| || |
03-18-2011, 11:25 PM #57856
It's no doubt that we will see a change in direction, but the "when" part is hardest to figure. Everyone is trying to figure out the top....hopefully I know when I see it.
03-19-2011, 12:11 AM #57857
It seems that way perhaps, but not everyone is looking for a top. I merely seek a target despite where I think the EURO will ultimately end.
Originally Posted by mechtech
03-19-2011, 01:00 AM #57858
any reason why are u taking hedge rather than taking profits?
03-19-2011, 02:36 AM #57859
Simple, I feel the move is perhaps a bit exaggerated ( with Japan and Yen intervention and so on; perhaps rate hikes) but on technical aspect must maintain longs as preferred positions. but possible drop more likely and trying to hedge shorts from every possible good turning point i can think off. I'm simply trailing the stop on longs and if they are tripped then it means i have a short to carry on with.. With 4155 failing next move up was expected around 4187 for Frday came short but them trendlines are still valid...
Originally Posted by pivot_call
Still think we now should be hitting around 4190ish then some retrace..
8 hrs and extended projections comes to around 43XX...
Patience is virtue. The sooner we learn this all, sooner we can start walking to the bank. Good Luck to all of us
The trick is to wait the price meet ur limits, instead of one jumping in.. however scalps is a totally different scenario and is not everyone's cup of tea
Disclaimer: I'm not at all suggesting trades when by either posting the graphs, or my entries. You can view it, but in the end you have to use your own logic and approach, as there is no certainty about this uncertain market...
03-19-2011, 05:41 AM #57860
Back to Boasting
I see many shorters getting burnt this Friday again. I just made 137.2 pips going long on Friday, again, and I think I've gotten out too early at 4132, though I've hold for 14 long hours. Want to post before it happened, but, this forum is gettting less and less stable, and now, I'm going to be accused of telling about how much I made only after the facts. No matter what others are doing, that's just not my style.
For the first and the last time, I'll show my live-trade chart with closed position, and it's not micro or demo account... probably this is the only time I'll do that.
Whether you learn from the chart my entry, or my exit, they'll do you good. And if nothing but that I'm just boasting, then probably the profitable ones can boast theirs in the forum as well, for me and others to learn their entries and exits.
Friday is usually a mover. Remember...
(To T3T4: I'm especially interested in your 4 hours long trade on Friday. Mind sharing?)
A beautiful mind is much more important than a fat pocket.
03-19-2011, 12:31 PM #57861
Cool, so you're rich now, you can buy the whole group a round of coffee, or you can just buy me a new pair of sweat pants if you like... I'm not sure what time frame your chart is showing and I'm probably missing somewhere the great teachings of said chart, but I'd say I went long right about where you closed your position. I would show you, but I can't. Marketscope does not save my trading history once the program is closed past 5 or 6pm my time.
But I grabbed some 20 + pips by the time I closed the trade. Is that what you wanted to know?
03-19-2011, 12:43 PM #57862
03-19-2011, 03:12 PM #57863
You don't have to show me the chart. I believe you, and I understand your entry and exit already. Since it's near to 4250, consider yourself a winner for getting it right. Just wanted to know if your convictions to 4250 is strong enough for you to trade on it. No hard feelings
Originally Posted by t3t4
Thank you! I may seems like a shorter shouting out shorts all the time, but deep down, you'll find "Trend is your friend" embedded somewhere in me, influencing my views and trades all the time!
Originally Posted by bill2759
After JimboFX mentioned VSA (Volume Spread Analysis) in one of his previous posts, I've done some internet research on that subject and realize that his posts and views are strongly based on that subject, so I suggest you can read it up to fully appreciate his postings. That particular post is related to a condition known as "Lack of Demand"...
And I've tested the SSI and lost quite a lot of pips during the previous high of 42+, when it's constantly showing net short, so don't try...
Your chart with entries and exits I still remember, the one which you traded the range? I like it!
A beautiful mind is much more important than a fat pocket.
03-19-2011, 04:02 PM #57864
O.K. let's see. When Libya started many sold dollars assuming the US would get into another military action. Now that Europe has taken the lead, France planes bombing as I write. So will anyone sell Euros? I doubt it, everyone blinded by a 25 bp hike possibility. Well, so it goes.
