Thread: Discuss USD/JPY, GBP/JPY, and other JPY Pairs

I already shorted this pair on Friday after it broke the support level in a spike low, however later I learned that it was the BOJ QE program announcement that gave it the strength to fly back to the top. So most of you still agree that this won't hurt the yen after all? I saw that it quickly retreated from the higher levels in NY. But still, 80 is a long way. What do you think are the fundamentals for a stronger yen going ahead? It is another funding currency for carry trade with super low interest rates and no sign of inflation even in the pipeline. I'm a bit baffled by this. Supporting the bearish double top scenario is the divergence in RSI, if it wasn't for that, I would be more inclined to see it as bullish breakout, targeting 92.5-93. GBP/JPY seems to be in a narrowing range/wedge formation so I guess in a couple of days the direction will become clearer.

Originally Posted by melbgirl

I already shorted this pair on Friday after it broke the support level in a spike low, however later I learned that it was the BOJ QE program announcement that gave it the strength to fly back to the top. So most of you still agree that this won't hurt the yen after all? I saw that it quickly retreated from the higher levels in NY. But still, 80 is a long way. What do you think are the fundamentals for a stronger yen going ahead? It is another funding currency for carry trade with super low interest rates and no sign of inflation even in the pipeline. I'm a bit baffled by this. Supporting the bearish double top scenario is the divergence in RSI, if it wasn't for that, I would be more inclined to see it as bullish breakout, targeting 92.5-93. GBP/JPY seems to be in a narrowing range/wedge formation so I guess in a couple of days the direction will become clearer.

Interesting, especially as year end approaches and funds are squaring their books after the Santa Claus rally! I guess new money could come into stocks in January, so that would lift the USDJPY as an outcome. Meantime, your favourite cross may follow cable down if the former pair remains at this level or declines for the given reasons. I think you need to see a cycle low on cable before buying the cross, so the bias is probably downwards for positional traders on GBPJPY this week into Christmas. But I don't do tech analysis on those pairs. Cheers, anyway.

Cool. Thanks Sean I appreciate it.

Originally Posted by melbgirl

I already shorted this pair on Friday after it broke the support level in a spike low, however later I learned that it was the BOJ QE program announcement that gave it the strength to fly back to the top. So most of you still agree that this won't hurt the yen after all? I saw that it quickly retreated from the higher levels in NY. But still, 80 is a long way. What do you think are the fundamentals for a stronger yen going ahead? It is another funding currency for carry trade with super low interest rates and no sign of inflation even in the pipeline. I'm a bit baffled by this. Supporting the bearish double top scenario is the divergence in RSI, if it wasn't for that, I would be more inclined to see it as bullish breakout, targeting 92.5-93. GBP/JPY seems to be in a narrowing range/wedge formation so I guess in a couple of days the direction will become clearer.

I'm not sure about the cable cross, expect no real huge crash due to cross buying GBP, 1.5800 max low. Am careful with GBP/JPY, reckon 150 plus. 8 hour cross holds well. Reckon 140.00 GBP/JPY won't be seen again.

USD/JPY? JPY/USD charts on monthly reversing hard. Still holding longs from 85.10 These won't come back. Anyone lucky enough to catch the lows especially on USD/CHF and USD/JPY is in for a 100% win trade. When the lows hit, I was up all night waiting for them, so am lucky......

EUR/JPY? Went long for an upward scalp Friday night. Looks like it can hit 131 from here short-term.

Originally Posted by Sean Hyman

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Hello, new here and looking forward tp posting. Any advice on this pair called the Beast?

Originally Posted by Pipmeister

Hello, new here and looking forward tp posting. Any advice on this pair called the Beast?

Hmm, looking for 150.00 plus this week, sure it will hit. 4 hour cross works fine. Any more than that is a miracle, but 151.00 can't be ruled out. Japs now doing Q/E and fighting deflation, so am watching this carefully. Reckon Cable dragged down by EUR, so EUR/GBP cross won't help sooo much. If Japanese do Q/E more than expected, it will all rise like crazy against JPY irrespective, as JPY will not be safe-haven currency any more.

Having said that, just bought another long GBP/JPY.

Originally Posted by cool_fx

Well folks, i must say this was a very good week for me compared to last week. this week again dragon was following my predictions. lol.

hopefully we all made some moolah here.

as an advise for newbies : plzz dnt be greedy. set a daily limit may be 100pips, 150, 200pips and as soon as it hits, just close the position and enjoy the money. then again reeneter when conditions are right.

Nice advice Cool. New guy's please watch out for the retracements. These can be fast and wipe your account out in 10 minutes flat if you are 'too heavy'. If you go lightly, most of your lots will 100% come back.

From here GBP/JPY can see daily cross turn. Shorting the 'Beast' only works if you are 100% confident, longs work well on this pair as well.

My addiction atm is AUD/JPY. Reckon one day GBP/JPY will exceed 160.00, next year second quarter. Still think price is cheap from here.

Originally Posted by Tigger

Hmm, looking for 150.00 plus this week, sure it will hit. 4 hour cross works fine. Any more than that is a miracle, but 151.00 can't be ruled out. Japs now doing Q/E and fighting deflation, so am watching this carefully. Reckon Cable dragged down by EUR, so EUR/GBP cross won't help sooo much. If Japanese do Q/E more than expected, it will all rise like crazy against JPY irrespective, as JPY will not be safe-haven currency any more.

Having said that, just bought another long GBP/JPY.

