Thread: GBP and JPY Pairs H1 2013

i would sell any up with stop 1.3050 . target 1.2870/1.2815

Good luck

Originally Posted by ando24

Dollar realtime stream charts free:
FOREX_REALTIME_CHARTS_SMALL_1_MINUTE_CANDLE_30UNIT_NORMAL_DUKASCOPY

Dollar realtime charts free:
DOLLAR_LIVE_CHARTS

hey ando24, whats your view on the euro, you a bull or a bear?
how's sales, are they good from this forum?

EURO current and immediate resis is 2955 and if holds out expecting a move down to 2895 but would be incline to see a surge from here onwards as not expecting it to break as of yet.. that is if no EU bad news starts doing the rounds... Expected move today against the 2890-95 hold is expected around to 3027-30 for today...
USD has been in a bull channel instead of an expected wedge I was suspecting earlier.. Still the tops seems to be looking heavy and 8 hrs can show a corrective drop upto around 9930-37...

GL...

Originally Posted by Sim3

Ok I get some screenshot of the recently trading.
I entered at 3177 thinking it has dropped to the bottom and the RSI has signal oversold, however I was wrong
Shortly after I enter another position at 3130 thinking it has really oversold. The reversal did happen shortly after but i didnt catch the moment at the time and it start to retrace forming a double top
I continue to hold my position seeing that it has double bottom and might set for a reversal.
But things just doesn't turn out what it suppose to be and end up losing 220 pips at the moment. I am still holding to the baby and waiting for any opportunity to minimize my loss.


You might say that why I never put stop loss in the first place. I got some bad experience using the stop loss. For the first few trading, I did put stop loss at 30-50 pips but forex is very violate and it might just up/down 50pips before it recover and this usually happen when I am sleeping. End up losing due to the stop loss and if I didn't put any stop loss, I will have a profit. To prevent this from happening I widen my stop loss at 300 pips.
Can you advise me what I have done wrong in my trading and what is the best practice for such situation?

Thank you.

Hi Sim3. Hope I can help. After all. Been there, done that. Hence my motto. And you are right about the stop losses.
Ok. You broke the cardinal rule by trading against the trend.
You assumed a change in direction because you misread your indicators.
You did not wait for confirmation of a change in direction.
Personally I do not have any indicators on my main charts except for the Heiken Ashi which I find is all one really needs to trade with, along with drawing lines & boxes to show breakouts etc.
My Woodies CCI is only to show divergence & to reassure me that the trend is really down when a minor retracement occurs.
Your last chart say’s it all. The trend was down. You lower indicators had just past through heading South. You went North.
If you still have the trade going, you may be in for the long haul. Either pull out or Hedge at a higher value. Not sure what charting package you have. Hopefully it is easy to hedge with like mine. I hardly ever pull out of a losing trade. I just hedge the hell out of it until it comes good again.

Looking for 1.2860, so long as it does not break north for a decent retracement.....

I think it needs to get above 1.29832 once it does then it will drop and make a new low sub 1.2900 and from there the longs should be good for a ride

This is with an ending diagonal in view above 1.29832 confirms as long as it does not make it past 1.3045 but 161.8 of A of 4 is at 1.3003 so from there south to 1.2890 give or take and then the bigger ride north

With respect to the trend, I'm still looking into selling on a test or close to 1.30.

Originally Posted by banison

With respect to the trend, I'm still looking into selling on a test or close to 1.30.

...me to...

Originally Posted by banison

With respect to the trend, I'm still looking into selling on a test or close to 1.30.

probably won't jump into any positions until after any reaction to data coming out at 0800 gmt

Next target to sell 1,2977 and 1,3035

aparently there is some big money propping the euro until an option is time out
anyone know when that is if its not already happened?
cheers

Originally Posted by ericwong

Hi Robert - as usual, thanks for your researched info on the reasons why the Euro is still relatlively strong despite the various bearish forecasts and also the actual events happening in Greece, Spain etc. Looks like there will be continued support - but how long more?

*shrug* I don't know, didn't think it could break back up above 1.295 tonight but it surprised me again. EDIT: and now after peaking at 1.2963 it's sliding again; I was waiting for it to go a little higher before shorting again but missed the best point; Gawd this pair can be baffling.

Trend really should stay downward for the next months (European economy cannot grow, I guesstimate, unless euro hits ~1.22 and stays there all summer), but there is more upward pressure than there "should" be. As Sharon says, depreciating the dollar for a quick short-term goose to the US economy (despite any long-term costs) is what Obama needs in election season; my own guess is that the Fed will not actually turn on the spigots until after the Republican convention, but investors are already pricing that in, and dumping dollars anytime bad economic news looks like the Fed might get some excuses. Watch out for the "consumer confidence" data-print this Friday; on March 15 just a slight downtick on that number spurred a huge EUR/USD uptick (wiped out a whole week of mostly decline within an hour). Could be very profitable if you guess the direction right, but if you can't stand the thought of getting burned, sideline yourself before the number hits.

Originally Posted by jbiggart

aparently there is some big money propping the euro until an option is time out
anyone know when that is if its not already happened?
cheers

option expiries are ussually due 10 a.m. NY time - unless they are toasted earlier

there is still this 1.29 barier and bids ahead

Patryk

Originally Posted by Robert Eckert

Watch out for the "consumer confidence" data-print this Friday; on March 15 just a slight downtick on that number spurred a huge EUR/USD uptick (wiped out a whole week of mostly decline within an hour). Could be very profitable if you guess the direction right, but if you can't stand the thought of getting burned, sideline yourself before the number hits.

Hi Robert - you mentioned that if this Friday' sconsumer confidence shows a downtick, it could spur huge EUR/USD uptick. I thought that it would spur the stock market downtick and inversely spur a USD uptick. Could you clarify again. Thanks.