Thread: Discuss USD/JPY, GBP/JPY, and other JPY Pairs

Originally Posted by 4xer

Long again @146.17

I will Hedge if I need to with my current broker. If you look back at my previous posts I am a hedger. Thanks for your input.

I am a Bear by nature however I am also a contrarian. Everyone is saying short now so I will go long until I see a definative break and confirmation. My indicators are saying oversold. Now I know this pair can and will extend. However this is a rising wedge. Also this 145-146 area was previous resistance a few times. Also I dont hold trades long. I make more $ by multiple trades of 20 pips to 100 pips. Just my trading style. I will add small positions to the trade as needed until I reach my full risk.

If you try to make decisions on the fundamentals and what should happen you will go broke. This market doenst make sense most of the time until afterwards when all the paid analists get paid to explain why it happened then it sounds good. (No offense Sean! But you know what I mean)

Good luck an hope you can keep your shorts I might join you but not quite yet. I was short from 148.60 and 148.90. I try not to get greedy.

Bro you are right in terms of technical stuff

but.....

Forex is a mix of fundies and technicals.

Iam not sure myself if it will bounce up. but seeing the news and other comments from the speech. i think we are going down. USD will go down and down and take USDJPY and GBPJPY with it.

No help from GBP can come.Unlike EURO, GBP is in a mess of its own due to poor data.

So both pairs look to be going down now and as a result GJ will go down.

again iam not sure, this is the scenario which im playing with.

Originally Posted by Sean Hyman

Glad you liked the GBP/JPY technical break explanation.

All hedges do is delay things a bit. One sided risk still has to be taken at some point to get anywhere.

I have read your other reports through Currency Capitalist subscription and truly like your strategic thinking

I ccouldnt agree more on hedging ... I thought about it before (since it is not allowed in US through single broker) through another broker but threw that idea away on the fact that reward goes hand-in-hand with risk...

Originally Posted by Sean Hyman

GBP/JPY breaks south and heads towards its price target.

Sean

Thanks for your post. I respect you because you post ahead and I dont lump you in with the other analyst. Sorry if that wasnt more clear in my previous post. You also have a pretty good track record in this forum.

I think this break is a false break driven by Obama speach. Euro is reversing IMO and Geppy should follow if Risk kiskc back in. I am not sold on this being a major fall. I am not always right. However I do post as things are occuring and not afterwards. Both of my longs are possitve as of right now Hopefully I can get a bit more out of them.

Goodluck to all.

Originally Posted by 4xer

Long again @146.17

I will Hedge if I need to with my current broker. If you look back at my previous posts I am a hedger. Thanks for your input.

I am a Bear by nature however I am also a contrarian. Everyone is saying short now so I will go long until I see a definative break and confirmation. My indicators are saying oversold. Now I know this pair can and will extend. However this is a rising wedge. Also this 145-146 area was previous resistance a few times. Also I dont hold trades long. I make more $ by multiple trades of 20 pips to 100 pips. Just my trading style. I will add small positions to the trade as needed until I reach my full risk.

If you try to make decisions on the fundamentals and what should happen you will go broke. This market doenst make sense most of the time until afterwards when all the paid analists get paid to explain why it happened then it sounds good. (No offense Sean! But you know what I mean)

Good luck an hope you can keep your shorts I might join you but not quite yet. I was short from 148.60 and 148.90. I try not to get greedy.

I duly respect your opinion ... I post what I thought may be of some help...In the hope that I will be bailed out one day by my peers here

Good luck to you as well

Dharmin

Originally Posted by cool_fx

Bro you are right in terms of technical stuff

but.....

Forex is a mix of fundies and technicals.

Iam not sure myself if it will bounce up. but seeing the news and other comments from the speech. i think we are going down. USD will go down and down and take USDJPY and GBPJPY with it.

No help from GBP can come.Unlike EURO, GBP is in a mess of its own due to poor data.

So both pairs look to be going down now and as a result GJ will go down.

again iam not sure, this is the scenario which im playing with.

I couldnt agree more on the mix! Cool you know I am a Bear on this pair. This spike lower was another mouth spouting (Obama). Those events are usually temporary.

