Regards...

GBP/JPY has ranged from about 118.82 to 151.56, some 3,274 pips, for 09'
Let X , be price, a Random Variable, probability p=1/2, movement up or down, assume one knows not the next move. Then the expectation for GBP/JPY is
about 135.19. A simple model.
IF year's high(low) is broken then the expec moves up(down).

Thus, the furthest above(below) the expec the bettter a short(buy), since one would expect, price to return to it's expectation(regardless of ema,sma, macd.....).

One (hell of a) trade......Jan 21 to April 6 , I seek moves like this...for each
$25.00 turns to $3,274.00+

http://sites.google.com/site/napatanpics/Home/4x-trends

Again...
Regards.

Low, so far as of 11:16pm est. 1.3176

Has traded(range) some 1,440 pips for 09.

GBPJPY & GBPAUD pairs give alot more bang/buck

Regards...

GBPAUD broke years trading range Sunday evening
closed short, went long after sun 5pm
Sun low about 4.30pm, 2.0052

New (price)expectation GBPAUD 2.1457
Seen some 800+ pips on GBPAUD
GBPNZD didnt break years low, came close,
1,300+ pips since.....sun....
Play the expectation....I seek moves like this.
Trade less, Gain MORE!

Again ...
Regards

Real-Time Forex Quotes

Is that a glitch eurjpy @ 124+...Below expected value...?

Yen-Trend ?(Napatanpics)?

How are you coming up with the targets? What time frame are you using?

Thanks and happy pipping!

Hello & Regards...fellow Traders

What I do is...myself for example..
I'm locked in a box(room) I know not what pushes/pulls on a pair.
I dont know who, what ,where ,why ,when ...how...some big wig, Central Bank, commercial trader...etc hits buy/sell button.
all I see is a pair I'm watching move up & down all day long. & I'm loosing.
So I said what can I do? This appears random(from my point of view, frame of reference)

So The idea came to me...why not asume a pair "acts" like a random variable
or a random walk! I let the probability of a move up or down be the same p=1/2. Then compute the expected value. So this is a Binomial Random Variable I'm using in this model. Next I take some time interval(since 09")
see the range over that interval ,how high & how low a pair trades.
Subtract low from high & this is the "range" for that interval.

By way of example the GBPNZD has traded(range) 4,503 pips for 09'
since p=1/2 movement up/down then the expectation(an average) is half way the range. So the expected value for GBPNZD is ...
Low + half of range i.e. 2.4444+(2251-pips) =2.6695 expected value.

I tried it on FSLR(a solar stock), The Dow
, Gold & oil...
I can do alot more but it only me & a college friend of mine working on this website & trading(for a living) at the same time.
If & when many people see that this is a valuable tool, then maybe they donate, even a penny (or more) & i'll hire more people & we can put up more tools & better the global economy!...lol
So ther farthest above(below) the better the short(buy) since one would "expect" the price to return to The Expectation.

This I feel is Stronger than the moving averages. as a frame of rederence
Home ?(Napatanpics)?
Yen-Trend ?(Napatanpics)?
FX Trends ?(Napatanpics)?

Feel free to use it....& good luck on you trades(1 & all)
Send mail anytime..
Tanutamen, Napatanpics

ps ...last fri 4/24/09 just b4 close ...I bought GBPNZD...
Sun evening I was up 300+ pips....

thats nuthig special i buy gbp aud at 2.01 its obvious it will go up 1000 to 2000 pips and gbp nzd at 2.51 at its support level .. nuthing is random everything has a meaning u cant just trade randomly lloosing thousands of pips if it goes in the wrong side the gbp jpy will never hit 135 thats for sure and yeah u never know what a year high is what if the gbp goto 165 ?? will u hold upto 2000 pip negetive ?? then think its a high and make probablity then start looosing .. this is insane .. sure gbp aud have a support at 2.01 which it did broke but came back into its channel quickly so it means it will go up .. but gbp jpy has broken its resistance so it will go up

FSLR has ranged from about $23.5 to $317 since IPO, fall 06. Let X , be price, a Random
Variable, probability p=1/2, movement up or down, assume one knows not the next move.
The Expectation for X, price, is about $170.25, came within some $11.00 of this..., on 3/26/09!
*Crossed Expec.& hit $198.00 ;5/1/09!!! What did you EXPECT?

