Thread: GBP and JPY Pairs H1 2013

Originally Posted by rcopadilla

While it is appropriate to consider various alternatives before coming to a decisions, sometimes that can lead to paralysis by analysis.
A quick look at the recent swings of the price between the2 Hour Bollinger20 bands show a lack of a retest of a band (the price has been swinging to the other band without retagging the original band beforehand). That tendency will likely continue. The current situation is looking for a tag of the upper band before any tag of the lower. No retest. As long as the price is trading above the Boll20 midline, the upper band tag should happen first. If the prices starts trading below the midline, that should be sufficient warning to make an adjustment.

I hear you: up then down! Some action either way would be nice for a start!

Definitely I'm going with this count. I was waiting for that short from 1.3180 all this morning and I missed good part of it now looking at the long side...huh.

Euro 4H: it really is in chop zone.

Originally Posted by rcopadilla

While it is appropriate to consider various alternatives before coming to a decisions, sometimes that can lead to paralysis by analysis.
A quick look at the recent swings of the price between the2 Hour Bollinger20 bands show a lack of a retest of a band (the price has been swinging to the other band without retagging the original band beforehand). That tendency will likely continue. The current situation is looking for a tag of the upper band before any tag of the lower. No retest. As long as the price is trading above the Boll20 midline, the upper band tag should happen first. If the prices starts trading below the midline, that should be sufficient warning to make an adjustment.

Even in a trading range, there will be a bearish or bullish bias. If during the tags of the lower bands, the number of bars doing the tagging are becoming fewer and fewer, that would be a bullish bias. On the upper bands, the number of bars doing the tagging will increase if the bias is bullish.

Originally Posted by turmaz

good morning traders!

yes correct we are in ascending triangle but its really not necessary that we fall off the ascending triangle "hard", the point is, to me the weekly time frame is in play and as you can see in my charts we are just coming up from tipple bottom, and triple bottoms are real strong reversals and b4 that we fell from weekly down trend line; and traditionally when this pair fall from weekly trendline it should/must take out more than 400 pips but failed to go beyond 389 pips, with all the technical i do mechanical trading too and to me the mechanics of this pair saying we are going real "high" i could be wrong and that is why we use stops to protect our trading capital.
as you can view the weekly chart now the down TL is roughly around 1.3250 once broken and closed above then its a bye bye weekly down trend and hello new uptrend on weekly time frame and that is the reasons for so many days we are getting so many technical invalidation on lower time frames but on larger time frame no "invalidation".
my weekly charts says if we close above 1.3251 on weekly candle then we could reach 1.3661-1.3705 range sooner then later
check arrows on my charts

and good luck to you all in your trading!

doing an 8 hrs alternate view which i pointed last time as well. Have a descending triangle formulation which is a hint a break to the south is more of a possibility then the one higher. not saying it will go accordingly, but pattern wise lower side is preferred and to sell into strength from the most optimum lvl would simply be a blessing..
My weekly agrees to your 37XX lvl, apart from it been showing a move into 3610-30.... We in a possible descending wedge and hence a break higher to the top of it can cause a up-move on it..

GL..

Note the multiple bars during the double tagging of the 15min upper Boll20 band. (The upper band on the 1hour was also being tagged.) The inevitable retracement first spent a few bars at the midline support before continuing on down to stronger support at the lower band. The CCI crossover confirms the reversal and the price action can resume completing the upside scenario projected by the slower timeframes,

The descending cloud is the higer timeframe cloud, just like the blue cloud rushing up to form a bearish pattern to push down, the red cloud is joining in the fun, very telling of the time it's going to happen, soon I believe, but note that this is a 4 hourly chart.

As stated earlier, I don't have a position. I will have when the gap is closed. If it doesn't close, nothing much to boast my side.

I see MoneyInc has developed my cloud to be used. "With great powers come great responsibilities", said spiderman's father

I wonder what will happen when all see the same views... sooner or later, sooner or later...

Originally Posted by Paul Chin

The descending cloud is the higer timeframe cloud, just like the blue cloud rushing up to form a bearish pattern to push down, the red cloud is joining in the fun, very telling of the time it's going to happen, soon I believe, but note that this is a 4 hourly chart.

As stated earlier, I don't have a position. I will have when the gap is closed. If it doesn't close, nothing much to boast my side.

I see MoneyInc has developed my cloud to be used. "With great powers come great responsibilities", said spiderman's father

I wonder what will happen when all see the same views... sooner or later, sooner or later...

I agree 100%... I am waiting for a downtrend rocket...

This is exactly why I am bullish on the Euro.

Heinrich

My 240min MACD study is looking really tired now and looking to take the daily down with it. There is still a lot of life left in the 2day, and I have got my 240min, 1 day and 2 day MA bands all positive at moment so first good strike down will be worth banking in my plan, when I can count a MyWave 9 or greater with a trend line reversal or regression channel overthrow. All for the future but glad I did not trust any further bullish moves thus far today.

Still got my eye on yesterday's low mind you for a positive test for a long if creates a defendible base.

Originally Posted by ericwong

Hello, I am a newbie. Based on the reports that I have read, I shorted the Euro. But who is pushing it higher! Just can't believe it!

FOMC tomo, USD sellers push EURUSD higher.

don't seem to be able to upload chart - does anyone know how to clear their uploads?

Originally Posted by MysticMegatron

FOMC tomo, USD sellers push EURUSD higher.

don't seem to be able to upload chart - does anyone know how to clear their uploads?

try this ImageShack® - Online Photo and Video Hosting

Another 2 or 3 bars should see the upper band being tagged and the bands even narrower.
The last time the bands had narrowed, there was a breakdown. But that was only after multiple hits on the upper band resistance which continued to hold, followed by multiple attempts that did not reach the upper bands (a sign of weakness). It will be interesting to see what happens this time. Maybe a big blue bar bursts thru resistance to enable the bullish scenario from the Daily charts to complete its travel to the upper bands.

Originally Posted by rcopadilla

Another 2 or 3 bars should see the upper band being tagged and the bands even narrower.
The last time the bands had narrowed, there was a breakdown. But that was only after multiple hits on the upper band resistance which continued to hold, followed by multiple attempts that did not reach the upper bands (a sign of weakness). It will be interesting to see what happens this time. Maybe a big blue bar bursts thru resistance to enable the bullish scenario from the Daily charts to complete its travel to the upper bands.

rcopadilla I think that this attempt to higher high is normal and the last one. The area between 1.3189-1.3205 offers great opportunities for going short.

Originally Posted by Spyros

rcopadilla I think that this attempt to higher high is normal and the last one. The area between 1.3189-1.3205 offers great opportunities for going short.

The daily and weekly charts are bullish. You are too early being bearish. The trick to good trading is to adjust to current conditions and not to develop tunnel vision. The market will do a lot of headfakes so stay with what the longer timeframes are saying.
I will turn bear after the daily and weekly upper bands have been tagged.