Thread: Discuss USD/JPY, GBP/JPY, and other JPY Pairs

Please, can u kindly explain why u want to go short USDJPY as from monday? I learnt japanese government want to intervene to bring down the value of yen possibly on tuesday

Originally Posted by topsy

Please, can u kindly explain why u want to go short USDJPY as from monday? I learnt japanese government want to intervene to bring down the value of yen possibly on tuesday

This is why I chose to short. I have been following Nial's methods of inside bars and pin bars for quite some time:

Forex Commentary, USDJPY Fakey Setup, 3-12-10

But at the end, you make your own decision

GBP SEES TO GO HIGH

GBP/JPY: Couter-trend Rally Continues



4H and Daily: The GBP/JPY is in a second leg up in its recent correction rally.
Immediately we can see a swing projection to the 139/139.50 area. This is coincident with the SMA200 in the 4H chart, and tests resistance levels both flat and declining.
It would also be a completed bearish Gartley at the 61.8% retracement level, seen in the daily chart.
Weekly: The weekly chart shows how bearish the GBP/JPY since 2008. A swing projection continues to 130.50 or 78.6% retracement. If the current rally is indeed a correction. Get ready for an intermediate bearish outlook in the coming weeks toward 130.50.

Hi there , I'm a new in Forex world and I simply have some questions about what I'm reading and following by our great instructors such as John Rivera, John Klicklighter, the kindley-hearted Sir. Sean Hayman, and other analysts.

So, Johm Rivera wrote in his recent article "USD/JPY Looks To FOMC Meeting To Determine Next Trend" the following:
Last week we pointed out a divergence between the pair and equity markets as an opportunity. We finally saw the expected yen weakness as the pair caught up with rising equity markets soaring over 200 pips.

My Fisrt Question :
what is the resaon behind this +ve correlation between USDJPY and Equities? And how could equities be estimated as high or low in volume? Are there certain scales or parameters? And Finally, is the previous relationship always +vely correlated?

Second question :
How can I predict the activity or Bias of USD currency trend or strengh WITH RESPECT TO the Dow, Nasdac and S&P500 figures ?
For instance, John Kicklighter warned from 3 remarks in his recent article that :
Looking at traditional volatility measures, the S&P 500’s VIX Index is hovering just off of its lowest level since May 2008 while the currency equivalent currently stands at an 18-month low. Another approach to appraising activity is through calculating the average daily range of different markets. This measure of price action shows the Dollar Index just nearing an August 2008 low, crude easing to levels of lethargy last seen in September of 2007 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average just off of an average daily range not witnessed since the beginning of 2007.
So can anybody explain accurately these viewpoints please?

Thank you very much and sorry for inconvenience
Waiting for your clarification with all cheers

Hi, Qabazard

Let me jump in here. What Riveria mentioned is about the conventional correlations between yen and equity market, about risk appetite/attitude. Conventionally speaking, equity markets represent risk, so a rising stock market may signal increasing risk appetite or decreased risk aversion. And yen is the currency that investors/traders will most likely flock to when they have low risk tolerance. So, if such relationships hold, then a risking equity market means investors would be less interested in yen, so yen would weaken, and so bring up the value of $/Y. But correlations and their strength vary, and they do not remain the same all the time.


The second quote you have here is about volatility, that's what VIX is about. It refers to how volatile some financial products are. Low VIX reading means low volatility, which suggests that the range of movement of that product is relatively small, which can also be seen easily on charts, or use ATR (average true range). When a financial product is consolidating in a tight range, it might mean that a breakout will happen at some point in the future for it to find a direction. But there is no indication of timing.

Just my 2 cents/pence/pips.

Originally Posted by skydiver

i

Hi
Im in agreement with you that this will get to 139 but a change in trend i can not agree. So 139 then a resumption of the down trend.
Fundementals havent changed for GBP....
1. More risk to come from Euro
2. UK incomes are decreasing
3. Immenient election - beginning to look like a power share could happen (bad for gbp)
4. Unemployment may of slowed but not improved
5. Banks still not supplying money
6. BOE policy to keep the pound low.
7. Extending QE hasnt been written off.
8. Equitiies are artificaly high and im expecting a retracement back to 5000.

