Thread: GBP and JPY Pairs H1 2013

It looks like a big short squeeze - the low vix indicates that the markets and risk trades are due for a big fall, but anything you do now will probably have to be held over the weekend

Originally Posted by keforex

So... are we going to see eur/usd at 1.3685 friday? Asian stocks on the rise, dow futures positive... what do you guys think?

Hehe we're well on our way! If it happens it will yeld a cool 221 pips for me. If it reverses before the weekend I'm taking at least 200.

Hello, I am new to Forex, started to study a month ago. I love that. Difficult, but very interesting. Punitive but challenging. I have a question for the pros. This morning, after the announce of the GDP, I was expecting the EUR/USD to go down. I have the habit to check the stochastic on a 1 hr chart. So I felt confidant by going short at 1.3580. But, as you know, something happen. Fortunately, I had a 50 pip protective stop. I would like to understand what happen, taking in account that the EUR should be weaker, and the USD stronger after the announce.

Thanks a lot!!

Mock? Who Me? I would never Mock. I'm too new at this Trading to get cocky, least of all Mock. My stop is at 1,3685. It's come close but hasn't got there yet. I could still get lucky and make a few bucks on this one In any case it'll be a Wash, canceling out My earlier Profit. Que Sera, Sera!

Bill

P.S. When the london Market closes at Noon, I'll be looking for a drop back to My Happy Zone.

Originally Posted by rickos

I had an order in at 3650 but cancelled it before it got there.
I don't like its behavior today. I think Bill has made it mad by continously nibbling at it, and then mocking it.

Originally Posted by EMorin

Hello, I am new to Forex, started to study a month ago. I love that. Difficult, but very interesting. Punitive but challenging. I have a question for the pros. This morning, after the announce of the GDP, I was expecting the EUR/USD to go down. I have the habit to check the stochastic on a 1 hr chart. So I felt confidant by going short at 1.3580. But, as you know, something happen. Fortunately, I had a 50 pip protective stop. I would like to understand what happen, taking in account that the EUR should be weaker, and the USD stronger after the announce.

Thanks a lot!!

Sometimes there does not seem to be a logical explanation to the market's reaction to a release. This is one of the many dangers to trading these events. It is more about the traders' expectations than the actual number. Predicting the news release is one thing while predicting the market's reaction is another. If you do wish to trade these, you are better off just waiting for the market's response and react to that. Tough way to trade though.

Originally Posted by EMorin

Hello, I am new to Forex, started to study a month ago. I love that. Difficult, but very interesting. Punitive but challenging. I have a question for the pros. This morning, after the announce of the GDP, I was expecting the EUR/USD to go down. I have the habit to check the stochastic on a 1 hr chart. So I felt confidant by going short at 1.3580. But, as you know, something happen. Fortunately, I had a 50 pip protective stop. I would like to understand what happen, taking in account that the EUR should be weaker, and the USD stronger after the announce.

Thanks a lot!!

When a lot of stops are hit almost at the same time and/or there is profit taking, a small flood of dollars happens and its value gets diminished, hence the eur/usd chart going up. Those who were long (like me) took profits and as you can see right now there's a little reversal from the 1.3690 area. Taking profit in this case means dumping the euros for dollars, so the supply of euros raises, bringing down its value. Consider also that other investors might be willing to take risks in other markets, dumping specific currencies for certain equities - that affects the supply/demand of that particular currency, driving its prices up or down. It's a beautiful game.

The vix went below 20 this morning - the last time this happened on Tuesday there was a major sell off in commodity currencies, and gbp and euro

I just bailed out at 1.3604. I made 33 Pips. I just realized today is Friday and didn't want to hold an open position over the Weekend. This will probably continue to Dive, But what the heck! A Profit is a Profit and that ain't Bad.

Bill

Holy Smoke! I just went back to take a look. Did I really bail at the absolute bottom. I have never done that before.

Originally Posted by bill2759

Mock? Who Me? I would never Mock. I'm too new at this Trading to get cocky, least of all Mock. My stop is at 1,3685. It's come close but hasn't got there yet. I could still get lucky and make a few bucks on this one In any case it'll be a Wash, canceling out My earlier Profit. Que Sera, Sera!

Bill

P.S. When the london Market closes at Noon, I'll be looking for a drop back to My Happy Zone.

The Bill man does it again...

What has happened to the New Yorkers of Old. I just heard volume is way down at NYSE due to the drifting Snow. When I was a Boy I had to walk a Mile uphill to the Subway station in My barefeet. The most my Boss would have allowed is a little Tardiness due to Weather conditions. Bunch of Sissies!

Bill the Bold

Originally Posted by Mary R

The vix went below 20 this morning - the last time this happened on Tuesday there was a major sell off in commodity currencies, and gbp and euro

Your right Mary. When volatility gets this cheap it tends to stir things up.

Apparently the Greek PM visit to Washington has been verified.
What is interesting, is that this is scheduled for Mar 9.
AFTER this was announced, Merkel called Papandreou and asked to see him in Germany on the 5th...

I think those meetings with the Greek PM may have been at least partly responsible for today's euro rally

Originally Posted by Mary R

I think those meetings with the Greek PM may have been at least partly responsible for today's euro rally

And you heard here first folks...
Here's support for Mary's opinion regarding today's euro rally.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/35599352

Originally Posted by bill2759

I just bailed out at 1.3604. I made 33 Pips. I just realized today is Friday and didn't want to hold an open position over the Weekend. This will probably continue to Dive, But what the heck! A Profit is a Profit and that ain't Bad.

Bill

Holy Smoke! I just went back to take a look. Did I really bail at the absolute bottom. I have never done that before.

I wouldn't be so confident with that downward bias, even in case of a decrease back towards 1.35700, the bullish immediate trend remains intact. I like being patient in FX markets. I'm glad of myself for having stuck to my decision not to open any position this week as signals are too mixed.

Anyway, congrats a lot Bill for your recent exit in your trade =)


I don't really open intraday trades as I hate placing stop orders. In my trading system, I need a strong plan in case the market goes against me.