I understand your Technical analysis points. Thanks for sharing them. I really need to learn more about the charting implications for predicting prices in short term trading and the Technical/Fundamental assessment plays. Seems this market is more technical than fundamental at the moment. I still personally want to short this currency pair big time! I see only trouble ahead but the technical predictions to keep going up bother me as the underlying issues are extremely serious from a valuation standpoint. Thanks for the clarification.
The round number of 1.30 was a tough line as support, and pro-bailout victory in Greece could challenge this line. 1.2960 is close by, after providing some support before the bigger fall.
1.29 provide support in May and is weak resistance now. 1.2873 was a historic line remains strong . 1.2814 is now stronger after being a clear line separating ranges in May 2012.
1.2760 is a pivotal line in the middle of a trading range seen earlier.. It provided support early in the year and is now of high importance. 1.2670 was a double bottom during January and was the high line of the recovery before the Greek elections in June.
1.2623 is the previous 2012 low and remains important despite recent battles over this line. Below, 1.2587 is a clear bottom on the weekly charts but is only a minor line now.
1.2540 served as minor resistance and also support in June 2012. It is stronger now. 1.2440 provided support for the pair at the same time.
It is closely followed by 1.24. It provided some resistance in June 2010 and is now minor support. 1.2286 is a new minor line of support after being the swing low in June 2012.
Further below, 1.2330 is another historical line after being the trough following the global financial meltdown in 2008. The new 2012 low of 1.2288 is minor support now.
1.22 is minor support below, after serving as such in June 2010. 1.2144 is already a very strong line on the downside: it was a clear separator two years ago, when Greece received its first bailout.
The round number of 1.20 is of course highly important in the psychological level. Below, the 2010 trough of 1.1876 is apparent, before the launch value of the euro at 1.17 to the dollar in 1999.
Very little has changed for weeks now, the start is higher only because of the elections
I'll fade all rallies after the market calms down. The EU is still in deep trouble. My previous LT outlook remains the same.
I do have a small long running from late friday
The Asian markets were mostly higher on the week gaining 1.4%. No confirmed uptrends yet.
The European markets were also mostly higher gaining 1.2%. No uptrends either.
The Commodity equity group were all higher gaining 2.5% for the week. No confirmed uptrends here as well.
The DJ World index gained 1.6% on the week, and has yet to confirmed an uptrend.
COMMODITIES
Bonds bounced around all week but ended with a 0.1% gain.
Crude also bounced around quite a bit but lost 0.7%. It made a new low for its downtrend at $81.07 on tuesday.
Gold continues to make some upside progress gaining 2.1% on the week.
The USD continues to looked as though it has topped at 83.54. It lost 1.1% on the week.
Originally Posted by CodyB
The round number of 1.30 was a tough line as support, and pro-bailout victory in Greece could challenge this line. 1.2960 is close by, after providing some support before the bigger fall.
1.29 provide support in May and is weak resistance now. 1.2873 was a historic line remains strong . 1.2814 is now stronger after being a clear line separating ranges in May 2012.
1.2760 is a pivotal line in the middle of a trading range seen earlier.. It provided support early in the year and is now of high importance. 1.2670 was a double bottom during January and was the high line of the recovery before the Greek elections in June.
1.2623 is the previous 2012 low and remains important despite recent battles over this line. Below, 1.2587 is a clear bottom on the weekly charts but is only a minor line now.
1.2540 served as minor resistance and also support in June 2012. It is stronger now. 1.2440 provided support for the pair at the same time.
It is closely followed by 1.24. It provided some resistance in June 2010 and is now minor support. 1.2286 is a new minor line of support after being the swing low in June 2012.
Further below, 1.2330 is another historical line after being the trough following the global financial meltdown in 2008. The new 2012 low of 1.2288 is minor support now.
1.22 is minor support below, after serving as such in June 2010. 1.2144 is already a very strong line on the downside: it was a clear separator two years ago, when Greece received its first bailout.
The round number of 1.20 is of course highly important in the psychological level. Below, the 2010 trough of 1.1876 is apparent, before the launch value of the euro at 1.17 to the dollar in 1999.
Very little has changed for weeks now, the start is higher only because of the elections
I'll fade all rallies after the market calms down. The EU is still in deep trouble. My previous LT outlook remains the same.
America is to provide bailout funds for EU?????????? What a mess.................current news talk today.
