Thread: Discuss USD/JPY, GBP/JPY, and other JPY Pairs

Originally Posted by Alejandro Zambrano

Hello Dennis Your chart looks good - thank you for sharing . what level are you aming for with your short EUR/JPY position.


Good to see that you use the strong/weak analysis Have you noticed if we get any convergence? Example; AUD was just 1-2 months ago good to short but it has now been stronger than most other currency pairs.

Hi Alejandro, That was the first time I posted a chart so was not sure if it had gone through. I am short Eur/Jpy as long as we stay below that 38.2 fib line, my target is a test of June 1st low, if I am right I can get a 3 to 1 risk reward. I am a longer term trend trader and like to catch these trend changes early in the move. As far as the Strong/Weak analysis I have been experimenting with different time frames. Using Richard Kirvo's method of 4hr charts and 200 ma my rank order is NZD-AUD-USD-CAD-JPY-GBP-EUR-CHF, Now if I use June 1st as my starting point my rank order is NZD-AUD-GBP-CHF-EUR-CAD-USD-JPY And finally I ran my last S/W using the June 21st reversal with a rank order of JPY-USD-CAD-GBP-NZD-AUD-EUR-CHF. What I can summarize by using 3 different time frames is there are some currencies that are stronger then others in all three time frames, Examples NZD is stronger then AUD in all three time frames as is AUD stronger then EUR. I welcome your thoughts, Thanks

Originally Posted by Uber FX nUblet7

This is why Greg calls it "The Beast"

Originally Posted by Bal

EURJPY!!!!!!!!!!

EUR/JPY Wave 4 Correction looks complete- Shorts look good from here with stop above Wave 4 High

Originally Posted by Dennis S

Hi Alejandro, That was the first time I posted a chart so was not sure if it had gone through. I am short Eur/Jpy as long as we stay below that 38.2 fib line, my target is a test of June 1st low, if I am right I can get a 3 to 1 risk reward. I am a longer term trend trader and like to catch these trend changes early in the move. As far as the Strong/Weak analysis I have been experimenting with different time frames. Using Richard Kirvo's method of 4hr charts and 200 ma my rank order is NZD-AUD-USD-CAD-JPY-GBP-EUR-CHF, Now if I use June 1st as my starting point my rank order is NZD-AUD-GBP-CHF-EUR-CAD-USD-JPY And finally I ran my last S/W using the June 21st reversal with a rank order of JPY-USD-CAD-GBP-NZD-AUD-EUR-CHF. What I can summarize by using 3 different time frames is there are some currencies that are stronger then others in all three time frames, Examples NZD is stronger then AUD in all three time frames as is AUD stronger then EUR. I welcome your thoughts, Thanks

Hello Dennis,
Alex is will be back tomorrow as it is 6:00 in the UK. However, here is a website that you may find helpful that charts relative currency strength:
Forex Market Hours

Regards,

Greg

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

Hello Dennis,
Alex is will be back tomorrow as it is 6:00 in the UK. However, here is a website that you may find helpful that charts relative currency strength:
Forex Market Hours

Regards,

Greg

Thanks Greg, Great chart, I may be able to throw out my Excel spreadsheet now

Originally Posted by Dennis S

Thanks Greg, Great chart, I may be able to throw out my Excel spreadsheet now

You are very welcome Dennis! I would hold on to that spreadsheet just in case!

Here is a advanced super-deluxe model of that website I gave you: Currency index

Got a long trade in for EUR/JPY at 99.31 with a tight stop at 99.19 .....
Hoping for a minimum of 40 pips... at long term support on daily charts.

Well. Volatility is to be expected. I am short in the AUD/JPY with the Daily FX signals. Just about all I can trust for the time being. The market has had me fooled way too much over the past 2 weeks. Some winners, many losers.

I just read a FoxNoise Business Article about Merkel dead set against any immediate measures to help any EU countries without a stronger structural safeguards and controls on budget policy. In other words, she isn't going to lift a finger unless they sell what little left these needy countries have left of their sovereignty in order to get some relief.

France wants shared liability, I don't think they should doubt when she says it isn't going to happen w/o some way to control the finances of these needy nations. There has been too much speculation and enthusiasm leading into this summit and I am willing to bet it is misplaced.

Pretty much I think this will just be one big waste of time and pomp and circumstance will only lead to the broken record being played of "we want a better Europe" blah, blah, bleh, bleh, but Merkel has absolutely 0 incentive to want to simply take on other EU nation's debts and liabilities. I don't even think she will fold to that with a banking and fiscal union. We'll have to wait to see what kind of word soup they will use to try and calm the markets.

Basically I get the feeling that this summit is a way to stall the markets from falling off a cliff, and once traders figure this out towards the close of the week, downside trading should be unprecedented. Given Merkel's quotes in public and private. particularly the one where she states, "I don't think we will see that (Fiscal/Banking Union) in my (Merkel's)lifetime.",(WOW) then all this optimism is going to burst and sink like a hot air balloon with no more gas in the tank to heat up the air keeping it afloat. It makes you wonder why they haven't released all this Euro-Zone data on time lol. I bet you'll see positive "quotes" released if the market reacts to any news release like it did the German Unemployment. Looks like unemployment is up across the board as France released some ugly employment numbers that the market kind of brushed off.

