as if my vision has manifested from the octi via TimeLord!

Love it!


SIRFX

Originally Posted by Arthurs

Hehe but you know bears have to prepare for winter so it's time to start eating.

P.S. That octopus is awsome wish his forecast was 100% correct

Let's see if this play's out. my next weeks forcast.
Up to 134ish (might go higher) down to 132.60ish.

Then Bull's on the run to break 136.40 and above

I'm sure the Bears will have something to roar about. Ha Ha

Good luck all.

Hi all :-)

Watch out for the next UK crisis and GBP sell off.

Its called CP Debt anyone heard of it?

Its the UK Commercial Property Debt thats a hidden time bomb, its going to hit very soon.

The good old days you could borrow 2M UK sterling at low rates secured against covenant paying rent, be it office or shops.

All you needed was a 100K deposit and it was all go!!

Many property company's have refinanced over the years on rent increase and growth but its the banks that cant refinance the debts that the problem.

Not enough money in the system to do so but Banks are reluctant they see the next Tsunami coming.

Tenants have also renegotiated to pay monthly rents as the quarterly provisions were causing them cash flow problems, and thats one of the clues to the bubble.

Many covenants have defaulted and rents have gone to tribunal for reduction.

I know some big players in trouble and they have asked me for direction for refinance, I got out some time back :-)

Just for good measure I don't believe that any bank has really made a profit from mainstream lending to Joe Public but the gains shown are a cleaver combination of speculative risks and cost cutting with accountants bending the rules.

Do we believe when then Banks say "we dont know what exposure we have to toxic debt "that they are that stupid not to know?

If they told the world they would have not had any Government assistance that's a fact.

So watch out some time soon the UK Banks will in trouble with HUGE defaults from the commercial lending divisions and its a crisis much bigger than the residential crises FTSE will also tank severely.

So will GBP be bought or sold when this hits the fan? :-)

My other view is that UJ has hit new lows that it will surely retest and make new lower lows, with it will be GJ,GU following so I think GJ is heading down fast to retest flash crash lows and below.

Im a bear any time on GJ :-)

Any comments?

Edzfx

Originally Posted by edzfx

Hi all :-)

Watch out for the next UK crisis and GBP sell off.

Its called CP Debt anyone heard of it?

Its the UK Commercial Property Debt thats a hidden time bomb, its going to hit very soon.

The good old days you could borrow 2M UK sterling at low rates secured against covenant paying rent, be it office or shops.

All you needed was a 100K deposit and it was all go!!

Many property company's have refinanced over the years on rent increase and growth but its the banks that cant refinance the debts that the problem.

Not enough money in the system to do so but Banks are reluctant they see the next Tsunami coming.

Tenants have also renegotiated to pay monthly rents as the quarterly provisions were causing them cash flow problems, and thats one of the clues to the bubble.

Many covenants have defaulted and rents have gone to tribunal for reduction.

I know some big players in trouble and they have asked me for direction for refinance, I got out some time back :-)

Just for good measure I don't believe that any bank has really made a profit from mainstream lending to Joe Public but the gains shown are a cleaver combination of speculative risks and cost cutting with accountants bending the rules.

Do we believe when then Banks say "we dont know what exposure we have to toxic debt "that they are that stupid not to know?

If they told the world they would have not had any Government assistance that's a fact.

So watch out some time soon the UK Banks will in trouble with HUGE defaults from the commercial lending divisions and its a crisis much bigger than the residential crises FTSE will also tank severely.

So will GBP be bought or sold when this hits the fan? :-)

My other view is that UJ has hit new lows that it will surely retest and make new lower lows, with it will be GJ,GU following so I think GJ is heading down fast to retest flash crash lows and below.

Im a bear any time on GJ :-)

Any comments?

Edzfx

Hey, thanks for heads up! I belive so too, that GBP will hit new lows soon and GBP/JPY on daily chart looks very bearish to me (I posted a chart some time earlier here).

Edzfx,

AMEN!
There is no doubt we are about to collapse inthis cross...