In the past, the Fed has offered "currency swaps", injecting dollars into other countries' banking systems while holding a batch of the other currency: late last year they did this with euros (and the deal is that the other currency will be redeemed at the same exchange rate, without regard to how it has changed in the market meanwhile, but with a higher interest rate than big banks usually charge each other). The effect can be almost as much as if the Fed directly bought EUR/USD: that is, some of the European banks getting the dollars will have use for dollars, but some of them will have to convert them to euros, bidding up the price in the market. I think it highly unlikely this time around: the subject came up at the last FOMC meeting during a vote on re-authorizing an ongoing program of currency swaps as needed with Canada and Mexico (Mexico of course needs the help more often than Canada) when Lacker spoke angrily (well, in the context of how Fed-bankers talk to each other, I think it came across as forceful) against the idea of ever intervening in forex markets; moreover, in recent days there have been explicit statements that it is up to the Europeans to solve European problems. The subject will doubtless come up at the next FOMC over the first couple days of the new week; of course, the Fed can always do anything it wants, but I expect them to concentrate on insulating any US banks from possible exposure problems, and I also expect them to continue to hold off on any QE despite the bad recent numbers. My reason for thinking so is that multiple central banks acting at the same time to race to the bottom with their currencies just cancels out, with no good for any of the economies but a general inflation: I note that the Bank of Japan is staying sidelined although this is the part of the cycle when it typically steps in to weaken the yen and keep USD/JPY from sliding too fast; I take it from the statements coming out of Japan that they are giving the Europeans room to depreciate the euro if finally take that decision. A currency swap from the Fed, or an easing to bring down the dollar, would act in the opposite direction and nobody wants to step on Europe's toes right at this time. The best thing for the ECB to do would be to print a trillion euros and drop them out of helicopters-- the track record indicates that they will be terribly reluctant to do such a thing, but their hand may finally be forced.
Originally Posted by biggari
you seem to have gone short near the end of the zig - might have been better to wait at the likely top of the zag, the 50% retracement of the zig, for the market to come to you then gone short with stop above high of zig - if the zig forgets to zag, easy, just don't trade.
zig top - 10239, zig bottom - 10224, zag top and aprox 50% fib ret. - 10232
Yep. After the signal-line cross I needed to wait for the next little up and enter at closer to a top.
Originally Posted by biggari
it did in fact clip the 50% fib (didn't reach support turned resistance of bottom of previous zig) and would have given a nice 1:2 RR trade win - see fx168's signature
brave going short - and with such tight stop - so close to such a strong support line/zone - where big bounces are common
Well I was just trying to make a little scalp for ~30 pips, targeting only 1.02, not as a limit but where I would move the stop down to if it got below that, no expectation it would go as far as 1.01 that afternoon (it didn't quite make 1.02 as it turns out). So, I set the stop-loss as 1/3 the hoped-for gain, too tight under the circumstances. Oh well, experience is the best teacher (as Ben Franklin added: that is why it charges so dearly!)
Originally Posted by biggari
i see you expect the euro to weaken against the usd and the usd to weaken against the cad - interesting
Euro crash is a long-term expectation, regardless if it does another of these crazy upsurges this weekend to whack me again. Loonie has weakened as oil prices retreated, somewhat excessively in my view especially since oil is flattening out and might head back up soon on Middle East troubles. I regard the Bank of Canada as one of the most respectable central banks in the world, and do feel bullish on CAD in the very long term, but it will always be sensitive to the commodity-price jiggles; right now, getting back to parity is about as much as can be expected.
Greek elections: I found out a bit of weirdness. In the first round, you made tickmarks by your favorite candidates, not just the party slate; under a special law for "snap" elections with short campaign times, you are supposed to mark only the party name (the candidates get seats, up to the number of seats the party earns, in the order the party has decided to list them) and many of the voting machines will reject ballots if there are both party tickmarks and also stray marks by the candidate's names, which is reminiscent of the "overvotes" in the Bush-Gore race where people checked the Gore box and also wrote in his name (these, not the "hanging chads" that got fought over, turn out to be the decisive reason why Bush was credited with Florida despite being supported by fewer voters). Which party will get hurt worse by accidental ballot spoilages? That is hard to say, but if the race turns out very close, there may be arguments that it is improper to discard ballots where the intent is clear, only in places where the machines react this way. Or perhaps the undecided voters (unlike Midas I have no source on the Greek streets but get the feel that the Undecided bloc is unusually large still) will break sharply at the last minute and avoid disputes.
Two other elections are happening this weekend: the Egyptian presidential race is not breaking down into violent incidents so far (knock wood) despite the court ruling invalidating the parliamentary race (I am hopeful about political maturity in that country). In France there has been as usual a little intrusion of personal lives into the political: Hollande's current girlfriend tweeted that she wants everyone to vote out Hollande's former girlfriend (and predecessor as Socialist candidate for President) Segolene Royal, who is facing a tough race against a dissident Socialist faction. But the bigger story is the collapse of the National Front after its scary showing in the Presidential race; the prospect of the Front getting a couple dozen seats and preventing either the left or the sane-right from getting a majority (their best showing, 35 seats in 1986, did not stop a majority coalition) faded with the results of the first round, although they are not likely to get 0 seats again either (3 is the latest projection). The UMP candidate (Sarkozy's party) in Moselle caused an uproar with a naked play for Front voters "who share our values" and was repudiated by some leading UMP figures, but the problem is that after Sarkozy quit as party head, they did not choose a new one, and no-one really speaks for the party right now; the upshot is that UMP's reputation was hurt badly, increasing the chances that Socialists win an outright majority, maybe even by a wide margin. Is it good that Hollande will have a strong government rather than a weak one dependent on littler parties for coalition? Certainly better than the paralyzed outcome that was feared a while ago, but the markets might react negatively to a left government with a totally free hand.
