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11-28-2009, 11:25 AM #7186
Personally I'm about as fed up as anybody with overall USD weakness, especially against CHF and JPY. Still in zero loss position with CHF, keep an eye on trades all the time, if it blows, S&R pdq.
Damnation. When will USD finally rise from the grave? Trading USD/CHF below par last week was anethama. Each time USD/DKK tries to rise a bit, it's hammered down again straight away. Will we see USD strength against European/Asian currencies (USD/SGD another fine example) make reasonable inroads in the near future? I doubt it. I see EUR/USD heading to my target for longs to 1.5230 soon.
8 hour chart shows JPY/USD about to short very soon, which will give a break on daily. Am looking to go a fairly sizable long U/J soon.
Last edited by Tigger; 11-28-2009 at 12:12 PM.
11-28-2009, 12:24 PM #7187
Reckon GBP/USD will remain in range for quite a while, and U/J will have some big upside soon. Longs are preferred from here on Geppy. Current longs doing well, can't see much downside for a while. Price refuses to go lower than around 140.00. Possible triple bottom daily chart. I can see major upside from here, although the road upwards will be long and hard. At the moment, I wouldn't short at all. Everything looks hard down against the Yen, however with a few upswings, 'techs can change.
Some news from the other week, before the Market decided to rape the Japanese export sector.
Nov 26, 2009 (BBC Monitoring via COMTEX) -- Tokyo, Nov. 26 Kyodo - Japan stepped up its guard on Thursday as the yen continued its rise against the US dollar, with Finance Minister Hirohisa Fujii saying Tokyo is "carefully watching" whether the ongoing currency movements are abnormal.
Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama told reporters it is "not preferable if foreign exchange rates move rapidly." "Although the economy is not necessarily experiencing good conditions, the yen is rising...there are tremendous difficulties," he said.
Still, Hatoyama said after the dollar hit a 14-year low in the lower 86 yen range that the government must steer the economy properly to "avoid it from slipping into a double-dip recession" and there is an urgent need to design effective measures under a planned second extra budget and the budget for fiscal 2010.
Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirofumi Hirano voiced concern that a further rise in the yen against the dollar would adversely affect the Japanese economy.
"If the yen rises at an accelerated pace, there is no doubt there will be an impact (on the economy)," the top government spokesman said at a news conference.
Hirano indicated that the government may have to map out additional steps and change the size of the supplementary budget if the yen's gains continue to extend against the dollar.
Hirano said he exchanged views on the possible impact of the rising yen with Fujii and the two agreed that the government will keep close tabs on movements in the currency market.
"We did not thrash out that far," Hirano said, when asked whether they agreed that Japan may need to intervene in the market to curb the yen's rise.
Fujii told reporters at the Finance Ministry in the evening that it is still "at the stage of determining" whether foreign-exchange rates are moving extraordinarily.
He said, however, that Japan will "take appropriate measures" if foreign exchange rates "move abnormally." "That is the way of thinking in the world and that is also Japan's view," said Fujii earlier in the day, suggesting Tokyo will intervene in the market if necessary.
Japanese monetary authorities have not stepped into the currency market since March 2004.
Fujii has attributed the dollar's recent weakness to market expectations that the United States will maintain its low-interest-rate policy, noting that the dollar's slump is not stemming from an increase in the yen's strength.
On Thursday, the minister said a strong dollar is in "the national interest" of the United States and there is no change in Japan's support for that stance.
Echoing Fujii's views, Hatoyama said the yen's rally is basically caused by the dollar's weakness, not stemming from an increase in the yen's strength.
Fears are growing among corporate executives and policymakers that a further rise in the yen would derail Japan's economy - highly dependent on the performance of the export-oriented manufacturing industry - from recovering from the worst recession in decades.
High-tech firms and automakers have slashed jobs and production levels to emerge from the red, but corporate executives believe restructuring steps alone will not be enough to keep them competitive if the yen continues to appreciate.
"The current level of the yen is extremely problematic," Shoji Muneoka, chairman of the Japan Iron and Steel Federation, told a news conference. "A stronger yen could serve as a trigger for double-dip recession." Muneoka, also president of Nippon Steel Corp., urged the government to take aggressive measures, indicating a view that market intervention is necessary to stem the dollar's further fall.
"Unless (the yen) is brought back to a certain level in some form, there will be severe damage to the Japanese economy," he said.
Japanese exporters have on average assumed exchange rates of around 90 to 95 yen to the dollar for the current fiscal year.
While many have changed their assumptions to more conservative rates for the October-March latter half of the current fiscal year, a further rise in the yen will heavily erode the profits they make abroad.
Toyota Motor Corp., for example, assumes the dollar will trade at the 90 yen level in the second half. A rise of 1 yen will erase about 25 billion yen from its operating profit on an annual basis, according to the automaker.
Last edited by Tigger; 11-28-2009 at 01:20 PM.
11-28-2009, 06:49 PM #7188
Originally Posted by Tigger
it made 150-140 in about a week.
