Thread: GBP and JPY Pairs H1 2013

See charts
eu defo wants the gap to be closed but needs that final push
Gold at resistive levels for short opportunity
if stocks and eu surge up to close gap im expecting more gold losses
lower highs on gold is a start

eu look for breakouts above and below

Wow, I was out all day and just came back to see my heavy long I've been carrying for 2 weeks got filled in at 1.219 for a good profit. Does anybody know, what happened?

Originally Posted by banison

Wow, I was out all day and just came back to see my heavy long I've been carrying for 2 weeks got filled in at 1.219 for a good profit. Does anybody know, what happened?

talk of moving the peg to 125

Originally Posted by MysticMegatron

talk of moving the peg to 125

Cool. Thank you.

Originally Posted by Mary R

I was going over some pros and cons for QE3 on Wednesday and came up with this list. If anyone else has anything to add I would be interested in hearing it

PRO: Desperate times call for desperate measures. Federal Reserve needs to do everything and anything they can to try to create an environment conducive to job creation. The economy needs more fiscal stimulus but if the federal government is paralyzed with division then the Fed has to do more

CON: We tried that twice and it didn't work. Or did it? Approximately 2 million jobs have been
created in the US since the first round of quantitative easing but it is not possible to prove if
this was a direct result of Fed action.


CON:Inflation is rising and it is no joke. The latest core inflation report showed that inflation
was the highest since 2008 at 3.8%. Regardless of whether or not quantitative easing contributed to rising inflation, the Fed has to pay attention to price stability as part of their mandate.

CON: Quantitative easing is not without risk.They do have other options, such as reducing
interest on the reserves banks park with the Federal Reserve to zero.


CON: The most important in my opinion.
The Fed might want to save its most potent tools for the real emergency crisis pending in the
EU.They might want to wait until October or November, in case bank lending freezes up and the
capital markets collapse if Greece defaults. The only way to make this problem go away would
probably be for the Europeans to double or triple the size of the EFSF, and Chancellor Merkel has clearly indicated that is not going to happen. No one really knows how the financial markets will react in such a scenario but the central banks will want to be prepared for the worst case, and have some ammunition left.

Bernanke seems to be an appeaser and consensus seeker. Expanding the size of the Fed balance sheet (QE3) at this point would provoke criticism from many corners including some FOMC members. Plus as you explained, they need to keep that bullet for later.

On the other hand, OT would be a form of monetary easing without expanding the Fed balance sheet, OT has been test-floated, is mostly baked in already and seems to be the most likely outcome. Plus it provides a buyer for the Treasury's long bond auctions... OT would constitute increased debt monetization, since discounting long-dated treasuries is significantly more costly than discounting short-dated treasuries.

Committing to keep the reserve rate at 0.25% for two years already constituted significant monetary easing. If the Fed now lowers the rate to 0%, as is apparently being considered, depositors will move out $1.7 trillion of funds, which some say is what they want to happen, but I think that will boost inflation, because an increase in money velocity in combination with the very high M2 would be very inflationary. And if they do that suddenly, IMO it will break the dollar and quickly send gold up to new record highs.

IMHO the best thing for the FOMC to do might be nothing, and emphasize that the appropriate policy response is fiscal and structural, not monetary. If markets fall another 20%, so be it, maybe then the politicians will get it that they need to compromise and act.

Originally Posted by Alejandro Zambrano

You have quite many lines. What does you chart predict ?

I find the fibs are particularly useful ahead of things like the fed meeting when I expect relatively constrained movement and sideways markets, other than that it gives a road map for scalping if you look at it on a 1m chart. points where fibs and trendlines meet are sometimes good points for picking larger turning points or extremes of price, i.e. ~1400 today. also helps me set stop-losses. I guess i just want to have as many different viewpoints on the screen as i can in order to try and explain every turning point, i also have as many charts on as possible at once, inc. equity, oil, gold etc.

try and use in conjunction with EW on a short time scale where possible but having a tough time so far this week as the structure is quite tricky, although seemingly in a triangle. maybe cos I killed too many braincells this weekend

Originally Posted by t3t4

I tried to break this all down just a few short weeks ago, but everyone wanted the end result it seemed and where unwilling to go through the math. --snip-- Like it or not, I've been telling you the truth.

Unless you don't want to go on the record beforehand in case you aren't correct, maybe you can share and enlighten us with your "truth"?

7 times it has bounced off 733
I have benn long on every single bounce on this one and had to close at just below 733
It wants the gap and the market wants the gap closed
a close above 733 and longs it is.
buy the dip on higher lows

The euribor and eonia rates are still rising despite last week's swap lines intervention. So the banks and the financial markets are pretty skeptical of the swap lines as a solution for the problem
Current Euribor rates - daily

Originally Posted by MysticMegatron

I find the fibs are particularly useful ahead of things like the fed meeting when I expect relatively constrained movement and sideways markets, other than that it gives a road map for scalping if you look at it on a 1m chart. points where fibs and trendlines meet are sometimes good points for picking larger turning points or extremes of price, i.e. ~1400 today. also helps me set stop-losses. I guess i just want to have as many different viewpoints on the screen as i can in order to try and explain every turning point, i also have as many charts on as possible at once, inc. equity, oil, gold etc.

try and use in conjunction with EW on a short time scale where possible but having a tough time so far this week as the structure is quite tricky, although seemingly in a triangle. maybe cos I killed too many braincells this weekend

I understand, you need your brain cells if you are going to scalp The reason why I asked is that for an outsider like me, it's hard to see what levels are important as your fibs are covering most of the chart. I'm also of the opinion that you do not need to know exactly what's going on all the time to make money but as long as it works for you I would then encourage you to continue

Originally Posted by SkiBunny

Unless you don't want to go on the record beforehand in case you aren't correct, maybe you can share and enlighten us with your "truth"?

you know better than that Ski
t324 or rtd2 as i call him still may have his 13700 target come through

Originally Posted by tiktok

The zip file works Gregory . . . now, if you can introduce me to someone who has made it a reality, then I've got a chance of bringing my chocolate kettle idea to market :-)

Originally Posted by captester

Chocolate kettle now I think you are on to something

I like chocolate!

Originally Posted by SkiBunny

...IMHO the best thing for the FOMC to do might be nothing, and emphasize that the appropriate policy response is fiscal and structural, not monetary. If markets fall another 20%, so be it, maybe then the politicians will get it that they need to compromise and act.

where in Canada are you from SkiBunny

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

Euro Break Out North Possibility- If the pair can get back above 1.3640.

After entering in Long Euro, I was stopped out as price got below my risk zone. I re-entered again with twice the position on a full-bodied candle close above channel for a 30 pip/lot gain.

Tip: If the reason for entering a trade still exists after being stopped out, try again.

Originally Posted by cw1

7 times it has bounced off 733
I have benn long on every single bounce on this one and had to close at just below 733
It wants the gap and the market wants the gap closed
a close above 733 and longs it is.
buy the dip on higher lows

aha-- check out GU 733 broke ref chart i posted --- had my fun on it for 1 day - glad it broke though as i knew it would