there hasnt been any thing positive and now were going into the close for the weekend and Im sure were gonna see some of the 'softcore' bulls closing their positions so they could enjoy the weekend...
In terms of price action I see that every attempt to rise have been met with selling pressure. And I suspect those same ppl who are selling are creating support around 1.4150 so there is no panic sell off. To me that's clearly distribution and only matter of time before they pull off that support. Of course I could be wrong but if they stop supporting the price then you know what's going to happen.
They? Technically speaking, all I see is a wedge from weekly charts on down. All I can see is a breakout coming soon. Fundamentally however, I'm not paying any attention till late summer. I know how to read a scope, but do I know how to read a chart that looks like a scope pattern? If there are any automotive guys out there, I'm waiting on the next ignition event if you know what I mean. How about HAM radio guys? The next broadcast? 1.7500 and that's what I'm seeing. Hope for the bears sake I'm wrong....
They? Technically speaking, all I see is a wedge from weekly charts on down. All I can see is a breakout coming soon. Fundamentally however, I'm not paying any attention till late summer. I know how to read a scope, but do I know how to read a chart that looks like a scope pattern? If there are any automotive guys out there, I'm waiting on the next ignition event if you know what I mean. How about HAM radio guys? The next broadcast? 1.7500 and that's what I'm seeing. Hope for the bears sake I'm wrong....
Happy Trading,
t3t4
t3t4,
If you spent more time reading the forum you'll know that I've been bullish EUR long term but that's not to say the price will move up right away. There will be ups and downs and if I see a 1000pips down move by all means I'll take it. I don't care about what fundamentals are saying all I care is the charts and the PA. That's what I understand and that's what I go by.
Now to answer your question as which are "they" I was refering - they are the proffessional traders or group of traders like big banks or hedge funds ect. And because they operate with huge amounts of money they can manupulate the market the way they want it. Of course they tend to confuse as much as possible the rest of the market but their activity is on the charts and there is a way to read that. I'm not doing too deep into that but if you want you can google "VSA" to find out more.
And to finish here is a chart I posted a month or two ago. It still valid and as you can see I'm expecting the price to take that 1.6 high. BUT because the move since the begining of the year is in three waves in EW terms that's suggesting that we only saw the first leg in ED in blue wave (C) of [Y]. And since 1.49 high we only have seen two waves so far. It's necessary to have one more wave down to complete wave II of that ED. And that wave has to go bellow 1.3850.
Hope that makes the bigger picture a bit more clear
It seems that were all bulls and bears which absolutely correct - its just different time frames and the discipline to switch whenever conditions call for a change and not be stubborn and get burnt...
to narrow it down a bit what do you guys think it'll do NEXT session..? I think DOWN....so until next session im a bear...have a great weekend everyone....!
PS..anyone know of a shop where I could score me some pips on the weekend.... cheers to all those coming down after a hectic week!!!
If you spent more time reading the forum you'll know that I've been bullish EUR long term but that's not to say the price will move up right away. There will be ups and downs and if I see a 1000pips down move by all means I'll take it. I don't care about what fundamentals are saying all I care is the charts and the PA. That's what I understand and that's what I go by.
Now to answer your question as which are "they" I was refering - they are the proffessional traders or group of traders like big banks or hedge funds ect. And because they operate with huge amounts of money they can manupulate the market the way they want it. Of course they tend to confuse as much as possible the rest of the market but their activity is on the charts and there is a way to read that. I'm not doing too deep into that but if you want you can google "VSA" to find out more.
And to finish here is a chart I posted a month or two ago. It still valid and as you can see I'm expecting the price to take that 1.6 high. BUT because the move since the begining of the year is in three waves in EW terms that's suggesting that we only saw the first leg in ED in blue wave (C) of [Y]. And since 1.49 high we only have seen two waves so far. It's necessary to have one more wave down to complete wave II of that ED. And that wave has to go bellow 1.3850.
Hope that makes the bigger picture a bit more clear
Hey, thanks for the explanation. Sorry I'm not around as much, but I'm sure some are relieved about that... You are correct, I have not done any back reading, just don't care to yet. I hope you understand. I'll get there eventually, but not anytime soon.
