Thread: GBP and JPY Pairs H1 2013

Originally Posted by Robert Eckert

What makes it a classic case is that the demand was purely aesthetic with no utilitarian element (well, some treated the bulbs as a kind of "onion" but they aren't actually very good eating) so that it was hard to tell what "fundamental" price tulips ought to have (black pearls were once cheap because they were considered weird and defective, but now they are high priced because they are considered rare and exotic; what, exactly, is the "fundamental" price for anything that is valued just for being pretty?)

It just surprises me to no end that this can happen in a market as large and as serious as the currency for a whole continent.

In the case of the euro, the runup started in 2006 and the realization that the price is absurd became widespread by late 2008. Many markets were in unsustainable conditions in late 2008, but they corrected. I mentioned before the case of the pound, where the London Economist pointed out in late 2008 that instead of 1.90's it "ought" to be trading around 1.56, which is the level it hovers around to this day.

I remain very poor at reading the technicals. I re-entered short in the 1.2580's because the charts seemed to be telling me that 1.26 was fierce resistance and that the next high would be a little lower; aware that I could be mistaken, I set a stop-loss at 1.2615 planning that, if it went up through there, I would wait to ~1.2640 to try re-entering again. Reasonable? It hit my stop-loss near the very tip of a long wick to close me out for the maximum possible loss (AGAIN; two Thursdays ago is the last day I ended up plus; I don't risk more than a couple percent of my money, but have been losing that couple percent every freaking day for weeks now), and now I just cannot guess if it is going to make one more upsurge or if I should re-enter now. I decided to play something else instead: USD/CAD gave me a little money when I bet the loonie would give back some of its gains (went my way, but for only a short while); NZD/USD betrayed me horribly: 4H chart said the uptrend was still good, 1M chart showed a little dip and some dojis looking like a long entry, and wham, 30 pip slide against me, now coming back a little but I don't know if I should just kill it or be patient, I'm losing faith in my ability to puzzle out anything.
In EUR/USD if I had just had the ability to leave the original shorts from 1.2995 riding through all the ups and downs, I'd be showing a profit. Of course, not as much of a profit as if I knew when to close it out and re-enter higher to enjoy the same pips again and again, but it has been my efforts to do that which have been so fatal to me; a couple times I've been long, more often I've been flat, or held only small lots of short, guessing it was about to do an updraft, but with no accuracy; large lots short have sometimes ridden down but often ridden up; I am just not getting this, and feel like I am getting worse rather than learning. I think I should just short to the maximum of the money I can afford to throw away, and refuse to even look at a price chart until I am either wiped out or rich.

Why you looking to short in an uptrend, trade with the trend and seeing that you're day trading the short term trend is up, were making higher lows and higher highs , so go long not short, if you draw a trend line on the 1 hour chart you would have seen that at the pivot point was a good time to go long, a small hammer candle stick was formed , secondly you have the pivot acting as support and lastly price had just touched the bottom of the trend line, thats called confluence , you cant ask for much more than that, if the trade then went sour you at least would know its not because of youre ability to read charts, sometimes even the best setups fail. give it a try learn candle sticks , trend lines and S/R thats a good start .

another thing dont use 1min charts its surely the fastest way to go broke, i wait for price to hit support or resistance and then use the 15m or 1hour charts, if a candle say closes at support and forms say a hammer ill go long from that position .

Originally Posted by CodyB

if those that cant understand why the EU has rallied because it is in such terrible trouble, if they would stop looking at the fundamentals and only your charts for awhile they might discover that in the end the fundis are priced into the charts.

In the case of every other currency in the world, that seems to be true, but I don't see that in the euro, not even slightly.

Originally Posted by CodyB

If you cant read them then you'll never make it in the long term, it really is that simple.

Why not begin to look for simple proven S/R..there is major and minor of both. Why not spend your time learning what makes them that way. Why not spend your time watching and learning simple PA. Why not begin to look for HH's and LL's, define reference points and wait for them to form and trade to and from them.

I'm trying, really I am. I tried the simple little indicators you put on the pure-tech thread, went 0-for-5 before finally picking a couple winners. I was looking for when aussie and kiwi would bounce off their upper and lower Bollinger Bands, because I won a few times in a row doing that, and then I went wrong with that indicator often enough to wipe out all prior profits. My instincts seem to believe false signals more often than true ones, but at least on other pairs I have some good days and some bad days. The EUR/USD charts just look very weird to me, and I have only had bad days and horrible days. The only big wins I have had are betting big just before a major news event, without even a stop-loss so a head-fake move doesn't take me out, just sitting there watching with an itchy trigger-finger: in short, precisely the kind of behavior you are far from the first person here to tell me is exactly what not to do. I'm in an exasperated mood right now, so I guess I'll read your "Trading in the Zone" book again (I do like that one).

