Thread: Discuss USD/JPY, GBP/JPY, and other JPY Pairs

Originally Posted by ------69

...but my indicator is good because I couple it with RSI. When the price gets back into between the 2nd & 1st band, and the RSI heads south, you will have often a very profitable trade. I am in the green of 4 pips now. I target at least 15-2o pips or more by tonight.

Cheers

I hope it works for you. I too am short right now, but for other reason and a different timescale. I just don't want to see you get stuck over the weekend with the potential for a Sunday gap. I think this is just going to drift the rest of the day since retail will close soon and most corporate traders have their systems shut down for the week.

I'd like to give some input on GBP/JPY. I'll try to attach a chart, which I'm not good at so hope it works.

Looks to me that, given it's momentum it should it clear 145.00, and then the 146.00 area looks like a logical place to try to short where there is a confluence of resistances on the daily chart. 200 sma, 38.2 Fibo of the whole move up from Jan to Aug 2009, and a falling trend line meeting a rising trend line.

Hope the chart comes out.

Keith (Bangkok Thailand)

Originally Posted by Uber FX nUblet7

Long @93.55
S/L tight @-25 pips, now moved to break even.

I'm positive about 60 pips now. I've never held a position longer than 5 days. I'm going to try a different approach and hold on for awhile.

Looks like I may have caught my wave Sean. I never thought it would be an 'Elliot Wave' LOL

There are only two difficult skills to learn about trading: managing losers ... and managing winners.

If you are going to survive at all, you have to manage losers. You have to learn to kill them, without prejudice, before they kill you. You *must* manage losers.

But that will only keep you alive.

To thrive. To make serious money. You have to manage winners correctly. And this is no easy thing if you are timid or playing with scared money.

About the position you described, I would say this: Don't, under any circumstance, move your stop above breakeven. To make a killing in this or any other market, it is necessary to risk *ALL* your profits.

This is no easy thing to do.

But you must do it if you want to be a winner over time. You are going to be wrong a lot. Everyone is. You are going to need to CRUSH the market when you are right. Taking insufficient profits is *not* the way to crush the market.

It's tough. Don't let me kid you. The market will look for your psychological weak point, and it will exploit it. For many, that weak point is taking profits too soon.

Judge for yourself on this one particular position. But be advised that in order to win consistently, you need *some* trades with smashing, tremendous profit. This is well known by people who trade. A successful trader may have less than 50 percent winners, but he/she has some huge winners, without which, they would be net losers. There is no other way to play the game, and anyone who tells you otherwise is a rube.

Edit: Many futures traders, for example, will tell you that they only win, say, 33 to 40 percent of their trades. That's one fact. But the other fact you will find, if you dig deeper, is that if they didn't have, say, their number 1 and number 2 most profitable trades, they would be net losers. Verdict: you *must* have the occasional *huge* net winner. Without them, you are just a hanger-on, and you eventually will burn out. Maybe this isn't the one. But somewhere, you will need one or two. Rule: (same as with casino gambling) Be very timid with *your own* money, but be very fearless with the house's money. It's really that simple. Go for broke when broke really means break even. Don't ever go for broke when broke means broke. But when you have the chance, you need to go for broke. It's a tough game and you need those big wins once in a while.

Originally Posted by Qabazard

Dear 4xer ..

You said : " We will wait for NYSE to slip with a little bit Risk Aversion , then we BEARS our big party will start "

Question plesae : Why have you linked it like that ?

Indeed , Fundamentally speaking , Morgan Stanley report for this week and said that :

"Aussie and Loonie are unsurprisingly down due to S&P500 underperformance"

Again .. what is the link in between ?

Plesae dear brothers .. any clarificatioin ? I ould really appreciate it

Nothing but an observation. I have traded the beast for quite a few years now. It changes all the time. Just when you get comfortable with an indicator or system it will change and not follow the "rules" so to speak.

I have simply observed that when it doesnt react to the indicators it usually is following the simple yet complex dynamic of "risk appetite/risk aversion"

Right now the GJ is simply following risk appetite/ risk aversion. When you see the NYSE down the GJ is down. When you see it up it is going up. The hard part is you never know what the the NYSE is going to do.