Looking for a pretty bad sell off by the end of US trading and even more retreat by Friday.

Originally Posted by Uber FX nUblet7

Well. Volatility is to be expected. I am short in the AUD/JPY with the Daily FX signals. Just about all I can trust for the time being. The market has had me fooled way too much over the past 2 weeks. Some winners, many losers.

I just read a FoxNoise Business Article about Merkel dead set against any immediate measures to help any EU countries without a stronger structural safeguards and controls on budget policy. In other words, she isn't going to lift a finger unless they sell what little left these needy countries have left of their sovereignty in order to get some relief.

France wants shared liability, I don't think they should doubt when she says it isn't going to happen w/o some way to control the finances of these needy nations. There has been too much speculation and enthusiasm leading into this summit and I am willing to bet it is misplaced.

Pretty much I think this will just be one big waste of time and pomp and circumstance will only lead to the broken record being played of "we want a better Europe" blah, blah, bleh, bleh, but Merkel has absolutely 0 incentive to want to simply take on other EU nation's debts and liabilities. I don't even think she will fold to that with a banking and fiscal union. We'll have to wait to see what kind of word soup they will use to try and calm the markets.

Basically I get the feeling that this summit is a way to stall the markets from falling off a cliff, and once traders figure this out towards the close of the week, downside trading should be unprecedented. Given Merkel's quotes in public and private. particularly the one where she states, "I don't think we will see that (Fiscal/Banking Union) in my (Merkel's)lifetime.",(WOW) then all this optimism is going to burst and sink like a hot air balloon with no more gas in the tank to heat up the air keeping it afloat. It makes you wonder why they haven't released all this Euro-Zone data on time lol. I bet you'll see positive "quotes" released if the market reacts to any news release like it did the German Unemployment. Looks like unemployment is up across the board as France released some ugly employment numbers that the market kind of brushed off.

Looking for a pretty bad sell off by the end of US trading and even more retreat by Friday.

Hey Uber! You summed this up beautifully. I was looking at individual stocks and risk currencies wave counts, they are all eerily completing wave 4 up moves and getting reading to drop in wave 5 impulse waves south. There is a full moon Tuesday, July 3rd and King US dollar could find itself very much on to on Independence Day, July 4th. Yen is looking to be a safe haven of choice as well.

Small long usd/jpy hopefully respect 4hr bottom trend line@ 79.321 tight stop 79.190 see were it go"s (80.00 Target)

Small Bounce makes a Right Shoulder to complete an H-N-S pattern?

Charts from today's Bulls vs Bears webinar


Main presentation
Bulls vs bears spread betting market update June 28 2012on DailyFX Live Trading Room - live streaming video powered by Livestream

QA session
QA Bulls vs bears spread betting market update June 28 2012on DailyFX Live Trading Room - live streaming video powered by Livestream

USDJPY

Charts from today's Bulls vs Bears webinar

Check out the charts and share your view in the various threads

EURUSD, EURGBP
http://forexforums.dailyfx.com/eur-u...ml#post1216730

GBPUSD
http://forexforums.dailyfx.com/gbp-u...ml#post1216738

USDJPY
http://forexforums.dailyfx.com/yen-p...ml#post1216736

AUDUSD, EURAUD
http://forexforums.dailyfx.com/commo...ml#post1216733


USoil, Silver, UKOil and Gold
http://forexforums.dailyfx.com/globa...ml#post1216732


FTSE100, SWE30 and SP500
http://forexforums.dailyfx.com/globa...ml#post1216732

SSI Details:

GBPJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPJPY stands at 2.51 as nearly 71% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 2.19 as 69% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 4.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% stronger since last week. Short positions are 9.1% lower than yesterday and 12.0% weaker since last week. Open interest is 0.0% weaker than yesterday and 5.7% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPJPY losses.


USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 6.84 as nearly 87% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 6.07 as 86% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 5.7% higher than yesterday and 37.9% stronger since last week. Short positions are 6.2% lower than yesterday and 37.5% weaker since last week. Open interest is 4.0% stronger than yesterday and 8.9% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

I would like to go long USD/JPY. I still think black swan 94 high is possible. But when I look at the the long ratio. I change my mind. Thanks for the SSI Gregory

Originally Posted by Luxuriant

I would like to go long USD/JPY. I still think black swan 94 high is possible. But when I look at the the long ratio. I change my mind. Thanks for the SSI Gregory

You are very welcome, Luxuriant. The 10 year treasury yield is the key to the USD/JPY. As the yield continues to fall, USD/JPY drops too. A rise in yields maybe above the 1.70% level on the US 10 year we could see a meaningful rally.