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07-23-2010, 12:53 AM #42781
Don t argue too much, to go up, you need people who are short and get squeeze. Same when everybody say that the $ will go at 2, (remember at 1.60) we crash to 124. We need both sides, the game is to be with the winners
Originally Posted by Pivotal12
07-23-2010, 01:08 AM #42782
07-23-2010, 01:14 AM #42783
I hear what you are saying but I believe that currency trading is all about making money for people/entities/governments which enormous wealth. If the Euro speeds off to 1.60 in the next several months, what then? Does it just sit there? Does it go even higher? How much higher can it go? Does it just oscillate around 1.45? Up 5 cents down 5 cents. Like I said, take a look at the monthly chart. Price goes up to extremes and then down to extremes. We hit the upper extreme twice already in the past couple of years. That means we now need to hit the lower extreme. Currencies are not like a stock market. They can't just head in in one direction for 50 years. The price MUST oscillate, it is just the nature of currencies.
07-23-2010, 01:17 AM #42784
Well, ordinarily I would stay fairly silent and just watch from the sidelines, but recent posts prompt me to make the following observations:
I dont care how old or young you are, antagonizing others because you dis-agree with thier methods, analysis, or inputs is just juvenile and we should all know better. Not all of us are going to agree with each others analysis, and we should all be mature enough to either ignore what we dis-agree with, or to communicate questions or concerns without being antagonistic. I find it especially distaateful that anyone who would be a part of this forum would EVER harp on someones mistake, mis-read, or drawdown. Seriously, that is literally the crudest behavior I could ever imagine from adults who supposedly are gathering to share information with the common goal of making more profits. If someone is OK with having drawdowns or reversals, thats THEM, and thier approach, why would you ever care enough to be rude? Personally, this is very distasteful and a bit disturbing.
Just post your analysis, entry/exit points, questions about analysis, etc and lets all concentrate on what we are here for, helping each other make a dollar or four.
07-23-2010, 01:18 AM #42785
I know exactly what you're talking about and I thank you for the reply.
Originally Posted by Renegade
Even though I only play with a nickel, I could maybe get lucky. I too am hooked on this game, and if I only placed 1k lots, I could hang for the long term. But I'd rather know verses speculate.
That's why I play the shorter game, 1 min to 1 day and sometimes more, but rarely. I can't watch $500.00 disappear like that when I'm wrong. So I choose and try to make or lose $50.00 here/there and then understand why it happened. Obviously you have years of experience on me, but when I understand, that's when I can learn and improve. I've done OK thus far, but honestly, I can mostly attribute my winnings to pattern recognition. I dance with the news, but frequently I see the news having no effect or the opposite effect.
In this pair today, I'm hanging on the news, but only because it has shown prudent to do so. But again, I just want to understand the patterns that I see, so if I see a move based on the news, that makes sense. But, if I see a move that does not correspond with the news, then I need to understand why.
I don't play with much capital, but I do play to understand. If/when I do, then I'd feel more comfortable playing months verses days.
Do you by chance have any advice for me? I'm just a petty player of the game, but a student always!
07-23-2010, 01:24 AM #42786
I know that Forex can be crazy Pivot. Take a look at November 18, 2008 to December 17, 2008. Price went from a low of 1.2422 to a high of 1.4718. Think about that! 23 cents in one month. That is insane! What is even more insane is that price was back down at 1.2455 by March 3. I was trading during that period of time and was blown away by the fact that no one was really concerned. Now, we move a couple of pennies and everyone is freaking out. In conclusion, I would like to say that everything in the currency markets is pure speculation and I realize that. I certainly would not bet my life on the direction of the Eur/USD!!
07-23-2010, 01:35 AM #42787
t3t4, take a look at the dollar/yen monthly chart. You will see that we are at an extreme low, not seen since 1995. Taking a long position in dollar yen, even if it is a small position, and letting it ride for a few years could turn out to be a big money maker. As your capital increases from your earnings, add more to your position on pull backs. You may be able to ride it up to 1.30-1.40 and you won't have to watch it night and day. You can do your other short term trading and just let dollar/yen ride. The yen is insanely over valued. The fundamental health of Japan's economy stinks and will only get worse. How much lower can dollar/yen go to the downside? Not to far without Japan imploding!
07-23-2010, 01:45 AM #42788
El Pais Newspaper: Some Spain banks didnot pass the stress tests..
07-23-2010, 01:53 AM #42789
Well, so much for my slow pull back prediction tonight, but how about a fast one instead? I'm a bit shocked, but in a winning position.
07-23-2010, 01:55 AM #42790
If your winning I would humbly suggest to move stops to protect profit, as this could easily correct up. Remember, take profit or the market will.
Originally Posted by t3t4
07-23-2010, 02:05 AM #42791
Thank you for the reminder, and I did. I got out on the retrace @1.28752 and went long. I do hope it doesn't turn around to bite me. But I have great expectations of that 1.30 +.
Originally Posted by dwalker
07-23-2010, 02:07 AM #42792
Not exactly. Some "cajas" (minor banks} wont pass the bar required by the Tier 1 tests, which is 6% ownership. THIS IS 50% above the legal requirements of 4%.
Originally Posted by KUTERO
According to Price Waterhouse's Justo Alcocer, the vast majority of the Spanish financial system will obtain a very good qualifications, especially the big banks such as Santander, BBV and La Caixa (the three entities represent two thirds of the entire sector).
Slightly different, ah captain?
07-23-2010, 02:13 AM #42793
I l"ove" the not having to watch the market part, I'm over due for a year of sleep....LOL
Originally Posted by Renegade
But I'll take a good look at the USD/JPY and do my best to choose an entry point.
Thanks for the advice, I appreciate it.
07-23-2010, 02:29 AM #42794
But news was like that as flash..
Originally Posted by Pivotal12
52 pips falling suddenly..
Details came later..
Thank you for your interest..
07-23-2010, 02:35 AM #42795
Explaining the STRESS TESTS
I seems to me than not many -if anyone- really know what the STRESS TESTS mean. I'll try to explain it:
It's purpose is to unclog the financial vials returning the confidence to the investment community, and the banks themselves, in the solvency of the institutions and thus allowing credit to return to the economy.
The tests will present three different scenarios:
The basic one, which contemplates the official expectations which already foresee a fall in the economy.
The second one, in which the European GDP falls 3 points more than the EU economic authorities expect in 2011, which produces significant unemployment and defaults increases, strong home and real estate depreciation, much less consumer activity and losses both in the enterprise level and the consumer level.
The third scenario is considerably more drastic because it adds a crisis of sovereign debt, different depending on the countries and different in repercussions depending on the institutions, the size and the quality of the debt that they hold. In other words, we are practically considering Armaggedon in scenario number three.
Obviously, many banks won't "pass" this last scenario, but that doesn't mean that they cannot continue with their normal activities, even if they have already used or are going to need to use some help from the Ordered Restructuring Bank Fund.
In the particular case of Spain, the International Monetary Fund estimated that, in case scenario number three (Armaggedon) comes to pass, Spain's financial institutions would need 22 billion Euro. The Ordered Restructuring Bank Fund has ALREADY distributed almost 15 billion. Spain's ORBF has still almost 2 billion Euro available and has easy access to the other 5 billion, if needed, through institutional loans.
This is, in specifics, what the STRESS TESTS mean and the specific situation in Spain, so we will understand, without unnecessary alarms often used with not very kosher purposes.
Last edited by Pivotal12; 07-23-2010 at 02:41 AM.