Thread: GBP and JPY Pairs H1 2013

Could someone explain what it means to be an official 'friend' as opposed to simply sending someone a p.m. and communicating that way? I'm an IT Dynosaurus and relatively new to Blogs.

What are the relative advantages/disadvantages of accepting someone's request to be a friend?

Saturday morning and Ilya Spivak says:
My Picks: Stay Short EURUSD
Expertise: Global Macro
Average Time Frame of Trades: 1 week - 6 months

I initially sold EURUSD at 1.3315. Prices are testing through my stop-loss level for the third consecutive day, but a Doji candlestick on the bar preceding the current one hints at indecision, suggesting the range top in place since November 2010 may yet hold. As such, I will opt to wait for a confirmed daily close above 1.3499 per my initial entry conditions before exiting the trade. My target remains 1.2867 in the event the bulls do fail and downward momentum resumes anew.

Just as well I did not follow the advice. I know that 'one day' the US$ will rise, yes, may be, but now?. I doubt it.

It would be more appropriate to guess when, rather that encourage shorting this pair when all UE cooks are gathered together preparing a menu full of optimism, which most will buy, until it proves wrong.

Originally Posted by stryker

Not too vividly do plotting on USD, but the following is what i see.
Looks bearish after a well consolidated region breaking to the south side..
I'm sure would like to hear comments on the USD as this well as may depict the directional course on euro in coming days..
Are you traders long / short the USD index.. I like to hear your views..

GL..

if that chart is correct stryker then the the eur is gonna explode at some point further up especialy if the min tgt is reached south on usdx........wow nice chart and good idea of a possiility or it will stop and reverse and hold...Monday wil be a carefull day me thinks as it could go either way for this pair now... defo must see a corrective move 1st i would have thought before move back up...we will see....may try and hold a posi fr more than 50 pips next wekk ...lol

Originally Posted by cw1

if that chart is correct stryker then the the eur is gonna explode at some point further up especialy if the min tgt is reached south on usdx........wow nice chart and good idea of a possiility or it will stop and reverse and hold...Monday wil be a carefull day me thinks as it could go either way for this pair now... defo must see a corrective move 1st i would have thought before move back up...we will see....may try and hold a posi fr more than 50 pips next wekk ...lol

lol... as said im not too haeavily involved on the USD index and for that matter dont know how it behaves on the chart pattern with TL.. Unless some solid fundamentals favoring the USD, it should drop some ...

GL..

Indicators that tend to work are those that are unchanged in different timeframes and are not subjective.

Change with timeframe: MAs, Oscillators, Ichimotu, MACDs..
Subjective (high/low) :Finbonacci, trendlines, Pivots

Indicators can be useful for very short term scalping to play on volatility.

Large long term traders cause trend change. They are mostly spot on on the bottom/top. Retail traders mostly wrong at the turns. Retail traders provide liquidity required to drive move from one end to the other. Retail traders mostly right to drive a trend.
Since retail traders are mostly right driving a trend, why is it then that 95% lose their money? Yes because most money is made at the turning point and b4 a trend is established, it may have been too late. If the trend is long one..you will be lucky and make a decent profit. If it a short one, chances are that you buy/sell top/bottom.
Since market ranges 80% of the time and trends 20%...those are the reasons we lose money.
But what do brokers say...the trend is your friend? Yes it is but I need to join it as early as possible.
The difference between savvy pros and the rest of us.

INDICATORS THAT CHANGES WITH TIMEFRAME OR SUBJECTIVE HAVE LOW CHANCE OF SPOTTING TURNING POINTS

Zion,

What you've just described is itself Subjective and can not be classified as a -------- evidence at all.

I wrote 3 detailed replies to your previous post regarding your stand about Indicators but never got a reply from you in return.

I can also write in details and back my point with pure numbers / statistics to show you what works and what doesnt but I'm afraid I wouldnt do that if that post too is going to go without being discussed in return.

Thanks for your input by the way.
Cheers.

Originally Posted by zion

Indicators that tend to work are those that are unchanged in different timeframes and are not subjective.

Change with timeframe: MAs, Oscillators, Ichimotu, MACDs..
Subjective (high/low) :Finbonacci, trendlines, Pivots

Indicators can be useful for very short term scalping to play on volatility.

Large long term traders cause trend change. They are mostly spot on on the bottom/top. Retail traders mostly wrong at the turns. Retail traders provide liquidity required to drive move from one end to the other. Retail traders mostly right to drive a trend.
Since retail traders are mostly right driving a trend, why is it then that 95% lose their money? Yes because most money is made at the turning point and b4 a trend is established, it may have been too late. If the trend is long one..you will be lucky and make a decent profit. If it a short one, chances are that you buy/sell top/bottom.
Since market ranges 80% of the time and trends 20%...those are the reasons we lose money.
But what do brokers say...the trend is your friend? Yes it is but I need to join it as early as possible.
The difference between savvy pros and the rest of us.

INDICATORS THAT CHANGES WITH TIMEFRAME OR SUBJECTIVE HAVE LOW CHANCE OF SPOTTING TURNING POINTS

Originally Posted by asherewt

Zion,

What you've just described is itself Subjective and can not be classified as a -------- evidence at all.

I wrote 3 detailed replies to your previous post regarding your stand about Indicators but never got a reply from you in return.

I can also write in details and back my point with pure numbers / statistics to show you what works and what doesnt but I'm afraid I wouldnt do that if that post too is going to go without being discussed in return.