Alright, so purely technically speaking, I agree with your assessment but I do have one point in conflict. I think the up-trend is now, currently under way. I strongly doubt we will breach 1.4000 but I may be wrong. Most seem to think from what I hear that is, 1.3800 is on it's way. My brother in-law which is perhaps a better trader then I, also said to me 1.3800, but he's not a FOREX trader, although he does trade currency but in a very different way. Anyway, he tells me this that and the other about Greece and the EURO, all I do is block it out as best I can.
Firstly, I'm not willing to pay attention right now to fundamentals. Secondly, I'm on summer break. So you can imagine some of these conversations I'm sure. But he keeps preaching about volume and I swear I'll kick him dead square in the "@#$%" if he brings it up again. Irreverent, the freekin chart is your volume indicator!
Anyway, I'm getting side tracked here. The point is: I don't think we'll breach 1.4000. There is too much bad data from the U.S. now throughout the rest of the summer. I am curious to see however. But thanks for the VSA advice, I didn't know otherwise.
Also, another update on the MA_ADVISOR:
So this whole week I broke even, a little ahead but not by my definition.
If you spent more time reading the forum you'll know that I've been bullish EUR long term but that's not to say the price will move up right away. There will be ups and downs and if I see a 1000pips down move by all means I'll take it. I don't care about what fundamentals are saying all I care is the charts and the PA. That's what I understand and that's what I go by.
Now to answer your question as which are "they" I was refering - they are the proffessional traders or group of traders like big banks or hedge funds ect. And because they operate with huge amounts of money they can manupulate the market the way they want it. Of course they tend to confuse as much as possible the rest of the market but their activity is on the charts and there is a way to read that. I'm not doing too deep into that but if you want you can google "VSA" to find out more.
And to finish here is a chart I posted a month or two ago. It still valid and as you can see I'm expecting the price to take that 1.6 high. BUT because the move since the begining of the year is in three waves in EW terms that's suggesting that we only saw the first leg in ED in blue wave (C) of [Y]. And since 1.49 high we only have seen two waves so far. It's necessary to have one more wave down to complete wave II of that ED. And that wave has to go bellow 1.3850.
Hope that makes the bigger picture a bit more clear
You chart labelling is no longer valid. This wave up cannot be a 3, since (A) is broken. Can still consider wave 3 with target 1.6+, if this 300 pips downmove can be classified as a smaller timeframe count, but, but, I see lower high on your weekly chart, so technically speaking, visually speaking, ignoring all the labellings, is expecting a prolonged, painful period of consolidation down for the next week, which should be a scalper's paradise!
A beautiful mind is much more important than a fat pocket.
Nigel Farage Buries Bankrupt Currency in Brussels (is a British politician and is the Leader of the UK Independence Party and Member of European Parliament)
You chart labelling is no longer valid. This wave up cannot be a 3, since (A) is broken. Can still consider wave 3 with target 1.6+, if this 300 pips downmove can be classified as a smaller timeframe count, but, but, I see lower high on your weekly chart, so technically speaking, visually speaking, ignoring all the labellings, is expecting a prolonged, painful period of consolidation down for the next week, which should be a scalper's paradise!
Paul,
I agree on the consolidation to down move over the next few weeks. In fact that's my short term view I've been calling for the past few weeks that EUR has to trade bellow 1.3850 in order to complete the wave structure.
Now into the EW. I don't know what your understanding of that theory is but I can assure you the count I presented is pretty much still valid. I'm having hard time understanding what you are trying to say by "this wave up can't be a 3 since (A) is broken". I've made an updated chart for you to see and maybe that will make things more clear. I have reasons to believe that since 2010 low EUR/USD is in bigger wave [Y]. That wave [Y] has to be a three wave move - hence wave (A)-(B)-(C). Waves (A) and (B) are compete and now we are in wave (C). And because wave (C) is in three waves so far the only possibility for the price to advance is an Ending Diagonal with 3-3-3-3-3 internal structure. Wave I is complete and now working on II with the last leg of that wave to be completed soon.
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Originally Posted by Choucri
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