Discuss the GBP/USD with a DailyFX Analyst - Page 122 - DailyFX Forex Forum

Tmac · #**1816** (**permalink**) 01-13-2008, 09:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sledge

I think I stated some info on the Rate Decision and how it would plunge right before and then shoot up (Which it did.) This was the perfect set-up to hook unsuspecting folks into a rash of shorts. Sounds as if you were smart and took your profits and ran- You are more wise than most. As they say Bulls make money, Bears make Money- Pigs get slaughtered.

I DID state that the end of the bear run was NEAR-if this is the post you are referring too. The ride down to 1.9482 was just the icing on the cake- it let the strong holders buy longs at bargain prices while the masses think the trend would last forever- they will now be holding the bag and the cycle will continue.

As you must be well aware- when a trend is dying and the reality of the trend to come is set in stone- you will get speculation and prices (in this particular case) will still drop- It is like in a bar at 3:00 AM when all the people have struck out and are looking for ANYONE to take home!

Give it this week and at weeks end- flame me until I'm dead if this last Friday's bottom of 1.9482 wasn't it for the near term.
Sledge

P.S. If indeed you did make 280 Pips- You are GOD! My first post was 1-9-08--that day the high was 1.9764, if you had brass balls and rode it down to the 1.9482 bottom- that is 282 PIPS so you must be God to know the exact moment of peak and the exact moment of bottom (given your broker gives you a 2 pip spread) You must have shorted EXACTLY at 1.9764 and closed out EXACTLY at 1.9482. If so- I'd sell your strategy for $1,000,000 a pop and retire from trading all together- you have indeed found the HOLY GRAIL!

actually it was shorted a 9806 as I posted before when I ask for charts to show why you thought not to short it as that is not what I was seeing at all. I got out a bit early, about 50 pips early and no its a 4 pip spread. no need to be a smartass about it and talk of a holy grail and God, it was a good trade with a decent strategy helped by some good reading and a bit of luck made when you were telling everyone to not short the pound..sorry if I rufled a few feathers there, my balls are the same as yours but I guess my charts are not.
PS. I've been short the G/J since 227.85
add another +68 short G/U this morning and I am off to work

hypnos63 · #**1817** (**permalink**) 01-14-2008, 08:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Antonio Sousa

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at 1.47 as nearly 60% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.49 as 60% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 5.3% higher than yesterday and 16.9% stronger since last week. Short positions are 6.3% higher than yesterday and 14.7% weaker since last week. Open interest is 5.7% stronger than yesterday and 11.9% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD losses.

For information on an FXCM Managed Account that takes advantage of the SSI, please review our Sentiment Program at: http://www.fxcmmanagedfunds.com/ or call +1 646-432-2968.

hi i got the below for jamie seattle tip on the GBP/USD, can you expalin what he means and how i can implement this strategy/advice. is he suggesting a sell order with a t/p of 1.9150 i have emailed him on other issues but he is understandablyquite busy. i would nevertheless appreciate any help with this.

thanks

Strategy: Bearish, move risk to 1.9848 (from 2.0101), target 1.9150

studentforex · #**1818** (**permalink**) 01-14-2008, 10:17 AM

Gbp not look like to Break todays high 1.9650, any suggesion to everyone

studentforex · #**1819** (**permalink**) 01-14-2008, 10:47 AM

Gbp not look like to Break todays high 1.9650, and move toward 750 or 800any suggesion to everyone

hypnos63 · #**1820** (**permalink**) 01-14-2008, 11:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by studentforex

Gbp not look like to Break todays high 1.9650, and move toward 750 or 800any suggesion to everyone

yes you are right, it will not break tdays high as it opened just below the daily pivot GMT london time.

studentforex · #**1821** (**permalink**) 01-14-2008, 11:15 AM

It means next day we see price move toward and break 480 support and go lower to180 first,in this week , befor pullback towards 1.99s

4xis2ez · #**1822** (**permalink**) 01-14-2008, 11:52 AM

Head and Shoulders forming on intraday charts.

hypnos63 · #**1823** (**permalink**) 01-14-2008, 11:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by studentforex

It means next day we see price move toward and break 480 support and go lower to180 first,in this week , befor pullback towards 1.99s

well i wouldn't go that far. i'm a newbie too. unless you are making a prescriptive statment and not asking a question?