I am just calling the GJ to go down from here. I am looking at this trade to be a larger and longer timer frame trade. This happens a few times a year. Earnings reports are coming to an end.

Greece is getting a bandaid that wont help there situation. It will just buy them some time. Fear will kick in again and the GJ will drop. Take a look at any chart. It builds up and up and up and then BAM in falls off a cliff. The hard part is trying to find a top on the GJ.

I currently have shorts starting in the 141.75 area all the way up to 144.75. My BE on the trade is at 143.50 area. I have margin available and I am just waiting. That is one reason I am not scalping or swing trading alot right now. I will place a scalp or swing long right now for 30 - 50 pips. This acts like a hedge but I can still profit while I am waiting.

I want to see if I can hold these trades as long as Wan or Brad does. I think there is another big drop coming. I think it will go deep when it goes. I am just positioning myself to profit fromthis. In the meantime it is a game of patience and not overleveraging the acct. If GJ goes north of 145 I will start to reconsider. North of 146 and this trade is over.

Watch the NYSE and GJ together. They track each other. GU is going down. UJ I am unclear on. However I dont think the world economy is out the woods yet and when the panic or fear kicks in it will drop. My $.02

Goodluck to all. I really want this drop to come I am positioned for it and ready.

Originally Posted by MoneyManager

There are only two difficult skills to learn about trading: managing losers ... and managing winners.

If you are going to survive at all, you have to manage losers. You have to learn to kill them, without prejudice, before they kill you. You *must* manage losers.

But that will only keep you alive.

To thrive. To make serious money. You have to manage winners correctly. And this is no easy thing if you are timid or playing with scared money.

About the position you described, I would say this: Don't, under any circumstance, move your stop above breakeven. To make a killing in this or any other market, it is necessary to risk *ALL* your profits.

This is no easy thing to do.

But you must do it if you want to be a winner over time. You are going to be wrong a lot. Everyone is. You are going to need to CRUSH the market when you are right. Taking insufficient profits is *not* the way to crush the market.

It's tough. Don't let me kid you. The market will look for your psychological weak point, and it will exploit it. For many, that weak point is taking profits too soon.

Judge for yourself on this one particular position. But be advised that in order to win consistently, you need *some* trades with smashing, tremendous profit. This is well known by people who trade. A successful trader may have less than 50 percent winners, but he/she has some huge winners, without which, they would be net losers. There is no other way to play the game, and anyone who tells you otherwise is a rube.

Edit: Many futures traders, for example, will tell you that they only win, say, 33 to 40 percent of their trades. That's one fact. But the other fact you will find, if you dig deeper, is that if they didn't have, say, their number 1 and number 2 most profitable trades, they would be net losers. Verdict: you *must* have the occasional *huge* net winner. Without them, you are just a hanger-on, and you eventually will burn out. Maybe this isn't the one. But somewhere, you will need one or two. Rule: (same as with casino gambling) Be very timid with *your own* money, but be very fearless with the house's money. It's really that simple. Go for broke when broke really means break even. Don't ever go for broke when broke means broke. But when you have the chance, you need to go for broke. It's a tough game and you need those big wins once in a while.

Very good points you make. I have gone up and down in this trading thing. One thing I don't like doing is watching 100 pips on the board wash away. I am a consistent 'lock in something and let it ride' kind of person. It is very hard to identify mid swing the high momentum trades that will give me huge winners. I will digest what you have offered here and apply it where I can. Thx again.

Originally Posted by Uber FX nUblet7

Very good points you make. I have gone up and down in this trading thing. One thing I don't like doing is watching 100 pips on the board wash away. I am a consistent 'lock in something and let it ride' kind of person. It is very hard to identify mid swing the high momentum trades that will give me huge winners. I will digest what you have offered here and apply it where I can. Thx again.

There is nothing wrong with locking in some profit IMO. I am an Elliott Wave trader and it says that this is probably a "b" wave which is probably almost over, and the "c" wave will go to the 90.25 range, I'm not trying to scare you off a profitable trade because the alternate Elliottwave count says this could go up from here to at least 96.5. Good Luck.

