Thread: GBP and JPY Pairs H1 2013

Originally Posted by Colly

Sleep, yes, midnite... I promised myself.... thats 2 mins, and will look at this in the morning.

Until the morning guys and gurls

Originally Posted by Colly

1m chart attached.... I think perhaps I guessed right again

Couldn't sleep? Since you went to bed 2 minutes till midnight, it is now the following day for you.

Guessing is your strategy; does the truth come out now?

Originally Posted by brianborn1968

Why would you move your stop? What was your original analysis?

A correction to 3230 area before london opening

You place your stop for a reason or did you just guess where to put it? When price gets closer to 3100, will you move the stop again? [/QUOTE]

Stop was based on the risk i was willing to take versus possible gains i envisage; no as any more risk is not worth the possible gain available

Just curious as to how you decide on a stop.[/QUOTE]


I hope this helps?

Originally Posted by brianborn1968

Why would you move your stop? What was your original analysis? You place your stop for a reason or did you just guess where to put it? When price gets closer to 3100, will you move the stop again?

Just curious as to how you decide on a stop.

Brian, Basically a wrong idea to move stops. If one is trading strategically, stops being hit means strategy is void. And it is normal and consistent with profitable moves. Optimal stops is one improtant decisons that got to be taken. Every trader knows that stops could be triggered jsut below fridays lows and it is normal to give ROOM for volatility

Originally Posted by TAYTOKS

I hope this helps?

If probably will help now as I feel that price will move higher now, at least for some retracement. If is not a great idea to move your stop just as price is getting close to taking the stop out. Doing this is letting your emotion make the decision for you. Your stop should be placed where if taken out, your analysis was wrong and you are saved from further losses. At this time, it is better to reevaluate before entering another trade. Always know your exits before entering your trade. Move stops only in the direct of breakeven and hopefully towards profit.

Originally Posted by zion

Brian, Basically a wrong idea to move stops. If one is trading strategically, stops being hit means strategy is void. And it is normal and consistent with profitable moves. Optimal stops is one improtant decisons that got to be taken. Every trader knows that stops could be triggered jsut below fridays lows and it is normal to give ROOM for volatility

zion, I am aware of moving stops in the way that taytoks did was a poor decision. My question directed towards taytoks was in hopes of helping.

Judt keep an eye on the pair and wait for turn around.
Position Long @ 1.3168 Target 100 pips
Stops @ 1.3088

Originally Posted by brianborn1968

Couldn't sleep? Since you went to bed 2 minutes till midnight, it is now the following day for you.

Guessing is your strategy; does the truth come out now?

Its A-Yo's fault, he skyped me just as I was about to retire, and we spent two hours on the phone while we counted some chickens in

Ok ok ok, bed time, enough guessing for one day

When USD/JPY drops
EUR/USD notmally climbs.
Check your charts and confirm, so Euro should retrace faster.

.

I sit here sipping my cocoa and thought I may share a guessing thought...

there is a possibility that this is making an expanded flat wave 4 and hasnt even started wave 5 of 1 yet.

That will, upon the making of wave 4 c appear like a long would be wise when in fact it would not be.

Thought I should share this with You.

N'nite,

Colly
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Originally Posted by cvilalta

When USD/JPY drops
EUR/USD notmally climbs.
Check your charts and confirm, so Euro should retrace faster.

Not true. When there is risk aversion two drop heavy...
USD and YEN are risk and low yields. Anytime you notice the 2 dropping then DOW could drop over 200points. Two in upside direction is generally bullish for the overall market

Originally Posted by zion

Not true. When there is risk aversion two drop heavy...
USD and YEN are risk and low yields. Anytime you notice the 2 dropping then DOW could drop over 200points. Two in upside direction is generally bullish for the overall market

That only happens 20% of the time check the history on your charts

Originally Posted by Colly

.

I sit here sipping my cocoa and thought I may share a guessing thought...

there is a possibility that this is making an expanded flat wave 4 and hasnt even started wave 5 of 1 yet.

That will, upon the making of wave 4 c appear like a long would be wise when in fact it would not be.

Thought I should share this with You.

N'nite,

Colly
---

The move down cannot be wave 5 as shown by the following chart.

The vertical line is just AFTER what would be the top of wave 4, but it is NOT allowed to enter the price territory of wave 1, and it does.

This leads me to think and believe that this is part of a correction and not wave 5.

The 1m RSI's support this at the present moment too.


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Originally Posted by cvilalta

That only happens 20% of the time check the history on your charts

These pairs cannot be evaluated in that form. It is illogical in my opinion. One needs to know what pair is influencing the move by looking at each basket.
If YEN finds streghnt across the board, EUR/USD must fall. Indeed currencies are classified as:

1. Highyield..AUD, CAd, NZD
2. Mid to High EUR, GBP
3. Low yeild CHF, YEN and USD

(1)/(3) and (2)/(3) going up is risk "on" and conversely

(1)/(2) going up is modestly bullish and conversely

you can look at (1)/(1) or (2)/(2) or (3/3) to determine which is dominating.

From the above, If risk is on and USD/YEN is down then US$ is weak and influencing trade...wont see very strong rally. But if risk is on and USD/YEN is up then it means YEN weakness and a strong rally based on US fundamentals is in play

long to 1.3200 til1900 then short to 1.3050

Originally Posted by Bari Baig

Hi Paul,

haha, I was missing the sarcasm! Couldn't agree with you more on stops. Okay, as Colly pointed out the other day about SSI. Lots and lots of traders are eye'ing 1.325s and frankly I was too initially but now I think euro won't see past 1.325 altogether and may just start to gradually start slipping. What's your view on that, keeping in view that markets can be very irrational.

Cheers

No fire works yet from euro. As I wrote yesterday, too many people are expecting euro to push higher to 1.325, even I did so it might not go up altogether. That seems to be the case for now.