Thread: Discuss USD/JPY, GBP/JPY, and other JPY Pairs

attached are two fibonacci patterns charts....... you will see that on the 4 hour chart is a significant fib level..... big time resistance....

You can look at Brad's charts, he uses the fibs very acutely....... as well as the trend lines. usually his charts tell the story.....

My feeling is that I like to wait until I see a clear signal on a higher time frame before any sort of entry

I just had another look at Brad's chart........ I think he tells the story well.... an opportunity for bears...... but the setup has not yet appeared.....

I would wait until there is a clear signal from the price bars and stay out until it shows.

Originally Posted by Blaiserboy

I just had another look at Brad's chart........ I think he tells the story well.... an opportunity for bears...... but the setup has not yet appeared.....

I would wait until there is a clear signal from the price bars and stay out until it shows.

The Fib Pure Resistence is @96.22..on the Monthly Basis,..

the step we have to define is the entry......

and that would be for me, a nice clear candle pattern such as an evening star....

We have to define the time frames in which we want to work..... and line up the s&r and the entry of choice. we might have to wait a while, we may miss the move, but we have to ensure that the entry is foolproof and with the trend.... at least that is my thinking......

Other people use different methods....... and I am sure that they have studied those thoroughly.....


The best way to judge an entry's quality is to attempt to find five or six reasons to not make the entry..... that will illustrate it's validity quickly.

Originally Posted by Blaiserboy

the step we have to define is the entry......

and that would be for me, a nice clear candle pattern such as an evening star....



The best way to judge an entry's quality is to attempt to find five or six reasons to not make the entry..... that will illustrate it's validity quickly.

Originally Posted by Blaiserboy

I had just Another look at Brad chart

ARE u want to Trade on Monthly Basis!!!!

and Second see His Chart saying Also It Back Drop of 96.12!!!

Originally Posted by Blaiserboy

the step we have to define is the entry......

and that would be for me, a nice clear candle pattern such as an evening star....

We have to define the time frames in which we want to work..... and line up the s&r and the entry of choice. we might have to wait a while, we may miss the move, but we have to ensure that the entry is foolproof and with the trend.... at least that is my thinking......

Other people use different methods....... and I am sure that they have studied those thoroughly.....


The best way to judge an entry's quality is to attempt to find five or six reasons to not make the entry..... that will illustrate it's validity quickly.

okay As u saying bear are HEAVY!!! but I am BALBOA


Attachment 34674


cheer ,, I have to sleep now!!! 3.33am

one thing about the famous Balboa that we all know....... he knew his skill and perfected it......

He knew well in advance what he was going to do in every situation where as you are still Balboa Jr.... still experimenting and learning.

Originally Posted by forexdjedi

hi everyone,

im new to trading, and i've been watching the USD JPY for a bit. i noticed that it doesnt move the way the other major pairs do (eur/usd, gbp/usd, usd/chf). for example, i was noticing that generally when economic data shows that the USD is strong, usd/jpy will trend downward. and the reverse also, when data generally shows the USD is weak, usd/jpy will trend upwards.

now, im not saying this is an absolute. definately there were instances where usd/jpy moved in the direction of my prediction. but i was wondering if there was some type of correlation as to why its seems the USD/JPY has an inverse correlation to economic data?

Unfortunately, the relationships between currency pairs and underlying fundamental drivers are not as straightforward as one would like them. This pair for example does not follow those other majors for many reason; but a few of those factors are equivalently low interest rates, poor growth outlook, massive debt loads (Japan has the largest public debt as a percentage of GDP), and investment-stalling policy in place going forward.

It doesn't hold 1-to-1; but I would suggest following equities or Treasury yields as a general trend check with USDJPY rather than the other majors.

Originally Posted by Blaiserboy

. still experimenting and learning.

DOCTOR Never Stop Experimenting To Find the Cure Of Cancer!!!


Runner Never Stop When He or she Not Beat the Next Record Or Running!!


Tiger Woods Never Stop Of His True Passion Of Golf!!!!


Vincy Balboa Never Stop Of His Trading In Forex !!!

I'm new in this too, but I will take the risk and show what I think about this pair.

The daily graph shows a clear downtrend (but as usual all the trends moves in ranges until getting the resistance and support), in an hour chart the trend is going up to look after the top of 96.4, but... the hour support has been broken a few hours ago, so I think is starting to fall down and I will put my eggs on short position. As someone else said, I think a bear is on it's way. What do you think?


Attached are the daily and hour charts.

Originally Posted by crossleyjuan

I'm new in this too, but I will take the risk and show what I think about this pair.