I believe your use of theword 'next' is key though
Technically analysis from a dynamic perspective has shown we are correcting off the most recent weekly low.IMHO, we have to have an A-B-C correction on the weekly chart. I now believe we have completed A and B, where B had a lesser degree C wave from 135.90 to close at 132.60. That is a lower weekly close than just a couple weeks ago open at 132.70ish. I believe a bear trap has been set! With A and B now complete or very close to complete....look for a weekly wave C to bust through 136.40 and cresting 200-300 pips near the weekly downtrend line. As you know that is 139.40+++. This move and retest of whatever high will take approximately 5 weeks possibly 6. IMHO majorwave 5's down tend to look more range bound so its hard to say with 100 percent accuracy.....but we are going to see this pair in the 105-110 area in the last quarter..I also am VERRRRRRRRY! BEARISH!!, as you!
For now though I believe the correction will continue until we get a trendline break/failure. Technicals are currently the key to whats next!

SIRFX

Originally Posted by edzfx

Hi all :-)

Watch out for the next UK crisis and GBP sell off.

Its called CP Debt anyone heard of it?

Its the UK Commercial Property Debt thats a hidden time bomb, its going to hit very soon.

The good old days you could borrow 2M UK sterling at low rates secured against covenant paying rent, be it office or shops.

All you needed was a 100K deposit and it was all go!!

Many property company's have refinanced over the years on rent increase and growth but its the banks that cant refinance the debts that the problem.

Not enough money in the system to do so but Banks are reluctant they see the next Tsunami coming.

Tenants have also renegotiated to pay monthly rents as the quarterly provisions were causing them cash flow problems, and thats one of the clues to the bubble.

Many covenants have defaulted and rents have gone to tribunal for reduction.

I know some big players in trouble and they have asked me for direction for refinance, I got out some time back :-)

Just for good measure I don't believe that any bank has really made a profit from mainstream lending to Joe Public but the gains shown are a cleaver combination of speculative risks and cost cutting with accountants bending the rules.

Do we believe when then Banks say "we dont know what exposure we have to toxic debt "that they are that stupid not to know?

If they told the world they would have not had any Government assistance that's a fact.

So watch out some time soon the UK Banks will in trouble with HUGE defaults from the commercial lending divisions and its a crisis much bigger than the residential crises FTSE will also tank severely.

So will GBP be bought or sold when this hits the fan? :-)

My other view is that UJ has hit new lows that it will surely retest and make new lower lows, with it will be GJ,GU following so I think GJ is heading down fast to retest flash crash lows and below.

Im a bear any time on GJ :-)

Any comments?

Edzfx

Great piece you have wrote here and I apreaciate your doing so very much . I am with yourself in the long run , but have to say that my thoughts echo that of SIRFX . I do believe we will see 139 - 140ish before down . However when we hit down it will be relentless in doing so . As for now I remain bullish against a close below 131.50 . My current position is long at 132.60 my stop would be any close below 131.50 and would need to re-assess from there . As always I wish everyone all the best and may you all pocket pips .

SSI suggests for more drops for GBP/JPY and especially USD/JPY as it reached extreeem numbers of retail trader long positions

I expect a reversal up on monday. But only going to trade in european session. Waiting for two points of resistance to be established during asian session. And if price passes through them during eur session, I will go long. Have a nice trading week everybody.

remaining LONG @ 132.35... SL 131.6

Stop at just under 133 @ break even. Hoping that resistance at 132.7 to 132.8 will hold for the next 1/2 day and a poor US securities open will push the pair to break through the bottom of the triangle. Set take profit at 129 for now.

Originally Posted by Lee Saunders

Hello liacF,

Yes, my question was directed specifically toward Greg, so wasn't suggesting that you were bottom picking as you suggested that more confirmation is required. What I was unsure of is how Greg calculated a 400 PIP profit from it. SSI usually works in favour of the trend, and as Greg did mention, it would be a counter trend move. However, 2.84 is not as extreme as other pairs.

Have a good weekend.
All the best,

Lee.

hey, lee,

i think greg was using fib ratios to arrive at his conclusion.

you are a smart guy to not even consider bottom picking

i don't like picking bottoms either, but i do squibble on my charts to guess where bottoms might be, just no positions when all are obvious.

have a lucky week

trend is clearly down.

with risk aversion and general dollar weakness, more likely to take out nov low before any upside.

i have no position in this one, but am considering a possiblility of the following,
let's see how this one ends.