Thread: Discuss USD/JPY, GBP/JPY, and other JPY Pairs

Originally Posted by Kelevra

Hey all....

I made such a newbie move. I was looking at my charts and decided to go short at 139.09. Then like an idiot i was watching everything and got out for like... 5 pips. Then i got back on for another 20 pips and called it quits. Then i take a shower (10 mins) and see that had i stayed in i would have had at least that 100 pips.

So yeah.... hoping to get something off the bounce

naaah dnt worry. you will get another shot at glory during london open. this move was very sudden. there will be a retracement when london opens. dnt worry.

Originally Posted by MoneyInc.

remeber this one,,it was just two days to early

I well remember. But I also remember that you were not terribly confident about it, because you wanted to enter limit above where the market had been since the January swing high.

And I remember yesterday evening (my time) you were bullish @ around 90.22.

That's okay, though. I'd rather be wrong trades I touted and didn't take, than trades I took, any day.

Seems like risk aversion is trumping longs right now. We just made a lower daily low on this bar, and today's high fell short of yesterday's, too. (I will grant that essentially they are equal range, however.)

The pattern near term is increasingly bearish, but the lines in the sand are pretty clear: To resume climbing, first order of business is to clear 90.35 and hold it, and soon. To prevent falling, this 1 StDv around 89.52, which is almost exactly where the uptrend line comes in, needs to hold. Close below it without an immediate rally will encourage longs to abandon ship, I think.

I also think it could go either way from here, without much warning.

Edit: And don't forget that last night @ 90.22, I said it felt like 50 pips either way, flip a coin.
We got one side of those 50. I had an order in, but I didn't get filled by about 18 pips.

Originally Posted by Kelevra

Hey all....

I made such a newbie move. I was looking at my charts and decided to go short at 139.09. Then like an idiot i was watching everything and got out for like... 5 pips. Then i got back on for another 20 pips and called it quits. Then i take a shower (10 mins) and see that had i stayed in i would have had at least that 100 pips.

So yeah.... hoping to get something off the bounce

Bro...

dnt worry to much... as long as is a profit, well done... ..

again, we still have a lot pips today if we are in a right direction.. im still favour that correction may be underway before it going down again...

take care..

here are my today number as a guide.. today lower is nearly arrive at my s3.. it still early in trading day,, so.. alot of pips waiting for us...

P - 138984
r1 - 139441, r2-139723, r3-140180
s1- 138527, s2-138245, s3-137788

happy trading..

Originally Posted by porkchop

where will it stop

Nobody knows, PC. Nobody. 89.52 would be a logical place, but there's nothing magical about any level. It will stop where the balance of bulls outweighs the balance of bears. That's all one can really say. It might stop right here at about 89.80. It might have another 100 pips more on the downside. If I knew, I would be buying 200-meter yachts.

Edit: If it helps you, I just put a piece back on long @ 89.66. I'm early, I'm sure. But it was a very small piece. I can afford anything that comes. I'm looking to flip it near 90 if I can, but I will consider keeping it if it goes through 90 like a hot knife through butter.

Second Edit: And another piece, right now, @ 89.49. Now we wait and see if this logical level plays out. If it doesn't, I'm not likely buying until below 89. Note: I am *thoroughly* capitalized, and there is no level anywhere near me that can force me out or make my stomach clench. You have to consider those things however, if you are less capitalized.

hai guys, have a nice day.GJ was hit my target and i know it will touch 137 again.

So far, that 1StdDv @ about 89.52 looks good. But it's way too early to get cocky.

Thiry-five years of experience says so. ^_^

Japan equities puking, now down 100 in spite of the US rise. Again, if you want to be long the dollar-yen, you should be short a Nikkei put option. Nikkei wants to go up. But a stronger yen will throttle it.

Edit: This is not rocket science. If the yen soars above the dollar, the Nikkei is going to get taken out back behind the woodshed and spanked like a red-headed step child. A put option on the Nikkei is cheap insurance for a long dollar play. Maybe necessary insurance.

Hi guys,

I was away the whole day, can't believe I missed a so beautiful move, hope It will go to 137 that way I can have a nice Long, jusgt fear a breakout towards 135.66.

Originally Posted by Million$Man

Afternoon all.
Just closed a short on this pair as it approached the TL from the lows, agreed a tough call on this pair at the moment.
Long is tempting but it would against the overall trend.
Sit and wait is probably the best trade at the moment.
Remember its worse being in a trade wishing you were out of it then being out of a trade wishing you were in it

Good luck all
M$M

Hey There, thanks for the support line. I really wasn’t looking at that as much as the resistance line.

