Thread: GBP and JPY Pairs H1 2013

There are a lot of forces at work in the EUR/USD rate, between the Fed buying treasuries which pushes everything up (except the dollar) and the ECB's continuing support of the euro and EU sovereign debt.

Originally Posted by Mary R

There are a lot of forces at work in the EUR/USD rate, between the Fed buying treasuries which pushes everything up (except the dollar) and the ECB's continuing support of the euro and EU sovereign debt.

Hi Mary,

It seems you're leaning towards the Euro bull quarters.

Originally Posted by Bari Baig

Hi Mary,

It seems you're leaning towards the Euro bull quarters.

No, Im short from 1.3456 this morning. Im going to try to stay short into next week's fed meeting. But Ive been burned the last few days because I didn't take profits when I had them I held on because I wanted the 1000 pip trade.
Its not going to be as easy to make money shorting the euro as it was last year. But I still think the next big move is under 1.30

Originally Posted by Mary R

No, Im short from 1.3456 this morning. Im going to try to stay short into next week's fed meeting. But Ive been burned the last few days because I didn't take profits when I had them I held on because I wanted the 1000 pip trade.
Its not going to be as easy to make money shorting the euro as it was last year. But I still think the next big move is under 1.30

Welcome to the club

I managed to save something on my short as I had a stop to bag some profit after being burnt twice. Anyway, I went short again today at 343s a little lower than before but I intend to hold this one for some time.

I think Euro could close around 3330 or just under and start scaring the late longs. And by Thursday if jobless claims get revised to 422k things should be a lot simpler.

Best of luck.

Originally Posted by Chrisfx92

As everyone knows, I have been bullish mainly because of the Fundamentals, and now I see the 10-day and 30-day SMAs moving up in tandem which is usually a very bullish signal, especially as the RSI and MACD are also strong.

In the past year each turn in the 10-day and 30-day SMAs has preceded a strong move in the new direction.

I believe we are just witnessing a conglomeration of fundamentals and technicals that should boost the Euro by another 500 bips short term and up to 2000 bips intermediate term.

I would be very surprised, in fact shocked, if the Dollar strengthens for any reason other than a nuclear attack by North Korea on Seoul.

My head told me to go long 100 % at 1.3000, but my head told me to risk only 40 %, so I'm observing strict Money Management, which I hope you all do as well. As they say, Bulls and Bears make money, Pigs get killed.

Hi chris.. I had a blast today and I have beaten my all time record in making pips today..most of my longs did come out rt around the high though bit disappointed cuz i had shorts waiting b.w 3481-99 to end the day. had a very good run on gu as well on the breakout again almost to the high..
Going forward i'm leaving long entries I'm spotting around 3330.. This needs to hold and we need to head above 3500, if not then I expect a major failure of 1.34 lvl.. we simply are not able to keep a footing on it and i was hoping today we did...
anyways my last attempt to see a possible close higher to 3450 tomoro else i will be seriously considering shorting eu across the board..
One thing i have learned good and is that mkt doesn't take rejection happily..
Indeed if we can close higher to 3470, we can surely see it pop esp to my last hurdle of 3636.. then sky is the limit......
I'm still following the charts I did on weekend..... and so far so good..
Calling it a nite.......
Ayoo........ that was a nice ride u had to the south..... Keep it up..

GL .......

Any thoughts as to whether this is wave 4 finishing up or if this is the correction and we move on down from here

longer term bias is still bearish EUR/USD

Trade on EUR/USD range. Sell on high, buy on low.

Originally Posted by Bari Baig

Hi Chris,

10 and 30 day smas are very short term. For major turn about my old school seniors always looked at 100 and over day smas, as you're taking into account "intermediate" term. Short term is not 10 to 30 days such a time frame is considered to be immediate short term and proper short term can span from several months to over 2 years

I believe we have some confusion over time frame here. Nevertheless, I'd be very much interested in knowing which fundamental change are you talking about in Europe which can only be rivaled by a Nuke attack by Pyongyang on its counterpart?