I am also not sure where this pair is going to go from here. I do know I can grab 30 to 50 pips on a bounce! I am profitable on those longs as of now and have moved my stops to +10 BE. I just dont think it is in its major fall YET. It could be, however I will take my short profits and long profits and see from here.

If anything this conversation actually got people involved in the forum. It was getting really boring in here

Originally Posted by dharminpdesai

I duly respect your opinion ... I post what I thought may be of some help...In the hope that I will be bailed out one day by my peers here

Good luck to you as well

Dharmin

Much appreciated. Good Karma to ALL

Originally Posted by 4xer

I couldnt agree more on the mix! Cool you know I am a Bear on this pair. This spike lower was another mouth spouting (Obama). Those events are usually temporary.

I am also not sure where this pair is going to go from here. I do know I can grab 30 to 50 pips on a bounce! I am profitable on those longs as of now and have moved my stops to +10 BE. I just dont think it is in its major fall YET. It could be, however I will take my short profits and long profits and see from here.

If anything this conversation actually got people involved in the forum. It was getting really boring in here

lol i know. i was like 4xer going bullish at this pair. mutiny in the bear camp. lol. i was like did you joined the brads bullish camp. lol.

Iam just kidding. At the end of day all that matters is we made moolah or not. bears or bulls ;-)

In a situation like we had this morning where the pair runs significantly, one way or the other, what do you look for to indicate a good position to take profits from the inevitable rebound….?

Originally Posted by Russ

In a situation like we had this morning where the pair runs significantly, one way or the other, what do you look for to indicate a good position to take profits from the inevitable rebound….?

Continue on the defensive...by moving your stop more and more as the trade progresses and thus locking in more profits.

In other words, what we don't know is when the move will end. What we do know is what the market has done...which is moved a lot in the near term. Therefore, that provides us the opportunity to continue to move our stop in the direction of the trade and ensure more and more profits are retained rather than given back.

So instead of putting a limit on a parabolic move...manually trail your stop behind it and allow the momentum to continue to be your friend.

Those are "my two cents". See what you think.

I agree with Sean in that moving your stop with the move allows one to let the market tell when it is time to exit rather than just guessing. But I have known a few successful traders who use the Average Directional Index (ADX) to help exit a parabolic move like this. You can see on the 5-minute USD/JPY chart below that the ADX changed directions shortly after the market did. While this will not allow you to get out at the bottom of a parabolic move, it does offer a clearer view of changing momentum. This indicator would have resulted in a trader being in on most of the move instead of getting out earlier in the move. This is just a way to filter out the noise.

Wow! Amazing move today.

Using the same graph i posted earlier. What would have been some signs that the pair was going to fall so far...? I know the news jumped it off, but how could we have known that it would keep going?

I think using the resistance and support lines as guides is one way. If it reaches one resistance and pushes through then that could indicate it will fall to the next resistance.

Just my thoughts

Originally Posted by Thomas Long

I agree with Sean in that moving your stop with the move allows one to let the market tell when it is time to exit rather than just guessing. But I have known a few successful traders who use the Average Directional Index (ADX) to help exit a parabolic move like this. You can see on the 5-minute USD/JPY chart below that the ADX changed directions shortly after the market did. While this will not allow you to get out at the bottom of a parabolic move, it does offer a clearer view of changing momentum. This indicator would have resulted in a trader being in on most of the move instead of getting out earlier in the move. This is just a way to filter out the noise.

Thanks Sean and Tom. I will be investigating the ADX!! You guys are awesome!

Originally Posted by Russ

Using the same graph i posted earlier. What would have been some signs that the pair was going to fall so far...? I know the news jumped it off, but how could we have known that it would keep going?

I think using the resistance and support lines as guides is one way. If it reaches one resistance and pushes through then that could indicate it will fall to the next resistance.

Just my thoughts

There is no way to know 100%, the duration or speed of the move ahead of time for sure in this instance.

So what pros do is "manage what they do know". They "respond" to what the market is doing by moving stops and protecting more profits...rather than "predicting" what is going to happen.

Oh, they may have a great guess as to the probability of a direction...but ultimately pros "follow" and respond to what the market IS doing rather than predictions.

Originally Posted by Russ

Thanks Sean and Tom. I will be investigating the ADX!! You guys are awesome!

Russ, glad we could be of help to you.