what you think of a "v" shaped continuation of the trend?
Hi,
USS Enterprise is 24h away from Suez en route to the Strait of Hormuz - there will be 3 carrieres there plus one LHD vessel. I think any news coming from EU has a chance to be dwarfed by MENA fireworks in the coming days/weeks.
Joining DailyFX Forum is free and offers an extended range of features, including: Replying to other peoples' threads and receiving email notification of replies to posts and threads you specify. Click here to join.
Sorry to barge in and I don't particularly understand your outlook. But from a technical perspective, euro on 4H is making a down sloping wedge with 3 pushes, which is almost a sure sign of reversal, there is also a wedge with 3-push on 1H from Tuesday to Wednesday, on 1H timeframe, you can see yesterday's high took out a pivot high of the day before, so in Dow Theory terms, that's a warning for trend reversal. Then this morning it retraced down to a perfect 61.8% with clearly bullish sign candles even on 1H timeframe before the bust up. The retracement low is also a retest of the 4H trendline that it broke up yesterday. It's current high stalled at 161.8% extension of the range. I don't know where you shorted from, but from Wednesday onward, the downside momentum has been clearly slowing and price was very reluctant to go down. I would not have gone short from Wednesday onward.
Even though one's long term fundamental outlook is right, I think prices are due for at least technical correction from time to time. Nothing goes in a straight line. Then I guess it's a matter of one's capitalisation and risk appetite for draw down, one's trading timeframe etc. that would determine if it hurts and how much hurt one can take.
EURUSD: Short Position Still in Play | DailyFX
is an example of the technical-chart type of analysis that persuaded me my "fundamentals" analysis wasn't off base. And that was just before the big blue spike!
EURUSD: Short Position Still in Play | DailyFX
is an example of the technical-chart type of analysis that persuaded me my "fundamentals" analysis wasn't off base. And that was just before the big blue spike!
Have you tracked any specific analyst's forecast performance over a significant period of time to place faith on their analytic calls? And I got the impression that Spivak mostly trades daily candles, and for his style and risk tolerance today's spike would not concern him much at all. That's why it's hard to follow others' trade calls or analysis even if simply for different risk tolerance and money management.
I see now that are going up to 1.33 which will be 2 and then we receive down to 3 which is 1.25..
Go up next is 3 -13246
4- 1.3170
5 -1.33 what is the fibonacci 61.8 from 1.3484 to 1.3003
good weekend to all.
Have you tracked any specific analyst's forecast performance over a significant period of time to place faith on their analytic calls? And I got the impression that Spivak mostly trades daily candles, and for his style and risk tolerance today's spike would not concern him much at all. That's why it's hard to follow others' trade calls or analysis even if simply for different risk tolerance and money management.
I do not know enough about technical analysis to presume to do meta-analysis on a bunch of analysts. We will have to see what Ilya says next time, but I think today's spike is something that stands out on any scale. Anyhow, the reason I "bought" Ilya's bearish assessment over Alejandro's more bullish outlook is, of course, confirmation bias (we believe what fits with what we already believe). I am playing with pure throw-away money, so I was planning to leave the trade in for a week and ride out any ups and downs, but 100 pips to the bad while I went downstairs to get a cup of coffee and work the crossword puzzle shook me up more than a little.
And I guess I'm just too much of a "fundie" to accept that "[shrug] it happens" without some concept of "why?" I can see reasons for the dollar pullback, though surprised at its speed in reaction to a nothing-much piece of news, but cannot fathom a euro rally at this juncture. This is not Malaysia where the combined weight of the traders can overwhelm the local Big Boys: in the world outside of the speculative bubble, there is a huge imbalance of euros that need to be sold over euros that companies need to buy, or Saudi princes want to buy and hold. It's a matter of hydraulics: all this water flows in there and never comes out-- really? What's the "sponge"?