Originally Posted by Robert Eckert

In the case of every other currency in the world, that seems to be true, but I don't see that in the euro, not even slightly.

I'm trying, really I am. I tried the simple little indicators you put on the pure-tech thread, went 0-for-5 before finally picking a couple winners. I was looking for when aussie and kiwi would bounce off their upper and lower Bollinger Bands, because I won a few times in a row doing that, and then I went wrong with that indicator often enough to wipe out all prior profits. My instincts seem to believe false signals more often than true ones, but at least on other pairs I have some good days and some bad days. The EUR/USD charts just look very weird to me, and I have only had bad days and horrible days. The only big wins I have had are betting big just before a major news event, without even a stop-loss so a head-fake move doesn't take me out, just sitting there watching with an itchy trigger-finger: in short, precisely the kind of behavior you are far from the first person here to tell me is exactly what not to do. I'm in an exasperated mood right now, so I guess I'll read your "Trading in the Zone" book again (I do like that one).

walk away for awhile Robert, open a demo account and practice when you come back but frustration is a horrible thing to have in FX, it leads to revenge trading where you try to make up losses by bigger bets on the next sure trade.
read the book and just stay away for awhile..the market will still be here waiting for you when you are ready again

it will be better to be flat into this weekend unless you are a gambler. Liquidity will be extremely low come Sunday and in such conditions extreme fluctuations are normal.

the latest move on EU took it from R1 to R2, basic PA but in the fast lane

Talk of Coordinated Central Bank Action to support markets in face of Greek election uncertainty.
Anti-bailout Greek candidate losing some ground to pro-austerity candidate.

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

Talk of Coordinated Central Bank Action to support markets in face of Greek election uncertainty.
Anti-bailout Greek candidate losing some ground to pro-austerity candidate.

problem with this is that they never let you know ahead of time. even if true the last one got faded into new lows and this one will most likely be the same result.

Originally Posted by CodyB

problem with this is that they never let you know ahead of time. even if true the last one got faded into new lows and this one will most likely be the same result.

Hey Cody, I strongly agree. We saw a the Dow up as much as 200 points about 20 minutes ago and it quickly faded to being up just 130 points.

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

Hey Cody, I strongly agree. We saw a the Dow up as much as 200 points about 20 minutes ago and it quickly faded to being up just 130 points.

Talk is cheap and I think that unless the powers that be ie ECB, Fed, IMF, BoJ, etc come up with some decisive concrete action, the market is going to challenge all this "jawboning' and yell back "SHOW ME THE MONEY" and drop sharply.

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

Talk is cheap and I think that unless the powers that be ie ECB, Fed, IMF, BoJ, etc come up with some decisive concrete action, the market is going to challenge all this "jawboning' and yell back "SHOW ME THE MONEY" and drop sharply.

I tend to agree, this is not our grandfathers market anylonger and CB's and Governments are no longer trusted

larger time frames for a while have been expecting up move but the news fundies types are ignoring it.....dont get me wrong price is and has been very bearish ,....we all know that ......but the indies have to turn at some point and keeping an eye on larger time frames for the turn on for me such as stochastics i changed tactics and started scalping longs more than shorts....

now mix change in bias as everyone still shortin meaning this pair will eventually go up which it has
now mix short covering in from larger retailers and hedge funders
now mix the latest bullish news of bank interventions combined with tech charts and the result is what we are seeing right now....

i have been hiting indicies and eur all day in and out with 99% of my trades seeing profit
only 1 bad trade which i closed out manually
even though I considor myself an extremely good scalp trader and this I am, i never forget that i am not bigger then the mkt which is why i say time and time again take your profits before the market takes it from you............

this if anything is good sense when we are seeing changes in trend from day to day

tech is now in play mixed with this bullish news could see mass up moves then beginning of next week back to sell offs in my opinion is quite highly possible

be safe and to those trying hardest to profit ....keep your chin up

Originally Posted by asylum

Why you looking to short in an uptrend

OK, here's a question: why do some people think of this as an "uptrend"? To me it looks like we are still in the middle of a massive downtrend, with some countertrends zags back up, but no way should we be going back to the March/April range (maybe that's my bias speaking, but it's also what the large-tf charts look like to me).

Originally Posted by asylum

trade with the trend and seeing that you're day trading the short term trend is up, were making higher lows and higher highs

I was talking about this morning when the 1H chart looked quite otherwise: we had just made a lower high followed by a lower low and then back up but shorter-tf showed the up decelerating before the previous high, and it turned around down-- so I sold, what was wrong with that? Of course I knew the percentage play is sometimes wrong, but I set what I thought was a perfectly reasonable stop-loss, which was exactly the worst place to put it. On the other hand, the NZD/USD play was in an uptrend that had been in place all week, buying on a "dip" that turned out to be the reversal-- or so it looked when it made a big slide, but though it tested my patience I didn't take it out and it's coming back my way, for the moment.