03-19-2011, 09:12 PM #57865
Volume Spread Analysis is an interesting technique that can be extremely effective and also get your butt chewed when you mention it in any Forex forum.
I utilize it myself with market profile. There is no holy grail but the combination works very well for managing risk.
I agree with you Jimbo, the effort does not warrant the result. There are some pretty fat gaps in distribution ("unfinished business") that may need to be filled below where we're at now. Plus, 1.4215 (last November) represented a HUGE imbalance between supply and demand. As far as I'm concerned, losing money is the cost of doing business so, if we make it above 1.42, I'll take some calculated risks shorting this area.
The fundamental climate can't be ignored either. But in my eyes, it isn't what the news says, it's how the market reacts to it.
Last edited by Bilstein; 03-20-2011 at 12:34 AM.
03-20-2011, 05:48 AM #57866
Shorting the EUR/USD - Live Trades
Hi folks, I'm quite new here so I thought I would try and contribute to this forum by presenting my current actual live trades in the following 15 min chart on the EUR/USD.
I am essentially bearish on the EUR and bullish the USD for several reasons, which I will explain shortly. However, as you can see I entered 4 short positions on Friday by averaging up. I know I entered the market a bit too soon, but this is the way I tend to trade. I usually sell short into the rise when bearish, although I do confess that I wasn't expecting it to rise as much as it did on Friday. I also appreciate that it could go a bit higher yet.
By the way this is a live account using my own cash. I hope to keep you up to date with the progress of my trades here. Averaging out, I am currently negative 36.5 pips on the 4 positions (but hopefully that will improve . I have also placed an additional short order just above where we are now at 1.4207. The blue dotted line is my average position (currently 1.4120) and the green lines below are short term profit targets for the 3 lower positions. I will hold on to the top position(s) and then set a much lower target later. I might also lower the targets for the lower positions later, depending on how I feel things are progressing. But for now I would be happy enough to close them out with 100 pips or so each.
The reasons for my bearish stance are as follows:
1) Sentiment towards the USD are at extreme levels, with the percentage of bulls having fallen recently to around 5%. This usually preludes a significant turn. Across the board the USD has essentially been written off, which suggests quite strongly to me that the USD is overdue for a substantive rally.
2) Technically, if you examine a daily or weekly chart, we can see that a potential 'Double Top' is forming with the Nov 4th high of 1.4282. It may fall short, reach it or indeed surpass it, but either way, the pattern should turn out roughly as a double top.
3) Also, there is an inter market non-confirmation in that whereas the USD has just edged beneath the Nov 4th low, the Euro has not pushed above its high. Historically, these non-confirmations have co-incided with other major turning points such as in 2008 and March 2009.
4) Although I normally take little notice of external fundamentals, it may be unwise to ignore them completely. Thus, I think that the expected interest rate rise next month has already been largely priced into the market. It's likely that the rise will cause a spike when the rate rise actually happens, but the market will fall back in line fairly soon afterwards.
I could go on and on here, but I just wanted to give you my clear reasons for going short in the EUR/USD. I hope some of you at least can glean some insight into how a fellow trader thinks and works the market.
All the best, and I will keep you posted.
Last edited by Prophet; 03-20-2011 at 05:56 AM.
03-20-2011, 10:09 AM #57867
I am very new to FX trading and I am still in the learning part of demo trading. I do see a double top with a Euro bear position.
03-20-2011, 03:19 PM #57868
In looking at the inflation picture in Europe, I wanted to get a sense of where the inflation is and how world events will make them better or worse. By reviewing the comments something hit me, the ECB has not said inflation is rising. They stated they "expect" inflation to rise. Also, they are saying too much liquidity exist in the system. The lack of liquidity is exactly one of the biggest issues in the 2008 financial crisis. This rate hike still makes little sense in the scheme of things. It certainly does not make sense the Euro would climb to the current levels and continue infinitum on a single hike issue on inflation expectations. These guys make Bernanke look reasonable and that is really hard to do.
03-20-2011, 03:49 PM #57869
03-20-2011, 03:56 PM #57870
as for the liquidity issue: ever since end of december they have pumped about 200 billion euros into the system every single week on short term 1 week loans. i stopped posting about it after the 6th week but I've been checking on it every week to see if they stop which they havent.
Originally Posted by stkelrey
that to me says a theirs a huge problem underneath their banking systems.
Pippin ain't easy