Central banks are generally the sponge; but the Fed said No a long time ago to throwing in its weight; the ECB wants the euro down, not up; Bank of Japan decided they were sopping wet a couple days ago, after weeks of forcing USD/JPY and EUR/JPY rallies (maybe they'll do some more "Asset Purchase" again next week, but I think they're close to their limit). The monthly Eurozone cash-flow deficit, that I singled out as the only OMG! "horror" number (tripled in a month) in the recent news, is similar in magnitude to the yearly US cash-flow deficits that fundies used to decry back in the stagflation decades: of course, dollar amounts from now translate to less than quarters back then, and the reason why is precisely that steady deficit (more dollars to be sold by foreigners than dollars bought with foreign currency by US exporters; so, price had to go down until somebody would buy); just so, the euro has to come down unless somebody somewhere is buying those billions a day, and holding them (or burning them? I mean really, I just don't get where they're going). Maybe that whole deficit happened in the beginning of the month, and the slide from ~1.35 to ~1.31 was enough to improve European companies' competitiveness so their sales are back up and the imbalance is all fixed-- but it sure doesn't look it. What I read is that the drop needed to be at least twice that large (and here again, this is a kind of analysis I don't know enough about to decide if the "experts" are right, just, "sounds good to me"), down to near the January low for European trade to stabilize. Until that happens, excess selling pressure has to continue: a million Forex traders have to accept a couple thousand of their euro-long contracts as deliveries of actual euros, to be spent on trips to Paris, every day-- uh, or maybe not; how about a thousand Saudi princes have to shift a couple million from dollar-denominated accounts to euro-denominated accounts, every day; how is this working?
In this strategy the analyst has 'anticipated' a certain price movement based on a chart pattern before the actual breakout happened
One reason why this probably didn't go as you planned
The neckline on the said HnS played support instead of the 'aniticpated' breakout region
The said HnS never came into play
Also, when we talk about fundamentals, profit booking is more fundamental in nature than technical i suppose. A 500 pips fall in two weeks warrants profit booking as a logical fundamental step
Apart that the shorter the time frame the stronger technical analysis, and longer the TF stronger the fundamental analysis
So a one day movement shouldn't really be bugging you that much if you are a fundie, coz fundas don't change over few hours or days
Originally Posted by Robert Eckert
EURUSD: Short Position Still in Play | DailyFX
is an example of the technical-chart type of analysis that persuaded me my "fundamentals" analysis wasn't off base. And that was just before the big blue spike!
Things can turn around for DX SPOT at imp resis..
Euro possibly to 3110-15 if breaks poss inv HNS neck on 30 mins..
3160-70 if bounce continues..
A break under 1.3000 tgts 2830ish in coming days...
GL...
Depends on how once look at it, there is no doubt there are plenty of HNS & INV HNS on different time frames on euro.......
I'm using a weekly where at the present we are working a possible inv HNS and on daily a clear Reg HNS is there.
Keeping in account what I see on DX and as mentioned 2 days back DX at critical resis and is bound for a correction or reversal, it has played out well and has dipped under a main supporting TL as of now and closing under it. With that in regards, I see a possibility of a move on euro to 3360-70 initially.. A retrace and a possibly breaking above 3590-3610...
Well staying pure technical here, since there is a likley possibility of either a HNS or an inv HNS on charts, I be paying attention to the DX, whereby if the DX 8 hrs closes above the resis TL RED line which earlier was supp, I would have to negate the factor we are working an inv HNS move and pressure would mound to the south side on the euro and would prefer selling euro for a break under 1.3000 and a move to a 1.2830ish or slightly lower to it..
A bigger move could unfold if we can break under that supp TL around 1.28 and a slide to 1.22 would be preferred.. I don't want to complicate things here, but sliding under 1.28 puts us back on the bigger HNS on euro weekly which has taken about 3 yrs to complete and on which the Neck has been broken earlier and calls for a move to 1.20-22 on tgt......
Anyways, staying to the current mkt price action, as of now inv HNS scenario is preferred unless until DX roars back up...
Patience is virtue. The sooner we learn this all, sooner we can start walking to the bank. Good Luck to all of us
The trick is to wait the price meet ur limits, instead of one jumping in.. however scalps is a totally different scenario and is not everyone's cup of tea
Disclaimer: I'm not at all suggesting trades when by either posting the graphs, or my entries. You can view it, but in the end you have to use your own logic and approach, as there is no certainty about this uncertain market...