I’m still SHORT from 91.275, 91.353 and I put other positions in today.

I posted a chart where I think the price has broken below the support line. Also I put my line at the open and the close of candles not at the tops or bottoms of wicks….is that wrong?

I was stopped out of the GBP/USD last night for some big losses. There was a serious retrace back close to Matt Russell’s resistance line. I wanna get back in but I don’t know if I can manage my risk that well at this point.

Flipped the piece bot @ 89.49 @ 89.61. Trust here is fragile.

But I'm winning: chips (pips) off the table.

Originally Posted by Russ

Hey There, thanks for the support line. I really wasn’t looking at that as much as the resistance line.

I’m still SHORT from 91.275, 91.353 and I put other positions in today.

I posted a chart where I think the price has broken below the support line. Also I put my line at the open and the close of candles not at the tops or bottoms of wicks….is that wrong?

I was stopped out of the GBP/USD last night for some big losses. There was a serious retrace back close to Matt Russell’s resistance line. I wanna get back in but I don’t know if I can manage my risk that well at this point.

Draw your lines where you like, but my line, from the 11/27 low to the 2/4 low, doesn't look violated like your does. Doesn't mean it won't look that way later of course, but ...

Key question: Signal or noise here. I think risk-aversion signal, but not all that strong. We are NOT, repeat NOT in the winter of last year, but the winter of this year. The world will grow this year, not contract. I surmise it is NOT 1932.

Originally Posted by MoneyManager

Draw your lines where you like, but my line, from the 11/27 low to the 2/4 low, doesn't look violated like your does. Doesn't mean it won't look that way later of course, but ...

Key question: Signal or noise here. I think risk-aversion signal, but not all that strong. We are NOT, repeat NOT in the winter of last year, but the winter of this year. The world will grow this year, not contract. I surmise it is NOT 1932.

You are way over my head Money manager. I’m still learning here. What does flip the bot mean? I’m guessing its slang from another country I’m an American I’ve never heard that in FL. I know what chips are!

There’s news tomorrow on the USD Core Durable Goods Orders and unemployment claims. DOES ANYONE KNOW how that will affect us? I wish it was being covered LIVE by FXCM.

1932 was that a reference to the decline in the markets at that time? Maybe you’re right and things aren’t that bad and will get better soon. I sure hope so.

Originally Posted by Russ

You are way over my head Money manager. I’m still learning here. What does flip the bot mean? I’m guessing its slang from another country I’m an American I’ve never heard that in FL. I know what chips are!

There’s news tomorrow on the USD Core Durable Goods Orders and unemployment claims. DOES ANYONE KNOW how that will affect us? I wish it was being covered LIVE by FXCM.

1932 was that a reference to the decline in the markets at that time? Maybe you’re right and things aren’t that bad and will get better soon. I sure hope so.

Did I say "flip the bot"? If so, I have to lay off the sauce.

"Flip" is a quick trade, like scalping. A lot of Florida real estate speculators thought they would "flip" their properties very quickly. It worked for a while. Sorry.

'Bot' is generally 'bought' in this lingo.

I'm an American, too. But I've been a permanent resident of Japan since I discovered where all the really pretty and sweet girls are.

It's very treacherous here. Play good defense and you'll be fine. The old American football saying is very good when it comes to markets: "Play really tough defense, and the offense will take care of itself."

Good luck to ya.

Edit: My trades today look very, very reasonable. That doesn't mean they will look that way tomorrow.

As of the moment: Japan standard time 2:11 pm on Thursday, a reasonable entry would be right here around 89.65, which is approximately the near uptrend line.

In Asia, risk-aversion appears to the the order of the day. That can change on a dime.

Don't go crazy. Consider your risk and stops carefully, but give yourself enough risk that you will REALLY know you are wrong if you are wrong. Adjust position size accordingly.

Edit: I'm talking about a long USDJPY entry, naturally. It could lose. Use your head. But it's a logical place to put one on.

15 minutes before the Tokyo close...

Asia looks weaker than you would expect based on the US action. Risk aversion is present. Long USDJPY are reasonable here, but don't be silly enough to bet the farm, or even the barn. This could be a short-term thing (I hear initial claims might be as low as 424 tonight), or it could be an intermediate thing. Be smart.

Edit: There is no sure thing, except your ability (or inability) to manage risk.