By way of extension, we see expectation for D. Jones Industrial Average at: 7,096.44, not bad!
Gold, $638.20 & Crude oil $74.84 for expected values.

(IMF & Cent Bks selling gold, go buy...lol); oil inching up!



Many wrote the Solar stock FSLR off it'll never come back.

I ve held 5,000+ pips negative(is your pocket that deep, or do you have that skill & or faith to hold & close GREEN. Trade however you want, how many pips did you close this weeK, is it 4,000+(Like me?) I doubt that. I tend to think outside the PYRAMID!....What do you know of Random Variables.
Continue using your laggard indicators. You have no over-standing of the expected value as applied to trading. It's a novel IDEA!

Yahoo! Message Boards - First Solar, Inc. - *FSLR (price) EXPECTATION, SINCE IPO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I SEE YOU NOWHERE ON THAT THREAD...heh heh he...

Again Regards!
Home ?(Napatanpics)?
Tanutamen!

Expect The (Un)Expected Value

18-Apr-09 09:41 pm(FSLR mess bd)

I didnt expect it when the dow had record close in oct-07 14,000+
That it would fall to 6,000+, but then the expectation WAS, as it is now 7,096

Crude blitz to under 150...the expectation formed then, at 74.00, collapsed to relative low & now inching up. I didnt expect it.

Gold brushed 1,000.00 everyone thinking inflation, thus safe haven...whats the expec $638.00. IMF & Central Banks are selling Gold...inflation control...Send that yellarfellar back to the expec...while many buying thinking otherwise(higher highs)

EURUSD expected value formed 3/25/09 at 1.3075...100 day moving average was at 1.2700+ THEN!
on fri 4/17/09 eurusd breaks 100 ma(to downside), which was at 1.3070(wow only now!) some analyst yells" it broke 100 ma, no crap sherlock expected value was telling you to look for it...1 month+ ago-B4.... heh heh heh

Moral ...
EXPECTED VALUE is more POWERFUL than any moving average, macd, rsi...bolinger...even kitchen sink. or $12,000 trading program...which tells you when to buy/sell that some WASTE $ on...heh heh he



When you dont KNOW "arbo" ...you just dont know!
WHO SAYS... "TO TRADE RANDOMLY"... No one says that.
That is not what a R. Variable is....Ignorance & arrogance ....ABOUNDS
heh heh he....

. scalper make 2000 % per month what can be better then that . heh random player ... the market always move in the side in which it has too and there is a reason behind it it never moves randomly .. . ur childish year high and year low 50 % retracement wont work . gbp jpy already hit 148 and eurp jpy 132 .. how poor thinking of urs .. thinking like that it will sink like olden times . forex is not that easy ...
when the facts change, i change my mind . what do u do sir ?

expect the unexpect thats ryte .. trade what u see not what u expect .. thats more like it , admit the facts of the market

and yes mr i am sorry for offensing u

Abro...Marhaba....salem ...,kiefa

When GBPJPY is sittin' at 135.xx
I'll get back to you.
Then promise me..., you call me...

SHOTCALLER.

Again ...,as usual...heh heh he..
Regards.
Tanutamen

when tthe gbp jpy will trun bearish i will be sure with u . but still time will tell about the 135 specific target ... i will sure short it but that target is too far

Anyone have any thoughts on the upcomming european market (or lack of). It is closed today right? I have a trade setup pending a break of a decent resistance line. I feel like it may be better to stay out for now, for fear that after the break, there is a higher probability than normal , that price could slip back below the line, due to not much liquidity in the european session.

The markets are closed ?? Joke.

Tanutamen, why your target is 135?? maybe 145 is more scalped ?? don't u think ?