1.2610 area is critical....a break above could lead to higher prices. however the illogical thing would be to hit the 1.2610 area consolidate and drop like a rock.....
I was just thinking that myself,,,,,I like.....good analysis
Originally Posted by turmaz
good morning trader!
as i earlier mentioned the number 2611, the day b4 was 2598, the numbers changes because of the lower low yesterday. keep in mind if we close above 2611 on hourly time frame then this number 2611 will open the door for 2660 then 2708. again i will say closing above and below matters as we closed under 2563 we saw last nite and today in the morning 2521, now we have a closing above 2563 and this number is shouting for 2611 close above this number and then bulls are good to go to 2950xxx
EUR/USD traded lower overnight and is now correcting these losses. The short term trend is however bearish and it would therefore not surprise me if price stalls and reverses from the 1.2580-1.2620 area over the next 1.5 hours. After reversing we would trade to this morning's low. A breakout under this morning’s low would take price to 1.25 and 1.2450 in case of a breakdown under 1.25.
Something that could hinder price from trading under this morning’s low is the fact that it’s Friday which causes traders reduce positions to carry less risk over the weekend. Given the fact that we traded from 1.2820 to 1.2520 we might also see some profit taking on short positions.
In the case we would trade above yesterday's high which is 1.2620 the Euro will probably strengthen to 1.2660 which is today's R2 level of the pivot point indicator. I would personally not buy the EUR/USD if this happens rather close any short positions.
If you can any questions about this scenario or anything else trading related feel free to write to me here on the forum.
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Last edited by Alejandro Zambrano; 05-25-2012 at 04:58 AM.
EUR/USD traded lower overnight and is now correcting these losses. The short term trend is however bearish and it would therefore not surprise me if price stalls and reverses from the 1.2580-1.2620 area over the next 1.5 hours. After reversing we would trade to this morning's lows. A breakout under this morning’s low would take price to 1.25 and 1.2450 in case of a breakdown under 1.25.
Something that could hinder price from trading under this morning’s low is the fact that it’s Friday which causes traders reduce positions to carry less risk over the weekend. Given the fact that we traded from 1.2820 to 1.2520 we might also see some profit taking on short positions.
In the case we would trade above yesterday's high which is 1.2620 the Euro will probably strengthen to 1.2660 which is today's R2 level of the pivot point indicator. I would personally not buy the EUR/USD if this happens rather close any short positions.
If you can any questions about this scenario or anything else trading related feel free to write to me here on the forum.
Feel free to join me today at 10:30 GMT (11:30 UK time) for a free FX, stock and commodity market webinar at www.dailyfx.com/bvb Send an e-mail to azambrano@fxcm.com to sign up to my distribution list.
That is what i was planning to do.
I have 2 pending short positions on 1.260 an 1.265,
For me it seams that it doesn't get any higher then the 1.270
I hope my pending goes in, before the flush to 1.248 or lower :-)
Eurobonds + LTRO: Enough for a Euro rally to c. 1.28/1.29?
Fellow traders,
Almost out of nowhere it looks like pressure is now mounting swiftly on Merkel to discuss mutualisation of debt in the form of Eurobonds - a purported "silver bullet" solution to the crisis. Sadly, the market's buying this.
While forms of jointly-issued debt such as that written by the EFSF already exist, fully backed Eurobonds (read: Germany subsidising the weaker perhiphery of Europe) are now on the table, with Monti of Italy publicly reassuring the media yesterday evening that "Germany will change its tune on eurobonds". News of this has sent the Euro up c. 80bps and the currency is toying with settling above 1.26 for the week.
The bigger issue here, for those who are short, is how long such a dead-cat bounce will last. The 8-hour RSI now indicates that this could result in a further 200bps of upside activity with a move to c. 1.28 (we still have a larger short in place at about 1.285).
Having said that, we remain short as Germans are unlikely to allow Eurobonds until fiscal discipline and a fiscal union (or some signs of fiscal discipline) start to emerge from the periphery. It seems Greece will go bust before such signs emerge.
Key risk: While elections in Greece next month and their uncertain outcome place a cap on the Euro at around 1.29, if Draghi does announce a 2nd LTRO in June/July along with cuttting the ECB refi rate by 25 basis points in September - all of this compounded by a release of Eurobonds could propel the Euro past 1.30. Having said that, accomodative monetary policiy and liquidty injections have decreasing returns to scale over time (i.e they get diluted if repeated again and again) and Eurobonds do not solve the bigger issues of inherent work-ethic, cost-structure, deficit and fiscal/political differentials across Euro member states.
Expect high volatility, short into strength.
kind regards,
Midas
Last edited by Alejandro Zambrano; 05-25-2012 at 04:57 AM.
1.2610 area is critical....a break above could lead to higher prices. however the illogical thing would be to hit the 1.2610 area consolidate and drop like a rock.....
alright i gave the numbers earlier but not under 2521 why because price is little advance then price closing but the price closing confirms the price action this we should need to understand, price action gave the prices under 2521 but this price action was never confirmed by price closing, and the same price action gave us earlier 2611 yesterday and when the price closing confirms it by closing above it then i am confident for the 2708/09 number. and now for the illogical part if price action under 2521 confirms by price closing under 2521 then we have the next down number and that is 1.2879.
but i am confident that price will close above 2611 and i am lucky to bought at 2521 number with stop 1 pip under 2514
Can you elaborate Patryk? Tnote down, yield up, stocks and EUR up?? Bit rusty on these things!
yes and yes and yes - nasty gap - there must be a reason for it to occour we`ll know soon
BUT - When trasuries make a turn there is not always an immediate follow through in FX market - fx laggs behind bonds - sometime a few weeks are needed for fx to catch up bonds
edit: bunds and others did not react that strongly - this is US only weakness - soo risk could very well be still off, but USTs could be too expesnsive "safeheaven" at theese levels - or maybe whales are shuffling their positions ???
alright i gave the numbers earlier but not under 2521 why because price is little advance then price closing but the price closing confirms the price action this we should need to understand, price action gave the prices under 2521 but this price action was never confirmed by price closing, and the same price action gave us earlier 2611 yesterday and when the price closing confirms it by closing above it then i am confident for the 2708/09 number. and now for the illogical part if price action under 2521 confirms by price closing under 2521 then we have the next down number and that is 1.2879.
but i am confident that price will close above 2611 and i am lucky to bought at 2521 number with stop 1 pip under 2514
trade safe
EDIT: sorry the next down number if we close under 2521 would be 2479
What do bond markets know ahead of us? - UJ not taking it seriously though.
Patryk
Hey, Patryk. Would that be only because of a bad quote by your chart broker? I checked both TOS and MT4 charts for 30-yr and 10-yr, there is no gap down.
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Originally Posted by turmaz 