Originally Posted by Uber FX nUblet7

Very good points you make. I have gone up and down in this trading thing. One thing I don't like doing is watching 100 pips on the board wash away. I am a consistent 'lock in something and let it ride' kind of person. It is very hard to identify mid swing the high momentum trades that will give me huge winners. I will digest what you have offered here and apply it where I can. Thx again.

You are welcome, and I hope you find a nugget that you can use. I have always believed though, that one secret of this is simply "be rather timid with your own money, but be a bold pig with the house's money".

It does take judgment of course.

But let's face it, taking a small profit simply means we are going to have to get in there somewhere else and risk that profit anyway -- none of us are here for small potatoes. So let's take *massive* profits once in a while. After all, if you take a profit on a trend, you need to be right twice. You need to be right that the pullback is going to be right now after you took the profit, and you need to be right that you are going to know when the pullback has ended and it's safe to get back in. That sounds a lot more difficult than "be a pig when it's going your way".

I'm also of the belief that a trader should stand aside now and then. It's a lot easier to do that after booking a really fat profit, than after booking chump change.

Originally Posted by MoneyManager

There are only two difficult skills to learn about trading: managing losers ... and managing winners.

If you are going to survive at all, you have to manage losers. You have to learn to kill them, without prejudice, before they kill you. You *must* manage losers.

But that will only keep you alive.

To thrive. To make serious money. You have to manage winners correctly. And this is no easy thing if you are timid or playing with scared money.

About the position you described, I would say this: Don't, under any circumstance, move your stop above breakeven. To make a killing in this or any other market, it is necessary to risk *ALL* your profits.

This is no easy thing to do.

But you must do it if you want to be a winner over time. You are going to be wrong a lot. Everyone is. You are going to need to CRUSH the market when you are right. Taking insufficient profits is *not* the way to crush the market.

It's tough. Don't let me kid you. The market will look for your psychological weak point, and it will exploit it. For many, that weak point is taking profits too soon.

Judge for yourself on this one particular position. But be advised that in order to win consistently, you need *some* trades with smashing, tremendous profit. This is well known by people who trade. A successful trader may have less than 50 percent winners, but he/she has some huge winners, without which, they would be net losers. There is no other way to play the game, and anyone who tells you otherwise is a rube.

Edit: Many futures traders, for example, will tell you that they only win, say, 33 to 40 percent of their trades. That's one fact. But the other fact you will find, if you dig deeper, is that if they didn't have, say, their number 1 and number 2 most profitable trades, they would be net losers. Verdict: you *must* have the occasional *huge* net winner. Without them, you are just a hanger-on, and you eventually will burn out. Maybe this isn't the one. But somewhere, you will need one or two. Rule: (same as with casino gambling) Be very timid with *your own* money, but be very fearless with the house's money. It's really that simple. Go for broke when broke really means break even. Don't ever go for broke when broke means broke. But when you have the chance, you need to go for broke. It's a tough game and you need those big wins once in a while.

While I agree with some of your points. I disagree that one should risk ALL profits. Trading for a break even is not in my opinion a profitable outlook and no different to playing a game for a draw and setting all your players on the goal line. What's wrong in moving a stop down to the last low high or up to the last high low beyond the break even? I think it's essential to have some guaranteed profit, hence targets that are suitable and PLANNED for the initial risk BEFORE the trade is opened. Why not set profit targets of 20 pip or 50 pip increments? Why make a nice profit, to let it all go back to break even? I think that planning in-profit stops builds discipline. I've started banking my pips on partial market moves, so that I can get more pips from it rather than being in it for the entire move.

All the best,
Lee.

Originally Posted by Lee Saunders

While I agree with some of your points. I disagree that one should risk ALL profits. Trading for a break even is not in my opinion a profitable outlook and no different to playing a game for a draw and setting all your players on the goal line. What's wrong in moving a stop down to the last low high or up to the last high low beyond the break even? I think it's essential to have some guaranteed profit, hence targets that are suitable and PLANNED for the initial risk BEFORE the trade is opened. Why not set profit targets of 20 pip or 50 pip increments? Why make a nice profit, to let it all go back to break even? I think that planning in-profit stops builds discipline. I've started banking my pips on partial market moves, so that I can get more pips from it rather than being in it for the entire move.