IN ADDITION : Ilya Spivak wrote :

- House Prices, Retail Sales Disappoint in February
- UK Trade Balance Deficit Unexpectedly Widens
- Industrial Output, Manufacturing Underperform

BUT what makes me wondering is that he insisted that GBP forecast is BULLISH for next week !!??

Can anybody solve this Puzzle plesae ?!

Hi new poster.
(If) the japanese government wants to intervene to bring down the value of yen.

Well my question Sean is i really wanted to go long here but really thought i would see the 88s again. So with the change in the trend am i going to miss my long position? I want to be more long term (long).

Now i feel im stuck in the middle of a 93/87 wave?

The real question i guess is should i just sit on the side buy on any dips?

or do you think we might see the 88 down tend continue?

Thanks Kevin

People... Hello,

so....the next 2 days will be quite slow because of Wednesday data, so Monday a pullback to 136.5-137 anywhere here, from what i see now, and then 100 pips higher on Monday to 137.5-138 and Tuesday another 50-100 pips... and Wednesday a reversal...

So, SOLD @ 138.1 , Target 100 pips lower for now.

Good Luck ... and Happy Trading...

ONE THING, do not expect huge movements for the first part of the week

my platform allows me to buy on Sunday evening UK time...

FORGOT THE GRAPH

THIS IS WHAT I SEE

Originally Posted by topsy

Please, can u kindly explain why u want to go short USDJPY as from monday? I learnt japanese government want to intervene to bring down the value of yen possibly on tuesday

The fakey setup displayed below shows a pin bar that failed to close above the inside bar. That occurred at a resistance level

Originally Posted by Franosh

Hi, Qabazard

Let me jump in here. What Riveria mentioned is about the conventional correlations between yen and equity market, about risk appetite/attitude. Conventionally speaking, equity markets represent risk, so a rising stock market may signal increasing risk appetite or decreased risk aversion. And yen is the currency that investors/traders will most likely flock to when they have low risk tolerance. So, if such relationships hold, then a risking equity market means investors would be less interested in yen, so yen would weaken, and so bring up the value of $/Y. But correlations and their strength vary, and they do not remain the same all the time.


The second quote you have here is about volatility, that's what VIX is about. It refers to how volatile some financial products are. Low VIX reading means low volatility, which suggests that the range of movement of that product is relatively small, which can also be seen easily on charts, or use ATR (average true range). When a financial product is consolidating in a tight range, it might mean that a breakout will happen at some point in the future for it to find a direction. But there is no indication of timing.

Just my 2 cents/pence/pips.

Hi Franosh , first of all Thank u so much for the neat answer second I just drew the following equation from what You said ,, So plesae check it whether it's correct or I'm mistaken ? Here we go :

My Summary of Franosh's explanation:

High Dow + Nasdaq + S&P500 stock prices ----> leads to high risk appetite for equity market ---> which in turn leads to more interested traders to buy US dollas currency ---> which leads normally to selling YEN ----> which enevtually leads to BULLISHNESS of USDJPY pair

So is it correct ?

Second point I have 1 extra question dear Franosh plesae : CAN WE CONCLUDE THE FOLLOWING FORMULA :
If DOW , Nasdaq , and S&P closed HIGH , then mostly the usdjpy will soar up in the following Asian session directly (due to Risk appetite toward USD and Risk aversion toward Yen) ?
Does it make sense ?

Again Thank you very very very much dear bro .. Peace

Hello, I am new to trading, and was trying to figure out how to enter a If then order that I have read about. Just curious, as to what you think will change the trend in GBP/JPY.

Do you think the BOJ hinting at intervention will push the pair higher the first part of this week?

Originally Posted by dutucker

Hello, I am new to trading, and was trying to figure out how to enter a If then order that I have read about. Just curious, as to what you think will change the trend in GBP/JPY.

Do you think the BOJ hinting at intervention will push the pair higher the first part of this week?

A few posts back, read what skydiver has to say... he lives in the UK.

closed my short and went long at 137.40 S/L 135.80 to target 139.10