Thread: Discuss USD/JPY, GBP/JPY, and other JPY Pairs

Guys...I'll be out of the office Monday - Wednesday. Going to do a TV shoot in West Palm Beach.

Others will be chiming in throughout those days. I'll be back on the forum boards on Thursday.

Will miss you guys...my trading buddies!

The down trend in USD/JPY looks intact...

yeah but the fact that the downtrend line is still intact doesn't mean it will stay so for long.

I wouldn't advise anybody to sell usd/jpy because of the lack of momentum that has been lasting for too long.

Originally Posted by AjsooOO

yeah but the fact that the downtrend line is still intact doesn't mean it will stay so for long.

I wouldn't advise anybody to sell usd/jpy because of the lack of momentum that has been lasting for too long.

I am not recommending a sell position, I am only showing my thoughts on the pair... I would also advise extreme caution in trading USD/JPY ... She's pretty choppy... Long term Wave patterns suggest an ultimate push below 79.80 at some point is in the cards to complete a long term elliott wave pattern... The question is how long can price hold itself up after completing a 12 year triangle on the monthly chart?? This is a long term bearish market, but I honestly can't imagine this pair will go silently into the night.. I wouldn't be surprised to see a bottom pop up somewhere.... Maybe some Japanese Bank Intervention if price keeps dipping towards the lows... But for now I would deffinately continue to favor the short side for trading, using good risk management of course... -- Personally I would opt to wait for clear trade opportunities in such a choppy market...

I THINK WE ARE IN A 3 WAVE DOWN TO 138.75 IN 30 MIN FRAME
Pivot: 142

Our preference: Short positions below 142 with targets @ 140.2 & 139.6 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 142 look for further upside with 143 & 143.85 as targets.

Comment: intraday technical indicators are mixed and call for caution.

Humm but what do you think about that ascending triangle in the current downtrend? Could be a reversal?

Originally Posted by Tankinou

Humm but what do you think about that ascending triangle in the current downtrend? Could be a reversal?

Being on the sidelines at present, i find myself agreeing with you and Mferr. On the 30min TF I think 139.60 is achievable but as you point out on the Asending Triangle (higher Lows - BUT - no higher Highs on the close, DAILY) this could still break out to 143 and then with the momentum that this pair creates maybe higher.
My Bias is to the down side but I would feel a lot happier to trade when the indicators become stronger and offer a clearer picture.
I think watching the gilt and equity markets could help us judge the amount of fear and risk aversion this week.

Lots of news this week including UK Jobless numbers - that will get things moving. If those numbers come in better than expected ( I think they possibly could) watch for a bounce up.
Good luck all.


ADD: No longer sidelined. SHORT 141.19. STOP 142.10. TARGET 139.90. (small lot size)

Hi guys, I've found this piece of news this morning, I wonder if this really happens what would be the effect, would it be bearish for the yen crosses?

"[CHINESE WHISPERS] PBOC signalled it was acting more quickly to rein in its booming economy after it unexpectedly raised the reserve requirement ratio for banks by 50bps from Feb 25th, the second increase this yr. Another rise was expected but not so soon, with high ylders and commodities immediately hit by the announcement which came after the Shanghai stock mkt closed; seemingly to minimize the impact on Chinese shares given local markets will be closed all this week for CNY. However key focus continues to be on a Yuan revaluation; with Goldman Sach's chief economist John O Neil, keeping mkts on edge in his subsequent comment that something is brewing in China on the ccy front, which could happen anytime soon. Commenting in Bloomberg, O'Neil said that China may allow the Yuan to rise as much as 5% in a one off reval, and to then trade within a bigger band or agst a larger basket of currencies in a bid to stem rising inflation."

Well despite the ascending triangle, I believe there ll be a bearish breakout but the pair could hit 142 once again before doing so. Even tought I've yet to see a lower low.

Strategy Long --
Entry 89.80
Stop.89.70
1st target--90.35
2nd target--90.75
Pivot: 89.75.
Trend: ST Ltd Upside; MT Range
Key levels:
91.25** Intraday resistance
90.75** Intraday resistance
90.35** Intraday resistance
90.16 Last
89.75** Intraday pivot point
89.5** Intraday support
89.15*** Intraday support

Alternative scenario:
The downside penetration of 89.75 will call for 89.5 & 89.15.

Regards
gy

I know that it's just sitting on the top of the ichimoku cloud, but it's early to long, at least wait for a trend line break, which will probably be @90.120 level. If it breaks it, then the way is open up to 91.80. I prefer staying short for now.

Originally Posted by Tankinou

Well despite the ascending triangle, I believe there ll be a bearish breakout but the pair could hit 142 once again before doing so. Even tought I've yet to see a lower low.

Hi , any reasonal proving for what you claimed Tankinou ? Many thanks ..

Looking at my Indicators I am seeing some doward pressure building

Out of my SHORT for 30pip profit.

Hi there I'm a new speculator to Geppy . I don't know how to post/attach my figures within my comments .. any help?
Thanks alot ,, cheers ,,

By the way , i think that geppy is totally Bearish on the long run