Sorry to barge in and I don't particularly understand your outlook. But from a technical perspective, euro on 4H is making a down sloping wedge with 3 pushes, which is almost a sure sign of reversal, there is also a wedge with 3-push on 1H from Tuesday to Wednesday, on 1H timeframe, you can see yesterday's high took out a pivot high of the day before, so in Dow Theory terms, that's a warning for trend reversal. Then this morning it retraced down to a perfect 61.8% with clearly bullish sign candles even on 1H timeframe before the bust up. The retracement low is also a retest of the 4H trendline that it broke up yesterday. It's current high stalled at 161.8% extension of the range. I don't know where you shorted from, but from Wednesday onward, the downside momentum has been clearly slowing and price was very reluctant to go down. I would not have gone short from Wednesday onward.
Even though one's long term fundamental outlook is right, I think prices are due for at least technical correction from time to time. Nothing goes in a straight line. Then I guess it's a matter of one's capitalisation and risk appetite for draw down, one's trading timeframe etc. that would determine if it hurts and how much hurt one can take.
Hi everybody from Italy!
In this hourly chart is clear that a small H&S is yesterday ended; what if the next days we see the building of a second larger shoulder ?
In this case the target is around 78.6, where a daily import EMA is also pointing, and could be easily reached by the contribute of a $yen retracement !
Hi everybody from Italy!
In this hourly chart is clear that a small H&S is yesterday ended; what if the next days we see the building of a second larger shoulder ?
In this case the target is around 78.6, where a daily import EMA is also pointing, and could be easily reached by the contribute of a $yen retracement !
Comments, suggestions?
Ciao
EMI
You are possibly right and thnaks for pointing it out...
I track DX SPOT rather then future and beside the 2 hrs HNS formation and a the break I pointed yesterday on the 2 hrs this is the 4 hr charts and I think if this neck break area holds out, we are good to see few days on dollar slide..
Had a blast earlier on EJ longs... possibly will do yen on weekly as it has broken quite a few lvls and possibly looks to continue the same trend...
Patience is virtue. The sooner we learn this all, sooner we can start walking to the bank. Good Luck to all of us
The trick is to wait the price meet ur limits, instead of one jumping in.. however scalps is a totally different scenario and is not everyone's cup of tea
Disclaimer: I'm not at all suggesting trades when by either posting the graphs, or my entries. You can view it, but in the end you have to use your own logic and approach, as there is no certainty about this uncertain market...
...the shorter the time frame the stronger technical analysis, and longer the TF stronger the fundamental analysis
So a one day movement shouldn't really be bugging you that much if you are a fundie, coz fundas don't change over few hours or days
What has me bugged is the nagging worry that I have fundamentally misunderstood the fundamentals. I was venting in the hopes somebody would point out a "fundamental" that I'm missing; I should have seen already that most here are more into squinting at the charts. Somehow or other the investment inflow has to counterbalance the ongoing trade imbalance exactly (euro buyers = euro sellers at all times, right?) The BoJ was a big driver: not so much that they have been buying dollars and euros directly (though they may have added to their foreign-currency reserves some), but that they were "hiring" people to do it for them; a large number of Japanese bond-holders (whether in Japan, or foreigners parking money in Japan, is irrelevant) have had to switch to T-Bills or Bundesbank bonds instead as the BoJ takes Japanese paper out of circulation and does not replenish the supply; of course some could take the fistfuls of yen and put them in the Nikkei (we saw that go up along with USD/JPY and EUR/JPY) but the hope was that government-paper-type people would mostly want to buy other government paper, selling yen for a foreign currency, the BoJ not caring much which currency. But: BoJ turned off the spigot Wednesday. Franosh earlier told me Wednesday was when he saw selling pressure on the euro start to decrease and that he wouldn't have shorted the euro after that. And I don't get where the euro inflow is coming from: maybe it is just that major investors are diversifying away from the US dollar in general, which should be bullish for pound and C/A/NZ dollars, but euro? There is also a trend for more risk-appetite (the much-noted S&P500 rally) but DAX and FTSE aren't up as much, a lot of sideways and down-ticks, so a large shift into the European markets is not evident. I would like to believe the extra euro buyers are all speculative Forex traders (because that would MAKE ME RIGHT! i.e. as euro-longs take their profits, the spike has to retrace 100% and the natural trend to euro depreciation toward 1.2xx resume) but I can't shake the feeling I'm being very stupid about something.
