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08-19-2009, 11:40 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wan0903
haha...im also in short position and target around ur figure (FE 61.8 at 154.02).. hopefully it will go to that b4 this afternoon uk retail number..
happy trading
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awesome. lets hope it goes down. |
08-19-2009, 11:50 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cool_fx
Okie , WAN ... if we go by your 1-2-3-4-5 downward theory. i made this EW chart and combined the Fib Retracements and Fib Expansions and Downward sloping line.
lemme know what you think?
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erm.. as far market going right now.. it is still valid and in a dwnward mood.. but cool.. my FE is quite high than urs bcoz I draw it in the middle of the candle, not exactly at the end of the candle to minimise risk.. anyway.. at least it give us an indicator what next will be happen.. 
yes.. i assume price need to break ur trendline to make an upward momentum.. but i will not take a risk to make a buy position until it give us a clear indicator (esp on fibo retracement, (wave 2) if it is an upward direction).. as far im concern.. current g/j made a new high for today but lower than yersterday high.. so like i said b4,, im assume that market will make a new low lower than yesterday low..
please adjust ur indicator along with market move right now..
happt trading... |
08-20-2009, 12:11 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wan0903
erm.. as far market going right now.. it is still valid and in a dwnward mood.. but cool.. my FE is quite high than urs bcoz I draw it in the middle of the candle, not exactly at the end of the candle to minimise risk.. anyway.. at least it give us an indicator what next will be happen..
yes.. i assume price need to break ur trendline to make an upward momentum.. but i will not take a risk to make a buy position until it give us a clear indicator (esp on fibo retracement, (wave 2) if it is an upward direction).. as far im concern.. current g/j made a new high for today but lower than yersterday high.. so like i said b4,, im assume that market will make a new low lower than yesterday low..
please adjust ur indicator along with market move right now..
happt trading... |
My only concern with the downward momentum is the RESISTANCE ZONE starting from 153.70 to 152.40 (the lows frm late july). if that breaks than it will be a whole new chapter :-) |
08-20-2009, 12:23 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cool_fx
My only concern with the downward momentum is the RESISTANCE ZONE starting from 153.70 to 152.40 (the lows frm late july). if that breaks than it will be a whole new chapter :-)
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yup.. u are right.. that why i said it quite easy to reach FE 61.8 (154.02) and then bonce a bit to do correction and the go to FE 100 (152.80) if it is still in a downward mood.. .. then definetly it will bouncing to make correction.. sometime it take a time for market to reach FE 161.8 if there are still in the downward momentum.. usually when market reach FE 161.8, it mean its complete for wave B.. and don't open any short position from that.. |
08-20-2009, 12:38 AM
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Nikkei up 1.13% - this is helping to keep GBP strong.. UK open may follow if FTSE opens higher on the back of Asia..
__________________
Money without brains is always dangerous....
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08-20-2009, 01:21 AM
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Just a quick question from an EW beginner. In the count 1-2-3-4-5 down to 153.63 that we currently have, wave 5 bottom is higher (albeit slightly) than wave 3 bottom. Is it a cause for invalidation or it doesn't matter too much?
Last edited by toubo.jp; 08-20-2009 at 01:27 AM..
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08-20-2009, 01:36 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by toubo.jp
Just a quick question from an EW beginner. In the count 1-2-3-4-5 down to 153.63 that we currently have, wave 5 bottom is higher (albeit slightly) than wave 3 bottom. Is it a cause for invalidation or it doesn't matter too much?
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hye toubo..
not sure about that bcoz im used my 3 principle for my EW (previous post).. maybe an expert here like patryk, xiao cmellon and others will answer your ques later.. anyway.. im using another indicator which is Fibo Fan to determine wave 4,5, A,B and C.. as long as the wave 1,2 and 3 is still valid.. if not.. i consider my count is not valid ..to do Fibo Fan, i need a confirm wave 3 first then i can determine what next will happen..
anyway.. it just an answer from the biginner also..
happy trading |
08-20-2009, 01:55 AM
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Thanks, let's see what the others have to say about that too
entered a short at 156.2, stop 157.6, target 153.9
Put a smaller than usual amount as the Asian stock markets are pretty high today, making me warry of a break higher. |
08-20-2009, 02:11 AM
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So far I have been trading this on the H4 and D1 charts using the Semafors as a guide to peaks and troughs. It has followed it correctly so far - something I mentioned yesterday (on the forum that vanished!) that the chart just didn't look right.
On the H4 chart I posted a screen grab of the very big doji spike (at 153.6) which I thought may cause a surge upwards - I was so confident I went to bed and woke up this morning at 156.2 !
The lesson I am trying to learn from all this is that the market will do what the market will do and observing the current truth of the situation sometimes helps when theories and predicitons are getting in the way. I have fought the market in the past and lost out, because I was convinced of a pattern it would follow and was trying to force that to happen.
Having said that I can't say how much further this rise from the doji spike will be, but it was certainly a classic sign of bulls and bears colliding - something to watch for in future when in doubt.
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08-20-2009, 03:03 AM
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Doji juste closed on 1h chart, with stocastic in overbought territory (and the declining resistance tested but not exactly broken yet...) Whatever that mean  |
08-20-2009, 03:11 AM
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what can i say.. just hold ur short position... i will post my update chart later...
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08-20-2009, 03:12 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by toubo.jp
Doji juste closed on 1h chart, with stocastic in overbought territory (and the declining resistance tested but not exactly broken yet...) Whatever that mean |
It wasn't at totally flat doji, but may cause a fall - London just opened too, so we'll see how it goes from here. It needs to be followed by a reversed candle in the next hour to be a sign of going back down.
On my chart it is a (2) semafor, not a (3) at the top so it may just retrace a short distance to 155 or just below. If it does pick up speed we could be heading to retest our old friend 153.
Last edited by clocksley; 08-20-2009 at 03:18 AM..
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08-20-2009, 03:30 AM
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hye..
this is my latest chart.. as market are not certain yet.. i am not open any new position... just hold my short with tight stoploss.. anyway.. if market break downward trendline.. my target is at FE 61.8 (154.50).. if it is break above that trendline... possibility it will go further up to 157.02 ( my resistance 1)..
anyway.. i will not open any buy position as yet b4 i get a clear picture what will happen b4 and after UK retail number...
happy trading
Last edited by wan0903; 08-20-2009 at 03:37 AM..
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08-20-2009, 04:12 AM
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20 min to go for the uk sales---. Cmon, drop so i can get some money out of my short at 156.2 |
08-20-2009, 04:37 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JTownMike
20 min to go for the uk sales---. Cmon, drop so i can get some money out of my short at 156.2 |
Down from 1.2% to 0.4% - expected was 0.3% so bad but not as bad as expected, but almost! |
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