Thread: Discuss USD/JPY, GBP/JPY, and other JPY Pairs

Originally Posted by Jayson Wonder

I am using the FXCM trading platform. I have been stugglign with this pair for the last 2 weeks. The channel we are in is sort of wearing me down. I will admit I am still on the side of the bears and and trading that way.

On the daily and 4 hour chart I see us still in nothing but a down trend. On the hourly I see potential why some might be bias to the upside. Short there there is not much follow through in either direction.

I am currently looking ot go short again around 90.25 for a target of 90.00 or even 89.75. If we break 91.00 again I will look to go long targeting 91.50 - 92.85 range before we bounce back down and continue with the longer term trend.

Just my thoughts as I learn and try to make some profitable trades.

Jason, you can't trade like that -- unless you want to slowly go broke. You are willing to take a 90.25 short looking for 25 pips? That means you can only risk maybe 10 or 15 pips -- because if you are not consistently risking less than you are willing to win, you are a blown account waiting to be shown the door.

Personally, I find 10 or 15 pips within the "noise threshold" (mostly noise and almost no signal) on just about any time frame you can name. IOW, there is just about no system and no T/A that can defend you against a 10 or 15 pip move. They happen all the time, and more often than not they are absolutely meaningless in the larger sense. But if you don't take a loss at that point when you are only looking for 25 pips to bank, you are a dead man walking. This is, essentially, flipping a coin.

Now, if you don't usually trade like that, my apology. But I have seniority (and profitability) experience over just about *anyone* on these boards (why am I here then -- I'm retired, managing a rather substantial amount of family money, and I don't mind sharing what I've learned, and what you or any other trader does or believes is not going to affect me one bit). But, you cannot trade like that consistently and stay in this game. Anyone who says you can is selling snake oil.

This market is *ALWAYS* going to be here. Every day. Why not step back and wait for the fat pitch? That's exactly what major league batters do. They wait for a "mistake", and by God mistakes come. Same here. You *cannot* time every small move, and trying to do so just about guarantees you will go broke. Take the highest value trades, which by definition are trades that you can set a *meaningful* loss on. A dozen pips doesn't signify anything, 95 percent or more of the time. But if you are willing to take a profit at 25 pips, you cannot, you simply cannot, risk more than a dozen or so.

Originally Posted by MoneyManager

Jason, you can't trade like that -- unless you want to slowly go broke. You are willing to take a 90.25 short looking for 25 pips? That means you can only risk maybe 10 or 15 pips -- because if you are not consistently risking less than you are willing to win, you are a blown account waiting to be shown the door.

Personally, I find 10 or 15 pips within the "noise threshold" (mostly noise and almost no signal) on just about any time frame you can name. IOW, there is just about no system and no T/A that can defend you against a 10 or 15 pip move. They happen all the time, and more often than not they are absolutely meaningless in the larger sense. But if you don't take a loss at that point when you are only looking for 25 pips to bank, you are a dead man walking. This is, essentially, flipping a coin.

Now, if you don't usually trade like that, my apology. But I have seniority (and profitability) experience over just about *anyone* on these boards (why am I here then -- I'm retired, managing a rather substantial amount of family money, and I don't mind sharing what I've learned, and what you or any other trader does or believes is not going to affect me one bit). But, you cannot trade like that consistently and stay in this game. Anyone who says you can is selling snake oil.

This market is *ALWAYS* going to be here. Every day. Why not step back and wait for the fat pitch? That's exactly what major league batters do. They wait for a "mistake", and by God mistakes come. Same here. You *cannot* time every small move, and trying to do so just about guarantees you will go broke. Take the highest value trades, which by definition are trades that you can set a *meaningful* loss on. A dozen pips doesn't signify anything, 95 percent or more of the time. But if you are willing to take a profit at 25 pips, you cannot, you simply cannot, risk more than a dozen or so.

I just started trading last week and I need to take this advice as well. I've been all over the place this week trying to time every move.

Finally, some support broke...lets see how far it can go. I am thinking that it should do a decent move lower, with how long that support held up.


Edit: I guess I spoke too soon.


Edit 2: Well, at least one of my trades short GBP/CHF saw some action and just closed for +30 pips

Originally Posted by willaballa

Finally, some support broke...lets see how far it can go. I am thinking that it should do a decent move lower, with how long that support held up

FINALLY MOVED took a few pips short.