All the best,
Lee.

Let me be clear. It's not risk all the profits all the time, but sometimes, yes, risk all the way back to zero.

You can talk all you want about discipline. It's good, particularly when it comes to cutting losers. But that same discipline can kill you when you take winners too early.

And I'm not talking about measly 20 or 50 pip profits. I'm sitting on 700 pip profits right now, expecting another 700. I won't get them by playing timid.

If you can only play for small change, then small change is all you will ever make. Think about it. Sooner or later you will get crushed because the market will leap your stop. You *will* have a big loser, eventually. So you need a big winner to compensate for that.

Ignore me if you don't think I make sense. I've only been doing this for 4 decades.

Edit: One other thing, which I mentioned to Sean in this thread: If you *are* going to "go for broke" (not broke, really, but risk profits down to breakeven), the *best* time to do this is the first time you see a valid trend change. Again, *IF* this is a valid trend change, it could last for a year, two years, three years, whatever. The yen could be on its way to 120. The yen could be on its way to 135. Nobody knows. But we do have signs of a trend change. Letting winners ride that enter at 95, or 97, is much more psychologically difficult than letting winners entered at 92 or 91 (or in my case 87) run. And the higher this trend runs (assuming it does run), the more difficult holding higher-entered winners gets -- because the potential for pullback becomes greater. So, no, I don't recommend just letting every trade run back to breakeven. But when you see a possible trend reversal, and you have gotten in on the beginning of it, then that is where the real money is made -- buying a trend early and defying the market to reverse that trend. You have to have 'nads. And I won't claim it's easy. But I will claim that this is where the serious money is made.

I also don't want you to think that, after a "massive" profit, you should play back to zero. That would be insane -- to give up massive profits. But if I was long here at, say, 90, I'd say to the market, okay, prove me wrong, suckers. Take it *all* *the* *way* *back* *to* *90* or blow yourselves. If it goes to 97, I'm unlikely to allow it to go all the way back to 90 in that case. But I'm likely to risk 2/3 or so, maybe more. Yeah, I'll have an escape plan by then. But my point is that the market is not going to be able to bluff me. A "scare" won't do it. It will take really serious price action to dislodge me. And sometimes it happens. But if the trend has really reversed, more often I'm going to enjoy more profit by hanging in there.

Originally Posted by MoneyManager

Let me be clear. It's not risk all the profits all the time, but sometimes, yes, risk all the way back to zero.

You can talk all you want about discipline. It's good, particularly when it comes to cutting losers. But that same discipline can kill you when you take winners too early.

And I'm not talking about measly 20 or 50 pip profits. I'm sitting on 700 pip profits right now, expecting another 700. I won't get them by playing timid.

If you can only play for small change, then small change is all you will ever make. Think about it. Sooner or later you will get crushed because the market will leap your stop. You *will* have a big loser, eventually. So you need a big winner to compensate for that.

Ignore me if you don't think I make sense. I've only been doing this for 4 decades.

Edit: One other thing, which I mentioned to Sean in this thread: If you *are* going to "go for broke" (not broke, really, but risk profits down to breakeven), the *best* time to do this is the first time you see a valid trend change. Again, *IF* this is a valid trend change, it could last for a year, two years, three years, whatever. The yen could be on its way to 120. The yen could be on its way to 135. Nobody knows. But we do have signs of a trend change. Letting winners ride that enter at 95, or 97, is much more psychologically difficult than letting winners entered at 92 or 91 (or in my case 87) run. And the higher this trend runs (assuming it does run), the more difficult holding higher-entered winners gets -- because the potential for pullback becomes greater. So, no, I don't recommend just letting every trade run back to breakeven. But when you see a possible trend reversal, and you have gotten in on the beginning of it, then that is where the real money is made -- buying a trend early and defying the market to reverse that trend. You have to have 'nads. And I won't claim it's easy. But I will claim that this is where the serious money is made.