Originally Posted by asylum

if the trade then went sour you at least would know its not because of youre ability to read charts, sometimes even the best setups fail. give it a try learn candle sticks , trend lines and S/R thats a good start .

Candle sticks, trend lines and S/R are what I was looking at. Sometimes I make some money, just not as often as I lose.

Originally Posted by CodyB

This is a scary post if you are trading real money...go back to demo if you are guessing

My demo is what is doing GREAT:



The difference between that and the real account is that I don't make more than a trade a week (the EUR/USD short has been riding since April; it ain't broke so I don't fix it), and it's PURE fundie, no "techie" moves at all.

Originally Posted by CodyB

stop looking at things through such a strong BIAS based on the fundis. Dont even read or look at them for the next month...hard? for you yes but give it a shot.

THIS month? Yeah, that would be very hard. This month is life-or-death: if Europe commits suicide, the US will go down too, and it won't matter whether I have any of that "money" stuff, because guns and canned goods will be the only things that count.

Originally Posted by CodyB

In that month concentrate the same amount of time you put into trying to force your view on the market based on fundis into learning basic technical analysis. I think you'll be amazed at the progress you will make.

I've been studying the tech for three months now, and am amazed at the progress I am not making.

Originally Posted by CodyB

Spend the weekend absorbing the simple truths about ALL markets that are in this PDF.

Will do. You certainly didn't lead me wrong with that Douglas book.

Originally Posted by CodyB

it will be better to be flat into this weekend unless you are a gambler.

So, I'll be short-short-short. Right now, I decided 1.2630 was as high as it is going for now, and re-entered short, leaving entry orders to expand the position if it falls below 1.2600. Maybe I just won't even look again until Monday. EDIT: nope, it's going against me so I stopped out again.

I know you're concerned about me Cody, and I appreciate that, but don't worry. If I wipe out this batch of money, *shrug* it wasn't like I was going to be able to retire on it. If I fail at this, it will be far from the first thing I've failed at, but I don't fail at anything from not putting in enough time to give it my best shot.

[EDIT] BREAKING NEWS: Egyptian court dissolved the Parliament, restoring military rule. The argument was that with no new constitution in place (it was supposed to be finished months ago) and the old one totally disregarded, there was no legal basis for the elections; but the Presidential election is allowed to proceed (no, that doesn't make any sense). Egypt is not an oil state but this adds on to the Syria mess to raise the danger of a new round of Arab uprisings.

Originally Posted by Robert Eckert

OK, here's a question: why do some people think of this as an "uptrend"? To me it looks like we are still in the middle of a massive downtrend, with some countertrends zags back up, but no way should we be going back to the March/April range (maybe that's my bias speaking, but it's also what the large-tf charts look like to me).

I was talking about this morning when the 1H chart looked quite otherwise: we had just made a lower high followed by a lower low and then back up but shorter-tf showed the up decelerating before the previous high, and it turned around down-- so I sold, what was wrong with that? Of course I knew the percentage play is sometimes wrong, but I set what I thought was a perfectly reasonable stop-loss, which was exactly the worst place to put it. On the other hand, the NZD/USD play was in an uptrend that had been in place all week, buying on a "dip" that turned out to be the reversal-- or so it looked when it made a big slide, but though it tested my patience I didn't take it out and it's coming back my way, for the moment.

Candle sticks, trend lines and S/R are what I was looking at. Sometimes I make some money, just not as often as I lose.

My demo is what is doing GREAT:



The difference between that and the real account is that I don't make more than a trade a week (the EUR/USD short has been riding since April; it ain't broke so I don't fix it), and it's PURE fundie, no "techie" moves at all.

THIS month? Yeah, that would be very hard. This month is life-or-death: if Europe commits suicide, the US will go down too, and it won't matter whether I have any of that "money" stuff, because guns and canned goods will be the only things that count.

I've been studying the tech for three months now, and am amazed at the progress I am not making.

Will do. You certainly didn't lead me wrong with that Douglas book.

Perhaps I can answer some of these. Intraday traders can easily look at this being a med term or short term "up" trend. Therefore and being a tech trader myself until i see solid evidence of a turn around on the daily or 4 hour then this will remain bullish for me. Ichi moku has crossed upwards on 4hour and could cross on the daily soon. Anytime you think its a certain trend analyze it with all time frames, and remember that a downtrend on the dailys or weeklys doesnt mean a thing for the other charts. When you analyzing higher highs and lower lows also use other time frames because what makes a LH on a 15 min may not mean anything for the hourly which will take precedence over the smaller time frame.

Last but not least. I tell this to EVERYONE. Just junk your demo account. They NEVER do anything for you but help you understand the platform. Trading with fake money doesnt mean anything. It will never make anyone a better trader once they have learned how to use the platform. You never learn until you start trading with your first micro account. In fact it will probably just give you a false sense of security.

sold 1.26335


manual around 15 points