A rebound can be but hold long positions is dangerous in my view.
Monday there are macro mover data both in japan and uk.
Last edited by PCC; 11-28-2009 at 06:56 PM.
11-28-2009, 10:05 PM #7189
As I've mentioned in prior posts there is a long term fibonacci line at 148.15 and price has been swinging back and fourth across the level for quite some time (price likes to get sticky at those long term levels).... I see potential for price to continue to do the same, but right now it looks like price is due for a big down side thrust to finish the strong bear move we've been seeing lately.. At that point I'll be watching for a possible up move back towards 148.15 that will offer up another short opportunity at resistance... ....
Just an idea here.. Nothing cast in stone...
GBPJPY DAILY CHART ----->
Last edited by brad_1199; 11-28-2009 at 10:19 PM.
11-29-2009, 12:54 AM #7190
I suggest caution for those who are either Long already or Feeling Bullish on JPY Crosses. The picture is very much Bearish as yet until we see a strong commitment from BOJ to intervene
11-29-2009, 04:48 AM #7191
U/J will rise this week. Big upside 100% for USD against Yen. Cable set to fly. Anyone short will be taken out IMO. Trading from long side only.
11-29-2009, 05:54 AM #7192
You are joking. This is set to FLY!!!!! Next week will tell if I'm right, but IMO 8 hour cross will take USD/JPY back to 100.00 plus level. Don't get stopped on your shorts. This is THE biggest JPY short ever.
Originally Posted by asherewt
Last edited by Tigger; 11-29-2009 at 06:09 AM.
11-29-2009, 06:30 AM #7193
Never down More then 79.75…
04/1995; OPEN 89.706 HIGH 89.826 LOW 79.756 CLOSE 84.246
In 1995 04, 01 UJ Touch the 79.75 Level.
That was only ON STRONG SUPPORT in candle wise 79.75 …
and in Days ..
The ALL JPY Pair fell ..Attachment 42807
and in weekly USD/JPY -160 -1.81%
and More side the asia
China yuan should strengthen
NANJING, China – China should allow its currency to strengthen against the euro and other major currencies, for its own sake as well as that of the global economy, top finance officials of the single-currency euro zone said Sunday.
Euro zone officials: China yuan should strengthen - Yahoo! News
Probably If we not seen the surety of Buying the $ for Economy side so no Body really can think about Buy the Long Term Buy $ for couple of Month
Last edited by VINCY BALBOA; 11-29-2009 at 07:02 AM.
11-29-2009, 08:24 AM #7194
Originally Posted by Tigger
I'm a new poster, but not new to forex.
This is a HUGE move you are speaking of.
DEC Yen futures topped out Friday at 11790 (equates to 8482 USD/JPY)
Such a move represents more than 22K per contract - a whole lot of Xmas cash for the boys in Chicago.
I don't doubt they might try to pull something like this off, but how do you see
something of this magnitude unfolding ? It would be a bloodbath for hedgefunds, no ?
11-29-2009, 08:24 AM #7195
Whats wrong my friend ? I'm just suggesting caution as there is nothing showing to support for a Long call as yet ?
If BOJ plays out and things change we'll all go long but till then whats the harm to be cautious ? ...
Originally Posted by Tigger
11-29-2009, 09:41 AM #7196
I'm new here. I agree with Asherewt's point of view. For now there's nothing that supports a long $/Y call. Not technically, not fundamentally. As traders we should watch out for believe systems like: it's gone too low, it must go up now. As long as there are no reliable reversal signs, $/Y will plummet further to historic lows IMHO. Of course, BOJ intervention looms. Indeed there's no harm in being cautious.
11-29-2009, 09:50 AM #7197
The TREND IS YOUR BEST FRIEND
Never fight against the dominant trend you will lose. The yen at the moment is in a strong bear trend there is no need to speculate about the bottom or where it will stop the market will find its own base just work along with the the trend. and you will be rewarded 95% of traders fail becuse they use there emotion to make trading decisions its all in the charts not in your mind.
11-29-2009, 10:03 AM #7198
Originally Posted by SeraphTrader
agree with you
here is BOJ
The statement of income For the first half of the 125th fiscal Year. Mark sheet ..Part 2
11-29-2009, 10:03 AM #7199
USD/JPY Direction this week
I hope everyone had a wonderful Thanksgiving. Where do you see the USD/JPY bottoming out and do you see this happening anytime soon? The current trend (near-term) is obviously bearish but how long can this continue? The dollar might begin to show some strength and in the near-term and this may cause a rebound in this pair but will probably not happen until after the new year in my opinion. I am going to resist the urge to trade against the trend and stay bearish until a clear reversal occurs. Curious as to what everyone on these boards think...
11-29-2009, 01:53 PM #7200
lol bro you are a CERTIFIED BULL. last time GBPUSD was supposed to go up to 1.70 and even higher. lol lol.
Originally Posted by Tigger