Hi Guru Robert - As usual I like to thank you in explaining to me. I always enjoy reading your reply. As I'm a die hard fundamentalist, I buy or sell to hold. I share your opinion that the euro PPP is $1.11 and that's why I shorted and am still holding the position though losing several hundred now. I don't know, and my stubborness refuses to allow me to believe that the euro can go so high! I refuse to understand why traders or rich traders dare to take the risk to buy high (probably they then sell higher). But isn't the risk just too great that the euro tanks suddenly. I have seen vertical dives off 50 to 60 pips and they lose their pants. Why then do they dare to take the risk to chase. Is this what you call contrarian approach or because the SSI is so extreme now that retail traders like us are "cleverly" shorting and the biggies are by the side swallowing our trades! Anyways I am content with my position even I lose because my brain refuses to comprehend the strength of the euro. All the best Robert. Eric
forget all your stubborness or youre gonna lose money. if a trade is going against you the faster youre out of it the better
Been pretty busy lately but doesnt seem like im missing too much anyway. Overall picture of the Euro is the Triangle setup on the daily chart. To me the weekly is bullish but we'll see which way we go. GL all.
right, basically can't upload charts still, but on week long timescales, i have a sell at 133, which i feel may come into play tomo, otherwise, a buy at 13155/60, which could be an afternoon-2day trade.
on the move up to 133, there will be some optimism about more action from the BoJ tomo as they'll certainly need to do more stimulus to get to their inflation target given slowdown elsewhere in the world. maybe we'll see this reflected in equity markets
politically europe has weakened this week and the french situation casts a shadow until sarko gets re-elected (and if not we're probably heading for new EURUSD over the next 3 months lows imo)
Here you see the last wave has retraced to the 61.8 of the fibo. Very common. Also the obvious 4 hour rising wedge and the upper descending daily trendline. Here is my chart
I've thought I got the best entry at 1.328, and yet the bull spike still manage to stop me out....
The cloud is all showing the right order for a push down, let's see if the higher high is more accurate, or my cloud is more accurate...
I expect one more push higher out of the wedge perhaps to that falling daily trend line before a turn around, however im already short and waiting, RR too tasty too pass up
Hi Guru Robert - As usual I like to thank you in explaining to me. I always enjoy reading your reply. As I'm a die hard fundamentalist, I buy or sell to hold. I share your opinion that the euro PPP is $1.11 and that's why I shorted and am still holding the position though losing several hundred now. I don't know, and my stubborness refuses to allow me to believe that the euro can go so high! I refuse to understand why traders or rich traders dare to take the risk to buy high (probably they then sell higher). But isn't the risk just too great that the euro tanks suddenly. I have seen vertical dives off 50 to 60 pips and they lose their pants. Why then do they dare to take the risk to chase. Is this what you call contrarian approach or because the SSI is so extreme now that retail traders like us are "cleverly" shorting and the biggies are by the side swallowing our trades! Anyways I am content with my position even I lose because my brain refuses to comprehend the strength of the euro. All the best Robert. Eric
I have been baffled trying to comprehend these continuing upswings as well, and so are a lot of analysts out there. But the bottom line is: those guys buying up all those euros have a lot of money, and you and I don't. So the market goes their way. Do they know something we don't? Or are they making a really bad move? What matters more than figuring out their motives is figuring out whether they are going to continue doing this, and if so, for how long, so we can trade in ways that make money. I am very happy for you if you can be truly content when you lose, knowing that you are right: I feel even more content when I am right, and also winning!
I cannot see the euro tanking all the way down to $1.11, because major currencies are always going to have a "reserve currency" premium. I roughly calculate it would need to be in the lower 1.20's before the southern economies can start growing again. However, the ECB does not act like the Fed or the Bank of Japan, to prioritize economic growth: their charter states their policy aim as containing inflation. A big part of the mystery of the institutional buyers' motivation is a confidence that the currency will not be *manipulated* downward, as can too easily happen with the dollar and the yen. However, market forces still should drive it down eventually: the big sellers aren't going anywhere, because they make more euros that they need to cash in, every single day that the strong euro makes it profitable to export to Europe (and not so profitable to export out of Europe). So there are limits on these upward moves: they keep running into a buzz-saw of heavy euro-dumping. Are the big buyers going to go anywhere? The Asian banks may be about done, but maybe the Saudi royals are feeling like diversifying out of dollars, and will step into the role of propping up the euro.
I am thinking next week or so, however, that the buyers are going to fold their tents and let the euro crash. The political weather will get stormier the longer this economic mismatch goes on. MysticMegatron says "the french situation casts a shadow until sarko gets re-elected" but what I hear from France is that Sarko is already toast (he made some noises trying to appeal to the National Front people and now has to say he doesn't mean it or lose all the centrists; like Romney's ploy with trying to play Tea Party and then do an Etch-a-Sketch, it turns off both); Greek elections the same day will be very telling about whether the south is ready to revolt openly against the bankers; Spain will be noisy as the demonstration season gets into full swing; none of this can be good for euro-denominated investments, as markets hate uncertainty more than anything.
