Thread: Discuss USD/JPY, GBP/JPY, and other JPY Pairs

thank you very much for the advices and the information for Mr.Lee, Mr.Gregory and Mr.Sean
now i choose to lock the position, take a short position at 86.80
How can i know that the trend is still strong to downtrend?? so that i can cut my long position, then hold my short position to gain a more profit?? why the usd/jpy currency still in downtrend?? is that because the fundamental or the technical?? and what is SSI?? why we use that??
sorry for the questions, but i really want to improve my knowledge, and i do appreciate for the answers..

Originally Posted by muz_malaysian

glad everybody r here.

We are glad you are here as well!

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

Hello cahyadi. Good to have you with us! A break below the 86.20 area should open up 84.67. The trend is down as was mentioned earlier. Price is making lower swing highs and lower swing lows in a stair step pattern down. However, a break above 89.14 could indicate a reversal in trend.

so this mean that for a couple day ahead jpy would be in 84.67 area?? i use the 9 ema and 100 ema for close to know the trend, if the 9 ema cross the 100 ema line upward , can i say that the trend will be in uptrend? or just a retracement??
once again thanks for the reply Mr. Gregory

Originally Posted by cahyadi

so this mean that for a couple day ahead jpy would be in 84.67 area?? i use the 9 ema and 100 ema for close to know the trend, if the 9 ema cross the 100 ema line upward , can i say that the trend will be in uptrend? or just a retracement??
once again thanks for the reply Mr. Gregory

I've learnt to use the 200 and 50 DAY SMAs to guage the trend. I strongly recommend the FXCM Power Course. You will learn (through video and instructor support) about various indicators, time frames, support and resistance, etc. It's a solid start to your FOREX education. There are also live chart, instructor led webinars you can get involved in. I'm not sure how you can get to those without a live FXCM account. Maybe you can get access using a demo account. I'm sure Greg can point you in the right direction. It's well worth it and FREE!

All the best,

Lee.

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

Hello Lee, a year ago the SSI for USD/JPY was over 7 and it dropped 300 pips in one day. However, I have seen bearish extremes in USD/CHF and in a rare instance retail traders got it right and USD/CHF went up to 1.1700. So no indicator is 100% correct. This is why we look at technicals support and resistance levels to confirm the SSI signal.

Thanks Greg.
Yes, indicators do have their off days, but I think SSI is a good measure of how the market is stacking up. I look for things like, price action with MACD and RSI divergence, but I've been caught out with that method.

I have the basics, but really need to develop the connections to move me forward.

All the best,

Lee.

I would watch what the current administration does about the Bush tax cuts for a precursor to the direction of the risk trade - if they decide to extend the tax cuts -because raising taxes now on anyone is a bad idea - the equities markets and the risk trade will rocket in my opinion - what do you guys think???

JT

Originally Posted by Arthurs

So far it looks as I expected before, lets see if it breaks 131.27 support line and open doors to 129 level

Hi ALL,

Never a dull in moment in forex,....oh wait, except today. SHEESH! She's sliding around today like a snake not a dragon!

Anyway, I liked your chart Arthurs!....To me it screams buy! Unless we get a break of 132(close) on the 4 hr I am pretty dang bullish here!!!!

She's ready to blow boys!

Having said that, I would also like to make this point about summer FX markets...they are highly unpredicatable and extremely! range bound, so after watching the doldrums set in we could get just listless trading for the next 4-6 weeks...., and I think the S&P will settle below 1040 before a retest of 1130, which from the risk perspective lends itself to more yen strength. Wait and see...


Hey about the GAP north...I tried to illustrate it with a daily chart last week (couldn't load it properly)....its just that the dailies could potentially fill the space between the April 19th,27th close and low respectively and June 3rd, 14th close and high respectively....that's all. If you look at all the pivot swing high/lows from the 160ish top, we seem to be able to retest them repeatedly, which is consistent with a major wave 5, and near the weekly downtrend line! Hey, 4-6 weeks could send us hurdling toward 128 and then 137-139, so its anyone's guess. TLORD seems to think 128 is closer than 139! Could be-- cause that fits with risk aversion in equities....and 1040 or less on the S&P and the retest of 1130. Its just that everything and everyone is so dang bearish!