Thanks for your input by the way.
Cheers.

Hi Asher, My position may be classified as generalization. No doubt some may be working and also depending on the user and the market. I am in no way dismissing them.
They are useful in guiding trades on entries and profit taking in an established moves. My position is that b/cos they watch mostly rear-view mirror..they do a poor job capturing the essential turning points

Sorry Sir,

but I'm again able to spot another Generalization filled with Assumptions here as highlighted in your post.

And by the way, who said identifying the so-called Essential Turning Points are the main drivers of Profit Making Business ? it rather depends on individual's system and objectives. Trend Following for example waits for a long time in order to acquire Confirmation and once confirmed it enters into an established trend. Does that make it Non-Profitable ?

I'm sorry for coming from the opposite side but I'm feeling little uncomfortable with this generalization and under estimating of things.

In my opinion, its nothing to do what you do or what you use ... its all about how you use it, its all in our HEAD if that is not trained properly then even the most recognized system cant help you making (and most importantly keeping) profits.

Originally Posted by zion

Hi Asher, My position may be classified as generalization. No doubt some may be working and also depending on the user and the market. I am in no way dismissing them.
They are useful in guiding trades on entries and profit taking in an established moves. My position is that b/cos they watch mostly rear-view mirror..they do a poor job capturing the essential turning points

1. Indicators performance is same in longer term chart or short term. It is misleading to think of better performance in longer term!

2. Many charts present data for US session only and others present 24hrs...making application of these indicators mathematical outcome ambiguous.

3. They can be useful in to guide trades like trailing stops and/or entry or exit within a move

I wonder how would you respond if I present you a series of charts covering different timeframes (you choose) of the same Pair by using same Indicator but still showing you the same picture ... which means not changing its bias while applied on a different timeframe

Originally Posted by zion

INDICATORS THAT CHANGES WITH TIMEFRAME OR SUBJECTIVE HAVE LOW CHANCE OF SPOTTING TURNING POINTS

Originally Posted by asherewt

Sorry Sir,

but I'm again able to spot another Generalization filled with Assumptions here as highlighted in your post.

And by the way, who said identifying the so-called Essential Turning Points are the main drivers of Profit Making Business ? it rather depends on individual's system and objectives. Trend Following for example waits for a long time in order to acquire Confirmation and once confirmed it enters into an established trend. Does that make it Non-Profitable ?

I'm sorry for coming from the opposite side but I'm feeling little uncomfortable with this generalization and under estimating of things.

In my opinion, its nothing to do what you do or what you use ... its all about how you use it, its all in our HEAD if that is not trained properly then even the most recognized system cant help you making (and most importantly keeping) profits.

Asher, My position is simply my bird eye view and based on my own experience. I have walked thru most in the last several years and I am in better position ( for myself) to see what have made money for me consistently and what hasnt. Those that I follow also apply this. They called Gold/silver turning point spot on from bottom to up and now top. Many are now calling for Gold/silver correction while we went short silver 31$ after upmove from 17$. The man normally says..turning points do not need confirmation.it either fails or works..if it it fails you get off on time with small loss. He says that if you waited for confirmation, you end up entring in the middle of no where and retest action or failure could expose the trader

Originally Posted by asherewt

I wonder how would you respond if I present you a series of charts covering different timeframes (you choose) of the same Pair by using same Indicator but still showing you the same picture ... which means not changing its bias while applied on a different timeframe

Asher, any indicator that remain the same on different timeframes is very reliable and should work..that is what I mean!

Exactly right, thats what I suspected and was suggesting as well that its a view purely based on your personal obeservations. Hence can not be described as an authentic (and backed up with proper Stats) proof.

I've no problem with expressing personal observations, we all have those views. However they do not endorse or reject the validity of certain things.

Thanks, it was a nice discussion for the weekend.
Cheers.

Originally Posted by zion

Asher, My position is simply my bird eye view and based on my own experience. I have walked thru most in the last several years and I am in better position ( for myself) to see what have made money for me consistently and what hasnt. Those that I follow also apply this. They called Gold/silver turning point spot on from bottom to up and now top. Many are now calling for Gold/silver correction while we went short silver 31$ after upmove from 17$. The man normally says..turning points do not need confirmation.it either fails or works..if it it fails you get off on time with small loss. He says that if you waited for confirmation, you end up entring in the middle of no where and retest action or failure could expose the trader

OK, thanks for agreeing. Please take MA, Ichimoku (its not Ichimotu) and MACD out of your list of indicators that change when applied to a different timeframe.

Originally Posted by zion

Asher, any indicator that remain the same on different timeframes is very reliable and should work..that is what I mean!

OK, thanks for agreeing. Please take MA, Ichimoku (its not Ichimotu) and MACD out of your list of indicators that change when applied to a different timeframe.[/QUOTE]

They do change with same parameters applied on different timeframes ! Unless you change the parameters which to me does not show anything. 20MA on 1hr is same as 200MA on 10minutes chart for instance.

I give up ...

have a nice weekend Zion.

Originally Posted by zion

OK, thanks for agreeing. Please take MA, Ichimoku (its not Ichimotu) and MACD out of your list of indicators that change when applied to a different timeframe.

They do change with same parameters applied on different timeframes ! Unless you change the parameters which to me does not show anything. 20MA on 1hr is same as 200MA on 10minutes chart for instance.[/QUOTE]