Hi Tigger

I mean no disrespect to you but you were Bullish when price went to 148 and then it went down to 142. Plus I think GBP has been pulled up from 142 by EUR not down. On Friday Price couldnt even breach the 147's so im sticking with the trend and selling GBP. Im already short from 146.25 and plan on adding to this on the open tonight. Anyway difference of opinon is what creates a market so I wish you and all luck.

ADD:
I believe you are a long term trader so our views will always conflict as Im looking for 1-3 day trades. like you I think that this will hit 160's next year and wont go below 139. Are you still holding your LONGS from the lower etcheons or did you close out, I was going to ask you last week as I was curious to see how you dealt with the sell off that occured. I would of probaly closed them, but hey thats me, always diddling with positions.

Originally Posted by skydiver

Hi Tigger

I mean no disrespect to you but you were Bullish when price went to 148 and then it went down to 142. Plus I think GBP has been pulled up from 142 by EUR not down. On Friday Price couldnt even breach the 147's so im sticking with the trend and selling GBP. Im already short from 146.25 and plan on adding to this on the open tonight. Anyway difference of opinon is what creates a market so I wish you and all luck.

Still long at 148.00, have reasonable size account that allows for 'blips'. Still bullish GBP/JPY. Max bullish USD/JPY. Soooo maximum from 85.10 to exceed 100. The next few days will tell. Am sure my 148.00 lot will return profit.

The correalations between GBP and EUR are changing BIG style. If anything, EUR will crash against GBP. EUR has Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain, not to mention Austria and bank defaults. downgrades etc. Why will EUR rise much against GBP? We did not want to join EUR for the default reasons of these PIGS countries wanting to benefit from a so-called 'strong' currency'. 'Techs say EUR to .8000 EUR/GBP next few months at least. Why should we be 'pulled up' by crappy Euro?

Originally Posted by Pipmeister

Hello, new here and looking forward tp posting. Any advice on this pair called the Beast?

Hi and welcome.
More posters the better as it gives a rounder view of things.
Advice is, as Cool and Tigger have said " go gentle and dont bet the Ranch" you can make good money on the Geppy with the smallest lots.
As SEAN says "just because you are driving a Ferrari dosent mean you have to floor it at 200mph" you will still reach your destination at 50mph.

Good luck.

Originally Posted by Tigger

Still long at 148.00, have reasonable size account that allows for 'blips'. Still bullish GBP/JPY. Max bullish USD/JPY. Soooo maximum from 85.10 to exceed 100. The next few days will tell. Am sure my 148.00 lot will return profit.

The correalations between GBP and EUR are changing BIG style. If anything, EUR will crash against GBP. EUR has Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain, not to mention Austria and bank defaults. downgrades etc. Why will EUR rise much against GBP? We did not want to join EUR for the default reasons of these PIGS countries wanting to benefit from a so-called 'strong' currency'. 'Techs say EUR to .8000 EUR/GBP next few months at least. Why should we be 'pulled up' by crappy Euro?

I agree with your sentiments and Im enjoying seeing the Euro being exposed for its vulnerabilities. Personaly I think the Eurozone is hiding dynamite at present and it can only be hidden for so long before it explodes.
I just think GBP/YEN goes down before it goes back up. Sure the PIG countries spilt the beans last week and every one is wondering whose next, which I think has helped the £ but I think the trend for £/y will resume back down before it goes back up. (that seems the nature of price action)
Your 148 is safe. i know you had longs from 141, 142, 143 144 and I was just wondering if you closed them out, just being nosey really and getting the measure of a fellow trader,I was most impressed with your positions at the time and when price dropped suddenly I thought ' hope Tigger is taking profits'.

Originally Posted by Tigger

Hmm, looking for 150.00 plus this week, sure it will hit. 4 hour cross works fine. Any more than that is a miracle, but 151.00 can't be ruled out. Japs now doing Q/E and fighting deflation, so am watching this carefully. Reckon Cable dragged down by EUR, so EUR/GBP cross won't help sooo much. If Japanese do Q/E more than expected, it will all rise like crazy against JPY irrespective, as JPY will not be safe-haven currency any more.

Having said that, just bought another long GBP/JPY.

ha ha bro are you serious 150 in the horizon. well i mean anything can happen but all my charts and calculations are predicting a 143.70 touchdown and even down to 142.

USD is now very very strong. Its good for japanese but gold traders and stock markets are getting nervous. there will be some restratcemnet in UJ atleast till 89s. GBPUSD might not be active till london open. So all this cud add up.

I still hold my shorts frm friday of 146.36 ,mMy stops are at 147.30, target 143.70.

goodluck.

Originally Posted by Tigger

Hmm, looking for 150.00 plus this week, sure it will hit. 4 hour cross works fine. Any more than that is a miracle, but 151.00 can't be ruled out. Japs now doing Q/E and fighting deflation, so am watching this carefully. Reckon Cable dragged down by EUR, so EUR/GBP cross won't help sooo much. If Japanese do Q/E more than expected, it will all rise like crazy against JPY irrespective, as JPY will not be safe-haven currency any more.

Having said that, just bought another long GBP/JPY.

There does seem to be an upward channel on the 1 hour chart. It did break below the lower support but quickly shot back up so you may be correct. We are at the lower support line now so we can wait and see.

Originally Posted by skydiver

Hi and welcome.
More posters the better as it gives a rounder view of things.
Advice is, as Cool and Tigger have said " go gentle and dont bet the Ranch" you can make good money on the Geppy with the smallest lots.
As SEAN says "just because you are driving a Ferrari dosent mean you have to floor it at 200mph" you will still reach your destination at 50mph.

Good luck.

Great advice, thanks.