same thing happened in spanish property market - prices driven higher by speculators - more developments because of false demand created by speculators - demand had already been supplied -there were no real buyers left - when they worked this out it was too late
Alej - thank you very much for your explanation. I am learning. This is really a battlefield between all forces!
If you know your enemy and you know yourself you need not fear the results of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself you will succumb in every battle.
I'm rolling over my recommendation from last weekend - short Euro over the weekend.
This, almost ridiculous run in the common currency this week, has shuffled out a handful of shorters (which is good) and most importantly, priced in at-least 50% of a new-dem win over the weekend. If Syriza does win (tonight I find out from our man on the ground in Greece, who, when I last spoke to him actually said Syriza held a 3% lead as of Tuesday evening), Euro is likely headed to 1.228.
Our broker is actually not accepting any orders from 6am EST to 3pm EST this Sunday owing to, what their internal analysts believe, will be unprecedented levels of volatility.
For any of you who are worried, scared, confused about your shorts - don't be. The bulls have had their bit, soon the drop is going to come with full vengeance.
Happy to get into detailed fundamentals, but am holding off for now - our previous arguments stand.
BoJ rate decision tonight may spur some risk off unless they do QE
Hiya Mystic, Be weary of the HnS formation, it has no downward sloping neckline and the right shoulder isnt having a volume spike. Just a couple of things to be weary of as the HnS is so common. I would assume that it isnt real
I'm rolling over my recommendation from last weekend - short Euro over the weekend.
This, almost ridiculous run in the common currency this week, has shuffled out a handful of shorters (which is good) and most importantly, priced in at-least 50% of a new-dem win over the weekend. If Syriza does win (tonight I find out from our man on the ground in Greece, who, when I last spoke to him actually said Syriza held a 3% lead as of Tuesday evening), Euro is likely headed to 1.228.
Our broker is actually not accepting any orders from 6am EST to 3pm EST this Sunday owing to, what their internal analysts believe, will be unprecedented levels of volatility.
For any of you who are worried, scared, confused about your shorts - don't be. The bulls have had their bit, soon the drop is going to come with full vengeance.
Happy to get into detailed fundamentals, but am holding off for now - our previous arguments stand.
Short into strength,
Midas
Dear Midas - reading your writeup here is most comforting and assuring of my short positions which I have been holding for weeks!!
I think care should be taken. Lots of comments today about large banks risk adjusting positions. Basically, they are covering shorts to lessen risk of the weekend for what could be extreme volatility Sun/Mon. So that would be a major reason Eur trading higher, which leads one to consider what will happen once short covering demand ceases. While I will not be so arrogant as to say I know what's going to happen, I will say if short covering stops and Greek elections do not go well, we may all be able to buy BMW's in a couple of weeks for about $2.37, maybe 3 bucks---LOL
if those that cant understand why the EU has rallied because it is in such terrible trouble, if they would stop looking at the fundamentals and only your charts for awhile they might discover that in the end the fundis are priced into the charts. very short term you will see reaction but market then heads back to neutral and begins again. it starts with the MONTHLY on down. If you cant read them then you'll never make it in the long term, it really is that simple.
Why not begin to look for simple proven S/R..there is major and minor of both. Why not spend your time learning what makes them that way. Why not spend your time watching and learning simple PA. Why not begin to look for HH's and LL's, define reference points and wait for them to form and trade to and from them.
Stop holding a Bias long or short based on Fundis because it does not work, it does not work, the market trends VERY little in one direction. 85% of the time it is ranging, holding a bias in a range will get you stopped out time and time again as you try and force the market to heed your bias of direction based on news.
There will always be a debate tech VS fundis. Personally I do not know any fundamental traders that have been around for many years trading that way. The traders I do know that really "do this for a living" depend heavily on Tech analysis and watch the fundis but they have no impact on their overall strategy. They know when a new event is coming and sit and wait for it to pass, let the market settle and go from there... if you can read technical analysis correctly, its already there ahead of time. None of them look for X pips per day/week or anything like that. They take what the market gives them one trade at a time. Some go for days or weeks without trading waiting for the market to come to them. It always does if you are patient.
The NEED to trade and BE IN a trade all the time is a sure sign that you have much to learn. The market is going nowhere so you will never miss a trade, there is always another so why not take only the best setups with the highest probability of success? Those trades are based on Technical analysis and good ole PA. simple!
if those that cant understand why the EU has rallied because it is in such terrible trouble, if they would stop looking at the fundamentals and only your charts for awhile they might discover that in the end the fundis are priced into the charts. very short term you will see reaction but market then heads back to neutral and begins again. it starts with the MONTHLY on down. If you cant read them then you'll never make it in the long term, it really is that simple.
Why not begin to look for simple proven S/R..there is major and minor of both. Why not spend your time learning what makes them that way. Why not spend your time watching and learning simple PA. Why not begin to look for HH's and LL's, define reference points and wait for them to form and trade to and from them.
Stop holding a Bias long or short based on Fundis because it does not work, it does not work, the market trends VERY little in one direction. 85% of the time it is ranging, holding a bias in a range will get you stopped out time and time again as you try and force the market to heed your bias of direction based on news.
There will always be a debate tech VS fundis. Personally I do not know any fundamental traders that have been around for many years trading that way. The traders I do know that really "do this for a living" depend heavily on Tech analysis and watch the fundis but they have no impact on their overall strategy. They know when a new event is coming and sit and wait for it to pass, let the market settle and go from there... if you can read technical analysis correctly, its already there ahead of time. None of them look for X pips per day/week or anything like that. They take what the market gives them one trade at a time. Some go for days or weeks without trading waiting for the market to come to them. It always does if you are patient.
The NEED to trade and BE IN a trade all the time is a sure sign that you have much to learn. The market is going nowhere so you will never miss a trade, there is always another so why not take only the best setups with the highest probability of success? Those trades are based on Technical analysis and good ole PA. simple!
I agree Cody
I just commented yesterday about how if you technically analyze a chart correctly the fundamentals will just play into your charts. I said it once and Ill say it again.
Technicals mean This is your job
Fundamentals mean you are an investor
Why is this thread so peculiarly full of people trying to play gods applying their view of 'funnymental' to relatively short-term speculative trading. Like CodyB said, just follow the charts. When price in the chart goes up, long, when it goes down, sell! K.I.S.S. and no need to pull your hair out interpreting your view of the mess in Europe. The markets don't care about what you think and can do whatever it wants to do. Just follow it.
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Originally Posted by ericwong 