I see things in black and white and when it comes to Europe I have only observed one thing that Politicians are much more active, much more vocal than they were before. Euro's fuel for now is "rumor mill" once the catalyst is taken out of the picture this bull run comes to an end.

My opinion, this rumor mill is about to run ground very soon for about a month.

Cheers

well said bari. fully agree and i expect the market to show us is in the next couple days that being said i still think we will get to 13560 area before the bears start taking over.

Originally Posted by Bari Baig

Hi Chris,

10 and 30 day smas are very short term. For major turn about my old school seniors always looked at 100 and over day smas, as you're taking into account "intermediate" term. Short term is not 10 to 30 days such a time frame is considered to be immediate short term and proper short term can span from several months to over 2 years

I believe we have some confusion over time frame here. Nevertheless, I'd be very much interested in knowing which fundamental change are you talking about in Europe which can only be rivaled by a Nuke attack by Pyongyang on its counterpart?

I see things in black and white and when it comes to Europe I have only observed one thing that Politicians are much more active, much more vocal than they were before. Euro's fuel for now is "rumor mill" once the catalyst is taken out of the picture this bull run comes to an end.

My opinion, this rumor mill is about to run ground very soon for about a month.

Cheers

Hi there Bari,

I understand that many here are somewhat dissatisfied with most of the fundamental reasons behind this move. Personally speaking, I like your political stand point well enough to call it reason #1... BUT, that same reason applies to the rest of the world equally.

I know the USD is so poor that it can no longer afford to pay attention, let alone the interest rates on the money it borrows simply to exist. Now take 33 million people times the simple fact above, what do ya get?

All you have on the other side of the equals sign is a lot bad attitudes with ever diminishing hope/faith and/or belief in our current way of life.

So yeah, it's politics all the way!

Anyway, thought I'd show a pretty simple technical reason here as nobody seemed to notice this yet. The charts below are self-explanatory.

Happy Trading,

t3t4

Originally Posted by martyman13

Wow, target for w5 hit while I was making this chart! Let's see what happens now...


Waiting for a correction to 1.3300-1.3360 area.

Nice Call MM

I had the same as You and Stan by the looks of things and took the false call for about 20 pips before taking it again at 1.3432

Am expecting a deeper drop yet however.

Originally Posted by nopainnogain

vvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvv

"Colly C"

It just happened toland about there but I may have a target figure for it soon

Originally Posted by lmrtrader

longer term bias is still bearish EUR/USD

Interesting count Imrtrader.

Doesn't allow for much in the shorter term however.

Do You have a lower TF count ?


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


Here's where I am:

1.3436 short, no SL

anticipating a further drop to circa 1.31~1.32 but shall review processtically.

I dont know thats even a word but came to mind as I type

or... as part of an ongoing process

Lol


Attaching 1m and 1h charts


,

Hello everybody
thats my first EW chart ever, can sombody tell me what is right and what is wrong with it.
thanks a lot
michael

,

Incidentally..

Concerning my count as per the chart below... it now is my Alt 1 count but is likely to fit within the context of the equation anyway.

The primary count I affectionately refer to as my Sacred Count and cannot share that here.

Once again, short term it shouldnt make alot of difference to the suggestion implied.

Best,

Colly
---

Originally Posted by michaelf

Hello everybody
thats my first EW chart ever, can sombody tell me what is right and what is wrong with it.
thanks a lot
michael

Hi Michael,

There is no right or wrong.

It is either valid or invalid and appears quite valid to me.

Having said that the lines suggest that wave 1 started late somehow

It is said that when the US sneezes Europe catches a cold well this time europe caught pneumonia. i seen this chart on another page and it shows a very big difference between the us debt and Europe's theirs a huge difference. World Debt Clocks

the US is in better shape than the strongest euro member Germany who is expected to pull the weight in the euro zone. so i dont see the fundamentals that are changing the direction of the euro just "Talk" here.

I also think the gbp is grossly overvalued here.

all being said the market can be irrational longer they anyone can be solvent so play what the markets throw at us. but my view is bullish on a daily/4hrly time frame and BEARISH on a weekly/monthly.

the us dollar looks like 1 push down away from bottoming. options expiration is this week friday which is where i think it will be bottom before.