I also don't want you to think that, after a "massive" profit, you should play back to zero. That would be insane -- to give up massive profits. But if I was long here at, say, 90, I'd say to the market, okay, prove me wrong, suckers. Take it *all* *the* *way* *back* *to* *90* or blow yourselves. If it goes to 97, I'm unlikely to allow it to go all the way back to 90 in that case. But I'm likely to risk 2/3 or so, maybe more. Yeah, I'll have an escape plan by then. But my point is that the market is not going to be able to bluff me. A "scare" won't do it. It will take really serious price action to dislodge me. And sometimes it happens. But if the trend has really reversed, more often I'm going to enjoy more profit by hanging in there.

Thank you for your response. I assume then that you are a long-term trader. How long have you had that position open for?

Maybe as a returning newbie, I'm much more cautious, and trading a small micro account is probably adding to that. Maybe in the future, when my account has got bigger, I'll be more confident about breaking even more often. Regarding huge losses, well there shouldn't be any if risk management is used. How can the market leap the stop other than over the weekend? I think that the confidence you have is something to aspire to, but this will take time. I'm still working out what a trend reversal looks like and whether a long wick will be sustainable. Getting a break even trade every time, is for me at this stage not all that inspiring, but I do wait for some profit before moving by stop further. Okay, I'm not getting as much return at the moment, but with confidence and knowledge, I too might be able to abstain from closing out early.

Thanks for your time,
Lee.

There is even a more difficult thing to do these days and that is to remain a Long Term Trader / Position Holder, not because you cant do it but just because there will be a lot of opposition from various sources and people will try to get you to join the Scalpers Club ...

I really dont know how to express this but all I can say is that I salute your courage to write these points. I've had my share of difficulties to explain that the serious wealth is made with the MASSIVE (as you named it) profits and not just building up smaller set of profits for a longer duration.

But on the other hand I also believe that its all part of you yourself ... you got to have either of this running in your blood and no one but just you will be able to identify what is it that you do best ... short term or long term, taking profits early and keep trying it to do several times during one long run OR just sit on it and let the loads of pips making you wealth. It has to come from within and unfortunately we cant change our personality.

I know during the modern times and the ever-growing love around Scalping and more and more poeple getting into 1mn timeframe its very hard to explain the points you are trying to do ... but just be assured that you're still not the last one left on this island ... there are some others too.

Keep it up and Good luck.

Originally Posted by MoneyManager

There are only two difficult skills to learn about trading: managing losers ... and managing winners.

If you are going to survive at all, you have to manage losers. You have to learn to kill them, without prejudice, before they kill you. You *must* manage losers.

But that will only keep you alive.

To thrive. To make serious money. You have to manage winners correctly. And this is no easy thing if you are timid or playing with scared money.

About the position you described, I would say this: Don't, under any circumstance, move your stop above breakeven. To make a killing in this or any other market, it is necessary to risk *ALL* your profits.

This is no easy thing to do.

But you must do it if you want to be a winner over time. You are going to be wrong a lot. Everyone is. You are going to need to CRUSH the market when you are right. Taking insufficient profits is *not* the way to crush the market.

It's tough. Don't let me kid you. The market will look for your psychological weak point, and it will exploit it. For many, that weak point is taking profits too soon.

Judge for yourself on this one particular position. But be advised that in order to win consistently, you need *some* trades with smashing, tremendous profit. This is well known by people who trade. A successful trader may have less than 50 percent winners, but he/she has some huge winners, without which, they would be net losers. There is no other way to play the game, and anyone who tells you otherwise is a rube.

Edit: Many futures traders, for example, will tell you that they only win, say, 33 to 40 percent of their trades. That's one fact. But the other fact you will find, if you dig deeper, is that if they didn't have, say, their number 1 and number 2 most profitable trades, they would be net losers. Verdict: you *must* have the occasional *huge* net winner. Without them, you are just a hanger-on, and you eventually will burn out. Maybe this isn't the one. But somewhere, you will need one or two. Rule: (same as with casino gambling) Be very timid with *your own* money, but be very fearless with the house's money. It's really that simple. Go for broke when broke really means break even. Don't ever go for broke when broke means broke. But when you have the chance, you need to go for broke. It's a tough game and you need those big wins once in a while.

