Thread: Discuss USD/JPY, GBP/JPY, and other JPY Pairs

Originally Posted by Sean Hyman

I'm telling ya...you can't base what something did a year ago off of what is happening today. It's not that simple. Each year there are different dynamics that are pushing it. Last year's things that were pushing the pair at this time is not what is pushing it today. Therefore the outcomes will be different.

It's best just to judge the direction of the present trend and use good risk management while trading in the direction of that trend. That's as close to the Holy Grail as it gets.

i was not judging it by that... but it opens ure mind or to be careful of things that actually happened in the past a 400 pips rally for example ... if u are not ready for it then even with a small amount invested u are in danger to get close to a margin call ... so i agree with u on the money management, but keeping ure mind opened is also important, again, I say... i inspire myself of facts from the past to keep an opened mind

Originally Posted by skydiver

Oh yes,
Partly glad for for being indecisive............Short order activated @ 143.49. (every chance of going higher, though i would suspect 143.70 will be the top).

Sky - Why are you calling 143.70 the top. Can you share with me?

Originally Posted by wan0903

Hye guys...

im sorry for not in the forum,, im having workshop here and will be end on friday..

btw.. this is quick update for geppy.. luckily im out last monday,,

current high at 143538 is above 61.8 fibo (wave 2),, downside from 14502-13940 (wave 1)

if price continue it downtrend from here, then we are forming wave 3 (i like when it on wednesday tmorrow.. ).. where Fe 61.8 is at 14002, Fe 100 at 137.70 and Fe 161.8 is at 133.51..

btw, im not saying it will reach 13351, for me,, FE 100 will be enough.. ,,

currently im short at 143479..

happy trading guys

Thanks Wan. Always a pleasure to here from you. Im keeping my shorts and will add a few more when 142.5 breaks.

Let make some MOOLAH!

MR Sean Hyman


THAT IS TO SAY WITH FEW REASONS YOU SAY WE DO NOT GIVE IMPORTANCE IN WHAT PROMPTS THE PAIR ABOVE BUT ONLY IN THAT WE SEE IN OUR CHART.

Originally Posted by 4xer

Thanks Wan. Always a pleasure to here from you. Im keeping my shorts and will add a few more when 142.5 breaks.

Let make some MOOLAH!

hye Bro..

thanks.. yup.. let make some moolah.. quite sad bcoz can't share so much recently.. .. btw, try to look at MACD in 1H TF and RSI, both will give u signal after this to short..

have a good day guys...

p/s :- 4exer, how about ur proposal?

Originally Posted by 4xer

Sky - Why are you calling 143.70 the top. Can you share with me?

4xer, its nothing concrete.....but i see it like this.

Also have a look at 4hr RSI, draw a line from the recent high to now, hopefully its being capped @ 57 and will lean down now. Other than that its just how i see it playing out.
I would be surprised to see any great movements up but we both know anything can happen.....

Originally Posted by mag35

MR Sean Hyman


THAT IS TO SAY WITH FEW REASONS YOU SAY WE DO NOT GIVE IMPORTANCE IN WHAT PROMPTS THE PAIR ABOVE BUT ONLY IN THAT WE SEE IN OUR CHART.

Fundamentals form the trends...however, until the fundamentals change enough to change the trend, it doesn't matter.

Any reason that you use to fight a trend still makes it a low probability trade.

It doesn't mean that I don't look to fundamentals too. I do. But then I see if its enough to change the trend or if the trend stays intact. Much of the time, the major trend direction stays intact.

For instance, look at a daily chart going back about 3 years. Count the major trend changes. Typically there will be 1-2 changes and sometimes there may be no major trend change during that time. Yet there were a ton of news announcements between then and now.

Originally Posted by skydiver

4xer, its nothing concrete.....but i see it like this.

Also have a look at 4hr RSI, draw a line from the recent high to now, hopefully its being capped @ 57 and will lean down now. Other than that its just how i see it playing out.
I would be surprised to see any great movements up but we both know anything can happen.....

SKYDIVER, hmmm, we are ignoring tomorrow's morning data... Jobless claims, BoE minutes.... expected to lift the market ... will this be on the news, before or after... have a feeling before.... so waiting to close my position @ BE before that.... this might go much higher after a small correction, so my position is as follows.... i expect a retracement, might be tonight... where i am trying to close at best possible price and then wait for 4-5 in the morning... hope this plays out

Originally Posted by Sean Hyman

Fundamentals form the trends...however, until the fundamentals change enough to change the trend, it doesn't matter.

Any reason that you use to fight a trend still makes it a low probability trade.

It doesn't mean that I don't look to fundamentals too. I do. But then I see if its enough to change the trend or if the trend stays intact. Much of the time, the major trend direction stays intact.

For instance, look at a daily chart going back about 3 years. Count the major trend changes. Typically there will be 1-2 changes and sometimes there may be no major trend change during that time. Yet there were a ton of news announcements between then and now.

Hi Sean
As you are talking about fundementals I just wanted to say that any future talk on the significance of the uk election should now be disgarded. All scenarios have been priced into this if there is any movment on the back of such news it will be in one direction and that will be up. I say this because the worst scenario of a hung parliament is pretty much all ready on the table and expected back here in Blighty. Just a thought for the coming weeks.

I'm still on the bear side. Looks to me like a breakout and market retesting.
I would wait till the 4H or at least the 60m STOCHASTIC crosses over and would enter with a tight stop. Let’s see what happens tonight or tomorrow
.

15M TF - MACD negative divergence
1H TF - MACD very close to bearish crossover
not able to break above 143.5/6

50-75 pip down from here, what say?

current- 143.30

A pretty near term uptrend indeed...

Originally Posted by mihaia2002

SKYDIVER, hmmm, we are ignoring tomorrow's morning data... Jobless claims, BoE minutes.... expected to lift the market ... will this be on the news, before or after... have a feeling before.... so waiting to close my position @ BE before that.... this might go much higher after a small correction, so my position is as follows.... i expect a retracement, might be tonight... where i am trying to close at best possible price and then wait for 4-5 in the morning... hope this plays out

There is something always round the corner and i must admit im not one for trading the news these days. There is the possibility that any good news expected has just done its job.

The only good news that the B of E can relish in is the UK export market and because of that they wont be to keen to strenthen the pound. In there own words they want to keep the pound down.
The bigger than thought of inflation figures will be put down to the ever changing petrol costs and will be negated around.
I do think employment figures could come out better, not enough to get excited about. The last months report came out good and price went down after 15 mins, if memory serves correctly.

As with Wan im not looking for a big drop here. 142.20 and i will be out. The Bulls will also off load positions prior to tomorrow morning which will help our cause.

Here is a 60m chart maybe time to start geting in.

CHF/JPY appears to be breaking down a bit. If it can additionally break the horizontal support, then it could be a good short. It would need to close a candle in the circled area or below.

We'll see.