Thread: GBP and JPY Pairs H1 2013

Originally Posted by AV1

Did you enter short at 1.3058 you mentioned earlier? I'm glad I didn't, it didn't look right to me!!!

It's very hard for me to update my trades on this site because i do things very quickly. I went short at 3081, covered at 3072 on a failed sustained move below 3060 and am now long again at 3070 sticking to range trading and would like to see 3165 test. Market almost faked me out thinking we would really break down today. Who knows it still could, but the euro is curiously strong consider what's going on in other places in the market.

Also , the problem is now, we are mid stream, the key areas 3035/3000 and 3165 are the levels to be playing. All we can do in between these levels is gamble on the range holding and hitting the sides. And if we are lucky, we are on the right side of the break when it happens. LOL

Originally Posted by AV1

Did you enter short at 1.3058 you mentioned earlier? I'm glad I didn't, it didn't look right to me!!!

I posted a triangle (maybe a B wave) on the daily chart last week, with the overall downward channel line at its outer edge - do not know obviously if this is how matters will eventually play out, but my daily MACD seems to be turning up, implying that the 'range' is intact for now. This was the main reason I kept going long into the low (other than trying to blow my account) and the fact that the 42 week regression slope and its r-square are also confirming an uptrend - see previous weekend report (What Clive Can See) for more info if interested. Basically there is some big energy available for a long move if it so wished to do so. My gamble at the monthly pivot as a target is a cautious measured one for now, but a move to there would do no harm in keeping my thesis in tune.

Onwards and upwards, unless of course it is down. I'll be out at MP and completely rested till next Monday then.

Originally Posted by Clivewaverider

I posted a triangle (maybe a B wave) on the daily chart last week, with the overall downward channel line at its outer edge - do not know obviously if this is how matters will eventually play out, but my daily MACD seems to be turning up, implying that the 'range' is intact for now. This was the main reason I kept going long into the low (other than trying to blow my account) and the fact that the 42 week regression slope and its r-square are also confirming an uptrend - see previous weekend report (What Clive Can See) for more info if interested. Basically there is some big energy available for a long move if it so wished to do so. My gamble at the monthly pivot as a target is a cautious measured one for now, but a move to there would do no harm in keeping my thesis in tune.

Onwards and upwards, unless of course it is down. I'll be out at MP and completely rested till next Monday then.

Clive i agree with you, i don't use the same indicators but what i use i have a similar view that an up move is building and this is technically valid until 2950 breaks, although i would never make a trade with a stop that far down from here. but intermediate, as long as above this daily trend line, i favor positioning for long than building a short.

I see your monthly pivot, but if we get above 3165/75 then we invalidate a move to 2950, in my opinion, so my guess is if we get above 3165 and hit the monthly pivot we will likely blow right through it, possibly to a new high too. ( see my butterfly pattern post from Sunday )

Originally Posted by Clivewaverider

I posted a triangle (maybe a B wave) on the daily chart last week, with the overall downward channel line at its outer edge - do not know obviously if this is how matters will eventually play out, but my daily MACD seems to be turning up, implying that the 'range' is intact for now. This was the main reason I kept going long into the low (other than trying to blow my account) and the fact that the 42 week regression slope and its r-square are also confirming an uptrend - see previous weekend report (What Clive Can See) for more info if interested. Basically there is some big energy available for a long move if it so wished to do so. My gamble at the monthly pivot as a target is a cautious measured one for now, but a move to there would do no harm in keeping my thesis in tune.

Onwards and upwards, unless of course it is down. I'll be out at MP and completely rested till next Monday then.

Well, this chart would support your view. Take a look at some important fibs they've been holding pretty good so far. Other than that have a wonderful time off.

AV1

Originally Posted by psperos

Clive i agree with you, i don't use the same indicators but what i use i have a similar view that an up move is building and this is technically valid until 2950 breaks, although i would never make a trade with a stop that far down from here. but intermediate, as long as above this daily trend line, i favor positioning for long than building a short.

I see your monthly pivot, but if we get above 3165/75 then we invalidate a move to 2950, in my opinion, so my guess is if we get above 3165 and hit the monthly pivot we will likely blow right through it, possibly to a new high too. ( see my butterfly pattern post from Sunday )

I agree, but I am on hols and if I do not take the money off the table and pretend to relax, I'll be in big trouble with the family. I have explained this is my hobby and business but no go!! So, I am resolved to hoping for a pull back to the MP if blows it first. A wonderful catch 22 to have if it happens!

Originally Posted by Fx(MIA)

Guys put your trading caps on, this pair is trading in a range of two larger tFs watch out for head fakes and look for a large move 200 pips

How do we catch this 200 pip move . Lol

Originally Posted by Clivewaverider

I agree, but I am on hols and if I do not take the money off the table and pretend to relax, I'll be in big trouble with the family. I have explained this is my hobby and business but no go!! So, I am resolved to hoping for a pull back to the MP if blows it first. A wonderful catch 22 to have if it happens!

Isn't the solution easy? Tell them if they want more holidays in the future to be funded by you, then you must be allowed to be glued to your charts!

it looks like the dollar index is trapped in an increasingly narrow trading range which usually portends an explosive breakout...

Originally Posted by ridethetrend

How do we catch this 200 pip move . Lol

There are only a few times a Year you get a chance like the one coming. The next 24 - 48 hours is critical. This is what i call the "Seed" a moment where the "the birth of a Trend begins"

P.S. "A trend is only your Friend if your headed in the Same Direction."

I think eu will collapse in few hours, just time to ending ew2

Originally Posted by Fx(MIA)

There are only a few times a Year you get a chance like the one coming. The next 24 - 48 hours is critical. This is what i call the "Seed" a moment where the "the birth of a Trend begins"

P.S. "A trend is only your Friend if your headed in the Same Direction."

What exactly do you think is going to happen?

Originally Posted by Mary R

it looks like the dollar index is trapped in an increasingly narrow trading range which usually portends an explosive breakout...

Thanks, you just gave me an idea of a possible ascending triangle which would support bearish view on EUR/USD. Something to watch.

Originally Posted by Mary R

What exactly do you think is going to happen?

I have a Prediction but I would like it to remain Unknown but Here Is a Chart

Originally Posted by AV1

Thanks, you just gave me an idea of a possible ascending triangle which would support bearish view on EUR/USD. Something to watch.

yes, that is what I am thinking. There is heavy resistance at the 10,000 level but once broken it could become strong support. it will depend on company earnings, and confirmation from the Fed that they are not going to jump into an additional stimulus program right away

Since everyone in so enamoured with a seemingly obvious H&S at the bottom of a trend, I would like to make a very explicit 'prediction' and to be a contrarian: give or take some 'wash and rinse' at the low, euro will make a dash higher, reaching 140 zone by mid-June.

But I reserve the right to jump out and say I have had another prediction that remained unknown should this fail spectacularly