Originally Posted by 4xer

Nothing but an observation. I have traded the beast for quite a few years now. It changes all the time. Just when you get comfortable with an indicator or system it will change and not follow the "rules" so to speak.

I have simply observed that when it doesnt react to the indicators it usually is following the simple yet complex dynamic of "risk appetite/risk aversion"

Right now the GJ is simply following risk appetite/ risk aversion. When you see the NYSE down the GJ is down. When you see it up it is going up. The hard part is you never know what the the NYSE is going to do.

I am just calling the GJ to go down from here. I am looking at this trade to be a larger and longer timer frame trade. This happens a few times a year. Earnings reports are coming to an end.




Greece is getting a bandaid that wont help there situation. It will just buy them some time. Fear will kick in again and the GJ will drop. Take a look at any chart. It builds up and up and up and then BAM in falls off a cliff. The hard part is trying to find a top on the GJ.

I currently have shorts starting in the 141.75 area all the way up to 144.75. My BE on the trade is at 143.50 area. I have margin available and I am just waiting. That is one reason I am not scalping or swing trading alot right now. I will place a scalp or swing long right now for 30 - 50 pips. This acts like a hedge but I can still profit while I am waiting.

I want to see if I can hold these trades as long as Wan or Brad does. I think there is another big drop coming. I think it will go deep when it goes. I am just positioning myself to profit fromthis. In the meantime it is a game of patience and not overleveraging the acct. If GJ goes north of 145 I will start to reconsider. North of 146 and this trade is over.

Watch the NYSE and GJ together. They track each other. GU is going down. UJ I am unclear on. However I dont think the world economy is out the woods yet and when the panic or fear kicks in it will drop. My $.02

Goodluck to all. I really want this drop to come I am positioned for it and ready.

Also, the climb up from 132 area has to partly be contributed to the BOE inflation figures that came out last month. My thought is that the market was expecting an interest rate hike Spring /Summer 2010 (as reported) and have priced that in.
Now that GDP has come out 50%!! lower than expected, this now, in my eyes, scuppers any chance of that rate hike. How can an interest rate hike be justified when growth is so poor for the UK.
Price will soon have to reflect that reality.

One other thought is that Fridays news regarding Greece asking for a Euro/IMF bailout was pretty much anticapated and by the look of the bond market rejoiced in the fact. However, I think this was a knee jerk reaction to how the German government so politely accepted the fact that European tax payers will gladly hand their hard earnt cash over to Greece. I dont think it will all happen that simply. For one, there are 4 countries that make up the PIGS. The hilarious thing is that the other 3 countries will also be expected to dip into their pockets and help Greece, even if they are on the precipice of bankruptcy themselves.

The rumour in the press is that the markets will soon turn their attention on Portugal, what im trying to say is that Risk is very much still out their.

From what i can see Fridays climb up had more to do with the G20 announcing that an exit plan from the Global stimulous had to be implemented due to prosperity returning. Im kind of glad that came out on a Friday so that we have had a weekend for that statement to become diluted. We will know on the market opening if that optimism remains.

I really like all the charts and ideas that people have posted on here and its difficult to argue with any of them with regards to what will happen next.
My open positions arent that dis-similar to 4xers and neither is my trading plan, i will hedge them up to 146 if 145 gets broken and if 146 goes then i will accept my loss.

I see a hundred point drop with in the next 4 hours after the open.

i guess i cannot stay away from this. 145 and then down, an hourly close above 145 will take us to 145.85... and then lower, possible, now that i think clear... one sell signal is an hourly candle closing under 144.2, if this happens then the next target is 142.5 for now

I am bullish this week I see the pair going to 94.70 to 95.00 range this week. So after I rake in the 100 pip down move I am going long from 93.30 to 95.00. Good luck guys