Last edited by Robert Eckert; 03-17-2012 at 01:44 PM.
$COMPQ: i have never seen such order in a confused World, ( i have no other way to word it.) Been spending many hours working on this,at this point could write a article on $COMPQ: from 5/1/2000, till now what a picture. correction started 5/ 1 / 2000 ended 3 / 1 / 2009 monthly chart. New Cycle started 3 / 1 / 2009 this week we took key resistance out at 5 /1 / 2000, Lo. 3042.66 area monthly. now you have to drop down to weekly, daily, & 60 min. to get the rest of the picture. the rewards for learning technical analysis are much deeper than monetary.
the things you are trying to figure out are a complete waste of time and you will not get the truth, just opinions. You will never make money in FX with this type of pondering. The price and price history( the charts) are patterns of thoughts and real world money flows . What you "think" is happening and for what reason is extremely high risk and the most important thing about fx trading is defining your risk. If the euro continues to trend to 1.4 with "risk off" , someone short for a fundamental reason will still be short because there is no boundary to define the risk of a fundamental opinion even if it is sound.
The current price is never reflected on hard facts, just what speculators "think" and what sovereigns and businesses need to do. 5000 traders that have an opinion about a fundamental fact that may be sound in economic theory can be out bid or offered in $$ terms buy 1 sovereign on a single day that is making a transaction for reasons we will never know. This is the battle you chose to fight. Good luck
Originally Posted by Robert Eckert
What has me bugged is the nagging worry that I have fundamentally misunderstood the fundamentals. I was venting in the hopes somebody would point out a "fundamental" that I'm missing; I should have seen already that most here are more into squinting at the charts. Somehow or other the investment inflow has to counterbalance the ongoing trade imbalance exactly (euro buyers = euro sellers at all times, right?) The BoJ was a big driver: not so much that they have been buying dollars and euros directly (though they may have added to their foreign-currency reserves some), but that they were "hiring" people to do it for them; a large number of Japanese bond-holders (whether in Japan, or foreigners parking money in Japan, is irrelevant) have had to switch to T-Bills or Bundesbank bonds instead as the BoJ takes Japanese paper out of circulation and does not replenish the supply; of course some could take the fistfuls of yen and put them in the Nikkei (we saw that go up along with USD/JPY and EUR/JPY) but the hope was that government-paper-type people would mostly want to buy other government paper, selling yen for a foreign currency, the BoJ not caring much which currency. But: BoJ turned off the spigot Wednesday. Franosh earlier told me Wednesday was when he saw selling pressure on the euro start to decrease and that he wouldn't have shorted the euro after that. And I don't get where the euro inflow is coming from: maybe it is just that major investors are diversifying away from the US dollar in general, which should be bullish for pound and C/A/NZ dollars, but euro? There is also a trend for more risk-appetite (the much-noted S&P500 rally) but DAX and FTSE aren't up as much, a lot of sideways and down-ticks, so a large shift into the European markets is not evident. I would like to believe the extra euro buyers are all speculative Forex traders (because that would MAKE ME RIGHT! i.e. as euro-longs take their profits, the spike has to retrace 100% and the natural trend to euro depreciation toward 1.2xx resume) but I can't shake the feeling I'm being very stupid about something.
Disclaimer: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. Forex Capital Markets LLC. will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
English
Español
Français
中文
Deutsch
Italiano
العربية
Sverige
Ελληνικά
Originally Posted by jogold18
Reply With Quote
$ index double H&S?
