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03-18-2008, 01:40 PM #1126
usd/jpy filling some gaps as it continues to rally. Looks like some resistance at the 99.08 area. If it somehow makes it through this area, is this a good place to be looking for a short position? I've read some comments on here, all good info. just wondering where some of you with a current short position would think a good entry point would be. Thanks.
03-18-2008, 02:02 PM #1127
First trade for spreadbetting and on the FX. I am short from 97.90, but the market seems to be heading back to 99-100 range. Surely market sentiment is short. Any thoughts, based in the Uk ?
03-18-2008, 02:22 PM #1128
where is usd/jpy heading
now that the rate is at 2.25% will usd/jpy still be on the drop any ideas pls
03-18-2008, 02:40 PM #1129
The Fed only cut 75 so I was wrong in thinking it would probably be 100. But that changes nothing. What does change things is if my stops are taken out. So far, none of my bearish dollar positions have been stopped out. The charts show the dollar rallied in a correction, so that means new lows should be coming soon, regardless of any news, fundamentals, Fed announcements, or whatever.
So I'm like Maximus in the beginning of the movie Gladiator when he leads the cavalry into the barbarian enemy and yelling, "Hold the line!! Hold the line!"
I'm holding the line on my short dollar positions as the dollar should head down to new lows.
03-18-2008, 02:42 PM #1130
I'm with you in the same line
Originally Posted by American Trader
Thanks for the advices.
03-18-2008, 03:00 PM #1131
geesh, testing that 99.08 area I mentioned....
03-18-2008, 03:11 PM #1132
03-18-2008, 03:38 PM #1133
03-18-2008, 03:39 PM #1134
Stop on USD/JPY is at 100.13, but 99.86 shouldn't be broken. It's really close for my comfort. EUR/USD made a new low and that may be problematic. Ironically, I have a longer term short position I've been building up on for some time, but I definitely would have been stopped out of that trade if I was long. All other stops are in tact but this dollar rally has gone much further and held its ground much longer than I expected.
Originally Posted by JOKER
Need to wait and let the market stop me out, or try to see a structure that strongly suggests a dollar bottom is in.
03-18-2008, 04:23 PM #1135
I havent seen the 'all clear' sign yet. Fed will lower again in April, and they are still citing weakness. This dollar rally is just a correction. Good levels to sell for the brave, (and for those with deep pockets maybe....?)
You never know how far its gonna go ofcourse, but would not be surprised to see 100.60 or so.
And then we go down again.
03-18-2008, 05:57 PM #1136
Has any one ever seen a rally on worse news than expected? i dont mean to be a nag it just doesnt make sene to me one bit. It seems like some major banks got together and said we need to prop up the USD on what ever the news is and get out of what USD cash we have in the cash market while we still can get a buck for it. Ready set go and all pairs against the USD tanked on worse than expected news? It should have been the exact opposite given the .75 and more negitive news. Anyone else suspitious at all?
03-18-2008, 06:00 PM #1137
On the yen dont forget theyve been crying about how low the USD is so dont be surprised if the banks try to keep it up hear for a while while the cash out for the EUR.
03-18-2008, 06:18 PM #1138
Originally Posted by Guilder
Almost there. In 100.4s now.
what kind of down movement should be expected?
How aggressively will it move down?
03-18-2008, 06:23 PM #1139
Correct me if I'm wrong but I think we got a shooting star in 5 min chart and RSI suggests a reversal.
03-18-2008, 06:26 PM #1140
Very unexpected results today, obviously, as my expectation was for new dollar lows across the majors. The EUR/USD was the first to break key support at 1.5685, I was stopped out of USD/JPY at 100.13, and USD/CHF is just pips from stopping out at 1.0065. But the AUD and CAD never came close to stopping out, held steady all day, and are currently pushing the dollar down, and the AUD just made a new high-completing a clear five wave rally. The GBP/USD also just stayed above support at 2.0035 and is now rallying. On top of that, the stock market rallied insanely.
I think I'd rather have gotten a root canal and proctology exam done at the same time than have gone through today's trading.
The EUR/USD's new low was the first sign of trouble. However on the hourly chart you can see a verly clear 3 wave drop. Need to continue trying to absord the whole big picture here. Right now I'm a bit in awe, frustrated, and confused. This dollar rally still loook corrective for the most part, however in the USD/JPY and EUR/USD it's gone too far, and the GBP and CHF hasn't broken any rules but it sure does decrease the odds of a correction. I still need to see a clear impulsive dollar rally and I don't really see that yet. Anyone else? Any thoughts?