Doing a late nite run here.. Eur 8 hrs showing a possible inv HNS and a tgt of 2840ish which also is the lvl most likely finishing this correction to the upside if the downside trend needs to resume out..
EUR 4 hrs is showing a possible bear flag with 2770ish has range top for the Monday..
Will find out once Grexit is finalized..........
As said will find out..
On a separate note; I'll be popping less and less or will do if time permits for have extra workload meaning less time to do updates..
heck there are alot of gems here and so I be browsing and checking them out whenever I can..
USD on the other has broken it's HNS and went down nicely and quietly...
Some more room to the downside and let's see if it can hit the mark all the way to 9910 or will be backing up from the supp coming up on it soon..
Patience is virtue. The sooner we learn this all, sooner we can start walking to the bank. Good Luck to all of us
The trick is to wait the price meet ur limits, instead of one jumping in.. however scalps is a totally different scenario and is not everyone's cup of tea
Disclaimer: I'm not at all suggesting trades when by either posting the graphs, or my entries. You can view it, but in the end you have to use your own logic and approach, as there is no certainty about this uncertain market...
1 New Democracy wins – up and then down: This is the expected result according to rumors just before the elections. In this case, EUR/USD is expected to open much higher on this favorable results, with a big weekend gap. However, there is a good chance that the initial cheer will be quickly replaced with a downfall, as seen in the reaction to the Spanish bailout announcement. Why? Greece is in deep trouble, already missing the targets of the second bailout. It also suffers from significant withdrawals from banks, deferring of tax payments, an energy crisis and a shortage of medicine. And let’s not forget, Spain is in deep trouble, and it’s the euro-zone’s fourth largest economy.
2 SYRIZA wins – down and perhaps up: This scenario has higher chances, given the momentum the party has in Greece. In this case, EUR/USD will likely open much lower. However, also this downfall will not necessarily last. G-20 leaders are meeting in Mexico from Monday and central bankers also hinted on willingness to act. Up to now, leaders have failed to stabilize markets, and the recent tension between France and Germany comes at a very bad timing. The world needs leadership now. Hopefully, the higher chances of the dreaded Grexit might push them to action. Rumors about coordinated action to flood the markets can stabilize the markets on their own, without real action.
3 Hung parliament – steady grind down: This is what happened in the first round of elections. It will take time until all the votes are counted. Coalition talks will also take time. During this time, markets will likely be very worried and Greeks will continue withdrawing funds and avoiding tax payments. Also world leaders will await a Greek coalition before they action. EUR/USD is likely to open lower, and chop its way down as time passes by.
have a look at the USDX weekly close candle
1 New Democracy wins – up and then down: This is the expected result according to rumors just before the elections. In this case, EUR/USD is expected to open much higher on this favorable results, with a big weekend gap. However, there is a good chance that the initial cheer will be quickly replaced with a downfall, as seen in the reaction to the Spanish bailout announcement. Why? Greece is in deep trouble, already missing the targets of the second bailout. It also suffers from significant withdrawals from banks, deferring of tax payments, an energy crisis and a shortage of medicine. And let’s not forget, Spain is in deep trouble, and it’s the euro-zone’s fourth largest economy.
Very interesting article. Had to share with everyone here. Good assessment CodyB.
Where are all the euros going? - FT.com
2 SYRIZA wins – down and perhaps up: This scenario has higher chances, given the momentum the party has in Greece. In this case, EUR/USD will likely open much lower. However, also this downfall will not necessarily last. G-20 leaders are meeting in Mexico from Monday and central bankers also hinted on willingness to act. Up to now, leaders have failed to stabilize markets, and the recent tension between France and Germany comes at a very bad timing. The world needs leadership now. Hopefully, the higher chances of the dreaded Grexit might push them to action. Rumors about coordinated action to flood the markets can stabilize the markets on their own, without real action.
3 Hung parliament – steady grind down: This is what happened in the first round of elections. It will take time until all the votes are counted. Coalition talks will also take time. During this time, markets will likely be very worried and Greeks will continue withdrawing funds and avoiding tax payments. Also world leaders will await a Greek coalition before they action. EUR/USD is likely to open lower, and chop its way down as time passes by.
have a look at the USDX weekly close candle
This is the link from my machine....Hope it works this time.
tried to register with FT - i got as far as having to paste something to my browser - what??? - dont know what that means and can only assume its a firewall designed to only lets geeks through
good analysis is easy
making money from your analysis is a whole new ball game
tried to register with FT - i got as far as having to paste something to my browser - what??? - dont know what that means and can only assume its a firewall designed to only lets geeks through
Sorry about having trouble with the link. I signed up for the "free" account to get to the article. It was pretty annoying but I did prevail in the end. Keep trying. Good article in my view! Any Greek Election news yet?
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Originally Posted by CodyB 
trying to post this link.......aaahhhhhhh!!!!!!!
