Thread: Discuss USD/JPY, GBP/JPY, and other JPY Pairs

Originally Posted by deha

It seems your target of 118 for EUR/JPY might actually get hit

That USD/JPY part of your equation is kicking in!

Originally Posted by sdcasper

hey greg, did you stop the twitter tweats?

I do Pip and Run at 6:00 AM ET and it has been a little challenging. I am actually getting more followers since I have taken a break from tweeting!

Originally Posted by s_slo87

i think it is a bargin to get in at these levels looking for a longer term trade. I really do not foresee japan allowing sub 80's level on the USD/JPY trade. the low of 79.55 will be hard to break imo. if so well we could see a massive decline to record lows again. BOJ would intervene and boost it up again. Well maybe not BOJ directly but a sub arm called KAMPO. They were spotted around 80 flat With QE2 ending shortly i think people will be coming back into the USD overall on the hopes of a small rise in interest rates. Dollar will rally if there is any hint of an increase because the market is so short the dollar any think suggesting a rise will cause people to cover their shorts and it will be brutal being on the wrong side.

Hey Sean,

Looks like you are right as USD/JPY is moving higher!

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

You may need to be content with an up 0.62% move in GBP/JPY today.

Gbp/Jpy broken 129.50 there was no any violent move up, after reaching 130 we have violent move down cool :P

This is why I didn't want to short the Yen. I knew something like the Greek vote could spike it EUR, GBP spiked and came back (AUD didn't blink much! Woopie for my champion!). Yen is still rallying.

Two yen rallying situations occurred - risk AND weak dollar! Yen heaven. What goes up must come down... let's see where my A/J can set up a nice long term carry trade.

greg, i like that you saw that break out to the up side, but i think it could be a fake out. the way that i see it is, that down trend is still intact for now. yes daily does seem to want to go up from here, but 4 hour looks like we could head back down. alot of indication that it will head lower. i like round number, such as 128. 129, but i especially like the rounder number's such as 130, 120, 140. price always finds resis or supp on the rounder #. also 100MA is bang on 130 which gives it more reason to head down from here. again price on the daily wants to go up so maybe it will want to test 128 again before heading higher. or we can just go straight passed that but for now, i favor the down side unless above 130 is broken with a clean break on the 4 hour/daily. just thinking aloud

If you want to short the monster go for it as i see strong resistance around 86.25/30...Why? Well on the daily the 50 day MVA comes in at 86.28 and that happens to correspond with the 38.2% fibo level drawn from the high from 90 to the low of 84.05. 100 day MVA was resistance on the break below but is now support from the recent rally.

Attachment 90454


Also if you draw the downtrend line from 4/28 it happens to be right on with 86.25/30 furthering my case of strong resistance there. A break above well it would be nasty.

Attachment 90455

That value is also today's R2 level.

EDIT: Sean, you'll love this AUD/USD chart, but exact same can be applied to AUD/JPY today

Nice job! I manged a few pips on EUR/USD. Not so lucky right now.

I think I had more luck than skills there I am puzzled how USD/JPY tanked 50 pips along with 100 pip dips on GBP/USD and EUR/USD while AUD barely blinked 10 pips.

Originally Posted by deha

I think I had more luck than skills there I am puzzled how USD/JPY tanked 50 pips along with 100 pip dips on GBP/USD and EUR/USD while AUD barely blinked 10 pips.

European problems and austerity.

Yeah, but with risk around, Aussie should have sank together with the rest.

EDIT: Well "hammer the greenbuck" is the tune of the week it seems. Even Swissie is kicking it LOL!
Sean, ever thought the entire market seems to be dancing around AUD/JPY? It stalled when AUD/JPY was supposed to break 84, it stalled now when it wanted to break 86.3... several other such occasions.

BTW, I sure hope you're not shorting the Aussie on a Wednesday! -8 pips on the spread and negative carry only.
EDIT: Actually that's on a regular day, -10 pips for carry, -3 at least for spread, so -13 on Wednesday.

Originally Posted by jogold18

greg, i like that you saw that break out to the up side, but i think it could be a fake out. the way that i see it is, that down trend is still intact for now. yes daily does seem to want to go up from here, but 4 hour looks like we could head back down. alot of indication that it will head lower. i like round number, such as 128. 129, but i especially like the rounder number's such as 130, 120, 140. price always finds resis or supp on the rounder #. also 100MA is bang on 130 which gives it more reason to head down from here. again price on the daily wants to go up so maybe it will want to test 128 again before heading higher. or we can just go straight passed that but for now, i favor the down side unless above 130 is broken with a clean break on the 4 hour/daily. just thinking aloud

Hello
Yep, my bias also down. 130.12 is also the 4hr target for R1. Has failed to breach that during this pull up. However the 4hr candle that is forming looks on its way to becoming a dragon fly doji. If it does then i will re-think - but at the moment i prefer shorts.

Good luck.

I completely agree. The structure is intensly bearish and it would require a lot in order to change that. I'd consider buying only above 133.50

Originally Posted by not_now

I completely agree. The structure is intensly bearish and it would require a lot in order to change that. I'd consider buying only above 133.50

So your SL is 133.50 ?