Originally Posted by MoneyManager

Jason, you can't trade like that -- unless you want to slowly go broke. You are willing to take a 90.25 short looking for 25 pips? That means you can only risk maybe 10 or 15 pips -- because if you are not consistently risking less than you are willing to win, you are a blown account waiting to be shown the door.

Personally, I find 10 or 15 pips within the "noise threshold" (mostly noise and almost no signal) on just about any time frame you can name. IOW, there is just about no system and no T/A that can defend you against a 10 or 15 pip move. They happen all the time, and more often than not they are absolutely meaningless in the larger sense. But if you don't take a loss at that point when you are only looking for 25 pips to bank, you are a dead man walking. This is, essentially, flipping a coin.

Now, if you don't usually trade like that, my apology. But I have seniority (and profitability) experience over just about *anyone* on these boards (why am I here then -- I'm retired, managing a rather substantial amount of family money, and I don't mind sharing what I've learned, and what you or any other trader does or believes is not going to affect me one bit). But, you cannot trade like that consistently and stay in this game. Anyone who says you can is selling snake oil.

This market is *ALWAYS* going to be here. Every day. Why not step back and wait for the fat pitch? That's exactly what major league batters do. They wait for a "mistake", and by God mistakes come. Same here. You *cannot* time every small move, and trying to do so just about guarantees you will go broke. Take the highest value trades, which by definition are trades that you can set a *meaningful* loss on. A dozen pips doesn't signify anything, 95 percent or more of the time. But if you are willing to take a profit at 25 pips, you cannot, you simply cannot, risk more than a dozen or so.

Great advice, thanks for taking the time to write that. Usually I would be looking for 100 pips on a profititable trade and willing to risk 25 pips loss. Just the last week or two I have been struggling with this pair and not too familiar with any others at the moment.

Agreed, I need to be looking for better trades.

Originally Posted by sandpipper

Hmm....Maybe the

Krona/Rupee or Shekel/Dong

Thanks. Funny, I'll admit that.

I always get leary in a market like this. I have seen it go from absolutely dead to a freefall because people get comfortable with the non movement then something happens and risk aversion kicks in and down goes the GJ.
Nov 09 was like this on the US Thanksgiving. Everything quiet then slam the market dropped out.
There are rumblings of Greece and and now Italy. It will only take one negative comment or action and we could see a freefall. Or not! This is why I will never go long in a market like this.
I dont want to get caught on my heels.

ADD GU is at a very important support level. If you look at a daily you can see where it was resistance 4 or 5 days and then support the last few days. If this breaks say bye bye to GJ.

Here it comes. I am just getting a gut feeling. Ill call it my Mihai indicator

ADD - It dropped 45 pips in last 10 minutes. Go Bears. End of week, Japan holiday, rumblings of risk aversion. It has all the makings of a freefall friday!

edit 1: Wow why i was typing this I went up 35 pips...gotta love the g/j
edit 2: Sl set to break even

GU is really trying to hold on!

Originally Posted by sandpipper

FINALLY MOVED took a few pips short.

Good for you! I am still holding my short looking for 137.20 it just needs to clear that last low on the 1 minute chart of 137.383

Originally Posted by 4xer

GU is really trying to hold on!

just took a g/u short as it just tested the support it broke through....these kind of trades have good R/R as you just set your S/L on the other side of support so we will see how it works. I took it without consulting my usual host of indicators...as it has a good chance of running...esp here at the open of London.

Here's a quick chart.

Hello ,

I am short this pay USD/JPY and I think there will be some pips move down soon on this pair

Ahhh I'm out, closed 'it early for +25 pips. Reason I closed early is because I have already surpassed my goal of 40% account gain for the month and we still have 8 trading days left in it. Also, it is time to get some rest. Have easy pippin' this morning everyone, be back tomorrow.

Originally Posted by willaballa

Ahhh I'm out, closed 'it early for +25 pips. Reason I closed early is because I have already surpassed my goal of 40% account gain for the month and we still have 8 trading days left in it. Also, it is time to get some rest. Have easy pippin' this morning everyone, be back tomorrow.

AH Yeah! What a crazy night, was a little nervous last night when the price went above 138, so I added more shorts and changed my target to 137.4, just got up and realizd that they were hit...going to be a good wekend!

Looking to short again after this recent spike up, target 137.

Short at 137.7 target 136.5 sl 138.20