COOL,Joes, where u at dogs!? We need bears commentary......and you've been dead right on that side.

SIRFX

Originally Posted by sirfx

Hi ALL,

Never a dull in moment in forex,....oh wait, except today. SHEESH! She's sliding around today like a snake not a dragon!

Anyway, I liked your chart Arthurs!....To me it screams buy! Unless we get a break of 132(close) on the 4 hr I am pretty dang bullish here!!!!

She's ready to blow boys!

Having said that, I would also like to make this point about summer FX markets...they are highly unpredicatable and extremely! range bound, so after watching the doldrums set in we could get just listless trading for the next 4-6 weeks...., and I think the S&P will settle below 1040 before a retest of 1130, which from the risk perspective lends itself to more yen strength. Wait and see...


Hey about the GAP north...I tried to illustrate it with a daily chart last week (couldn't load it properly)....its just that the dailies could potentially fill the space between the April 19th,27th close and low respectively and June 3rd, 14th close and high respectively....that's all. If you look at all the pivot swing high/lows from the 160ish top, we seem to be able to retest them repeatedly, which is consistent with a major wave 5, and near the weekly downtrend line! Hey, 4-6 weeks could send us hurdling toward 128 and then 137-139, so its anyone's guess. TLORD seems to think 128 is closer than 139! Could be-- cause that fits with risk aversion in equities....and 1040 or less on the S&P and the retest of 1130. Its just that everything and everyone is so dang bearish!

COOL,Joes, where u at dogs!? We need bears commentary......and you've been dead right on that side.

SIRFX

Ha Ha Watch the Herd, 128 might be closer now, but not for much longer.

I'm for staying Long, but will have my shorts close to hand

P.s Sooner rather than later.

Originally Posted by Time Lord

Ha Ha Watch the Herd, 128 might be closer now, but not for much longer.

I'm for staying Long, but will have my shorts close to hand

P.s Sooner rather than later.

Excellllllllent!

SIRFX

Still holding long from 132.6 and will contiue to do so unless I see a daily close below 131.30 . All the best bull or bear and may you all pocket pips .

Here is what I think for the next 12 hours. Once it breaks out of a consolidation area it should penetrate 131.30 support line and open doors for 126 support but lets wait and see anything is possible and will happen...

I'm vey bearish and will look for the next breakout to occur to enter short but till then I'm still bullish...

P.S. SSI suggest for more losses, so be careful on longs

Here we come bears!!! Arghhhh!!!!

Market so bored. closed my short @132.10 for 75 pips.

Originally Posted by muz_malaysian

Market so bored. closed my short @132.10 for 75 pips.

hye guys...

last week i told about downside continuation if price can go below 134 level.. ..

here are 15M TF, 1234 pattern..

look likes price now are sitting and playing with 23.6 fibo.. if turn lower again from here, then 161.8 fibo is at 13087 and 261.8 fibo at 129365 ( i doubt it can reach here, but... who know.. )

i will long heavily if price can touch 130 level...

take care abd have a good trading day ahead...

add :- i now short heavily au/jpy at 7653.. the other position id short e/u from 12998 and gu from 15470..

Originally Posted by wan0903

hye guys...

last week i told about downside continuation if price can go below 134 level.. ..

here are 15M TF, 1234 pattern..

look likes price now are sitting and playing with 23.6 fibo.. if turn lower again from here, then 161.8 fibo is at 13087 and 261.8 fibo at 129365 ( i doubt it can reach here, but... who know.. )

i will long heavily if price can touch 130 level...

take care abd have a good trading day ahead...

add :- i now short heavily au/jpy at 7653.. the other position id short e/u from 12998 and gu from 15470..

Thanks for your charts brother wan,

I have longed since last night's drop to 131.8, with longs from 131.8 to 132.5. My target includes .500 fib at 133.8 and .618 fib at 134.3. Valid if 4H candle can close above .382 fib at 133.4 (failure to close above on yesterday's 4H candle).

Will turn bearish once again when 4H candle is red and bearish

At the mean time, happy trading to all

It has been going down. So I sell rallies near resistance.