The daily graph shows a clear downtrend (but as usual all the trends moves in ranges until getting the resistance and support), in an hour chart the trend is going up to look after the top of 96.4, but... the hour support has been broken a few hours ago, so I think is starting to fall down and I will put my eggs on short position. As someone else said, I think a bear is on it's way. What do you think?


Attached are the daily and hour charts.

My good Man!!!

If i am not Wrong you are talking 40.2 pip Loss of a Limit on 40.1...I dont know That u Hike Or not, But My good Man U Should Have read this First,,,,,,click here Risk to Reward: Forex Currency Trading Risk to Reward Ratio

Originally Posted by VINCY BALBOA

My good Man!!!

If i am not Wrong you are talking 40.2 pip Loss of a Limit on 40.1...I dont know That u Hike Or not, But My good Man U Should Have read this First,,,,,,click here Risk to Reward: Forex Currency Trading Risk to Reward Ratio

Don't worry, I already did this before, I changed a little bit my strategy sometime ago... instead of trying to win 4/10 using the 2:1 risk/reward I won 9/10 trades using higher stops... it's working very good... I also use manual trailing stops in order to move the stops in my favor.

besides the risk/reward, what do you think of my analysis?

Originally Posted by crossleyjuan

Don't worry, I already did this before, I changed a little bit my strategy sometime ago... instead of trying to win 4/10 using the 2:1 risk/reward I won 9/10 trades using higher stops... it's working very good... I also use manual trailing stops in order to move the stops in my favor.

besides the risk/reward, what do you think of my analysis?

I agree with your risk:reward comments. We have to consider the same thing when building automated trading systems. Sometimes, an even risk/reward (perhaps a higher risk) can make for a better overall strategy as it makes stops more flexible and allow for a higher number of winning trades.

As for the technical setup itself, though it pushed higher this morning; I still thought it was a good overall setup. It just so happens that sanctity of these trendlines pulling double duty as both support and then resistance (and the other way around) has waned as congestion has set in.

When looking for breakouts, I try to confirm momentum through other pairs for the individual currencies or some other underlying driver (like risk appetite). So, while we say USDJPY push that trendline, there was little sign of risk aversion in other corners of the market; so it skewed your probabilities.

Still, the position was well crafted with a good entry, perfectly reasonable objective and nearby stop.

I don't know how many of you guys follow the yen crosses, but it looks like there is a good head-and-shoulders formation for both EURJPY and CHFJPY. This is not surprising giving the euro and franc often move in lock-step; but it is a high-pressure technical formation that could produce either a reversal or breakout. If you were savvy enough, you could look to go short one and have pending long orders on the other. With the right stops and targets, you would accept modest risk; but look at significant potential reward.

Originally Posted by John Kicklighter

I don't know how many of you guys follow the yen crosses, but it looks like there is a good head-and-shoulders formation for both EURJPY and CHFJPY. This is not surprising giving the euro and franc often move in lock-step; but it is a high-pressure technical formation that could produce either a reversal or breakout. If you were savvy enough, you could look to go short one and have pending long orders on the other. With the right stops and targets, you would accept modest risk; but look at significant potential reward.

My Good Man John Kicklighter!!!


you Can View Of My very Previous post!!! but I appreciate your Work!! tx

Originally Posted by VINCY BALBOA

hi Mr.Cmellon


Thank you For Ur Openion, And I Have seen ur Delta…

Yes I Love To Buy Now..

But Mr,Cmellon I like If U View My Chart. I just Mention So Many Point Of Usd/jpy..

First Is U can see The Another Previous Following Trend Just Coming About the Starting Month Of May.. And Second Is You Mentioned A Trend Coming From july Starting 92.09. But I just Really Care about Your Trend.. Becoz If It does Break So may be It Can be Break Down Side.. This is my Another Opinion About Usd/jpy, U can see the Dark Grey Line….

Now If I talk About your Point Of View As U mention About Your Delta Mr.Cmellon. I am Really Really Happy If that Could happened That Touch 98.7 Level. So My Another Thought is Just Similar As U have seen Comple Of Past Days that Happened to The GBP/JPY,, Yes You can see The Little Chart of Above Is the Gbp/jpy, That Showing -&S.. So It Will May be take a Step Like to Usd/jpy a Inverted -&S!! U can see the Blue Like and DOT’s,, As I just Mention..

May be It Couldn’t Happened.. But this is My View…




Attachment 34598


I like to see Future Like You Do, But You see Future Very Perfectly So Thats why I LOVE TO!!!