I have been baffled trying to comprehend these continuing upswings as well, and so are a lot of analysts out there. But the bottom line is: those guys buying up all those euros have a lot of money, and you and I don't. So the market goes their way. Do they know something we don't? Or are they making a really bad move? What matters more than figuring out their motives is figuring out whether they are going to continue doing this, and if so, for how long, so we can trade in ways that make money. I am very happy for you if you can be truly content when you lose, knowing that you are right: I feel even more content when I am right, and also winning!
I cannot see the euro tanking all the way down to $1.11, because major currencies are always going to have a "reserve currency" premium. I roughly calculate it would need to be in the lower 1.20's before the southern economies can start growing again. However, the ECB does not act like the Fed or the Bank of Japan, to prioritize economic growth: their charter states their policy aim as containing inflation. A big part of the mystery of the institutional buyers' motivation is a confidence that the currency will not be *manipulated* downward, as can too easily happen with the dollar and the yen. However, market forces still should drive it down eventually: the big sellers aren't going anywhere, because they make more euros that they need to cash in, every single day that the strong euro makes it profitable to export to Europe (and not so profitable to export out of Europe). So there are limits on these upward moves: they keep running into a buzz-saw of heavy euro-dumping. Are the big buyers going to go anywhere? The Asian banks may be about done, but maybe the Saudi royals are feeling like diversifying out of dollars, and will step into the role of propping up the euro.
I am thinking next week or so, however, that the buyers are going to fold their tents and let the euro crash. The political weather will get stormier the longer this economic mismatch goes on. MysticMegatron says "the french situation casts a shadow until sarko gets re-elected" but what I hear from France is that Sarko is already toast (he made some noises trying to appeal to the National Front people and now has to say he doesn't mean it or lose all the centrists; like Romney's ploy with trying to play Tea Party and then do an Etch-a-Sketch, it turns off both); Greek elections the same day will be very telling about whether the south is ready to revolt openly against the bankers; Spain will be noisy as the demonstration season gets into full swing; none of this can be good for euro-denominated investments, as markets hate uncertainty more than anything.
Sell in May and walk away? Isnt that what they say? Im with ya
I have been baffled trying to comprehend these continuing upswings as well, and so are a lot of analysts out there. But the bottom line is: those guys buying up all those euros have a lot of money, and you and I don't. So the market goes their way. Do they know something we don't? Or are they making a really bad move? What matters more than figuring out their motives is figuring out whether they are going to continue doing this, and if so, for how long, so we can trade in ways that make money. I am very happy for you if you can be truly content when you lose, knowing that you are right: I feel even more content when I am right, and also winning!
I cannot see the euro tanking all the way down to $1.11, because major currencies are always going to have a "reserve currency" premium. I roughly calculate it would need to be in the lower 1.20's before the southern economies can start growing again. However, the ECB does not act like the Fed or the Bank of Japan, to prioritize economic growth: their charter states their policy aim as containing inflation. A big part of the mystery of the institutional buyers' motivation is a confidence that the currency will not be *manipulated* downward, as can too easily happen with the dollar and the yen. However, market forces still should drive it down eventually: the big sellers aren't going anywhere, because they make more euros that they need to cash in, every single day that the strong euro makes it profitable to export to Europe (and not so profitable to export out of Europe). So there are limits on these upward moves: they keep running into a buzz-saw of heavy euro-dumping. Are the big buyers going to go anywhere? The Asian banks may be about done, but maybe the Saudi royals are feeling like diversifying out of dollars, and will step into the role of propping up the euro.
I am thinking next week or so, however, that the buyers are going to fold their tents and let the euro crash. The political weather will get stormier the longer this economic mismatch goes on. MysticMegatron says "the french situation casts a shadow until sarko gets re-elected" but what I hear from France is that Sarko is already toast (he made some noises trying to appeal to the National Front people and now has to say he doesn't mean it or lose all the centrists; like Romney's ploy with trying to play Tea Party and then do an Etch-a-Sketch, it turns off both); Greek elections the same day will be very telling about whether the south is ready to revolt openly against the bankers; Spain will be noisy as the demonstration season gets into full swing; none of this can be good for euro-denominated investments, as markets hate uncertainty more than anything.
Here you go Robert this is for you my friend. News Headlines
hello and very warm good morning all!
today i would like to talk mechanically!
as i quoted a important number 1.3183 last night i would look forward to this number in very near future that how price reacts there because this is key area and hot spot trading zone, as most of you know by now i am purely a technical trader and i always looking in to the prices why the turned around from that particular area, but technical trading is commanded by the mechanical trading, take an example of a car; a driver and a car mechanic car driver only knows how to drive a car and this is technical trader and mechanic knows the engine how it works and he definately know how to drive it
prices just manages to break the imp weekly down line as shown in the chart, this is early signal that we are go up but there is no hurry, this up move fade here @ 1.3262 or 1.3274-78,
i booked my profit at 1.3256 now i am waiting for the retrace and eagerly waiting how the prices react on these number if goes up i would love to short and goes down then i'll wait for the reaction on those down prices mentioned in the chart
good luck!
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Originally Posted by ericwong
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Higher high indeed, but...