Antonio Sousa · #**1824** (**permalink**) 01-14-2008, 12:20 PM

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at 1.61 as nearly 62% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.51 as 60% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 8.6% higher than yesterday and 6.1% stronger since last week. Short positions are 2.1% higher than yesterday and 4.2% weaker since last week. Open interest is 6.0% stronger than yesterday and 15.3% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD losses.

Source: FXCM Execution Desk

For information on an FXCM Managed Account that takes advantage of the SSI, please review our Sentiment Program at: http://www.fxcmmanagedfunds.com/ or call +1 646-432-2968.

For historical data and the latest charts based on the SSI please visit http://www.dailyfx.com/story/special...140917987.html

John Kicklighter · #**1825** (**permalink**) 01-14-2008, 12:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hypnos63

hi i got the below for jamie seattle tip on the GBP/USD, can you expalin what he means and how i can implement this strategy/advice. is he suggesting a sell order with a t/p of 1.9150 i have emailed him on other issues but he is understandablyquite busy. i would nevertheless appreciate any help with this.

thanks

Strategy: Bearish, move risk to 1.9848 (from 2.0101), target 1.9150

Hello hypnos63,

The strategy suggests he has a short bias with a working stop that has been moved up from 2.0101 to 1.9848 and a target of 1.9150.

As for using his outlook as a trade, that is completely up to your style of trading and the strategy you use. Often times he offers levels that are far from spot, so the losses could be substantial if you simply take a standard lot without your own criteria in there. Also, since his projections are long term and they do not change from day to day, it isn't wise to just take a market entry with the stop and limit that he projects as you may be have come across the tail end or beginning of the strategy he has laid out.

It is best to have your own trading rules and strategy in place and use his levels as guides for stops and profit targets.

manglanimanish · #**1826** (**permalink**) 01-14-2008, 01:11 PM

hello
if anyone can throw some light to what is mentioned below which i picked up from the front page of the website, we would greatly appreciate it,
especially the terms like commercial and speculative positions, and
forming a bottom
thanks in advance in helping to broaden our perspective on this.
regards/
manish

GBP: The % of total commercial positions that are long measured through a 52 week percentile is at 96 and the % of total speculative positions that are long measured through a 52 week percentile is at 0. Cable is at a bearish sentiment extreme and should bottom very soon (maybe this week).

Signal: Forming a bottom

John Kicklighter · #**1827** (**permalink**) 01-14-2008, 01:12 PM

There seems to be some pretty fierce debate on whether or not 1.95 will hold. Personally, I'm holding off on making predictions (as this has led to considerable losses in the past) and I'm working out the best scenario for confirmation to either the upside or downside.

Overall, I'm looking at the considerable confluence of fibs between 1.9500 and 1.9600 as a general signal for market direction. To the short side, I'm not comfortable in trying to short with a stop entry order on a possible move below 1.95 since this pair is naturally volatile, will be increasingly volatile if we are testing a bottom and there is incredible event risk due to earnings and a long list of fundamental indicators. So, I will try to keep an eye on this pair and look for a close below 1.95 on the higher time frame charts.

To the upside, I will follow a similar strategy of avoiding stop entry orders and watch for a confirmation move above 1.9650 on this side of the trade. Regardless of the direction, I think there is plenty of room for this pair to move and provide considerable profit targets.

Nima · #**1828** (**permalink**) 01-14-2008, 03:16 PM

I think this count can be better.this show the target approximately at 1.93. it has a risk to move near 1.98.

Nayantara · #**1829** (**permalink**) 01-14-2008, 09:54 PM

[quote=manglanimanish;143757]hello
if anyone can throw some light to what is mentioned below which i picked up from the front page of the website, we would greatly appreciate it,
especially the terms like commercial and speculative positions, and
forming a bottom
thanks in advance in helping to broaden our perspective on this.
regards/
manish

Hello,

I think the following link will be useful for you. Try the Keyword Search in this site. I found this site very useful to clear the doubts in forex terminology.

http://www.investopedia.com

Have a nice day.

Nayantara

hypnos63 · #**1830** (**permalink**) 01-14-2008, 10:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by John Kicklighter

Hello hypnos63,

The strategy suggests he has a short bias with a working stop that has been moved up from 2.0101 to 1.9848 and a target of 1.9150.

As for using his outlook as a trade, that is completely up to your style of trading and the strategy you use. Often times he offers levels that are far from spot, so the losses could be substantial if you simply take a standard lot without your own criteria in there. Also, since his projections are long term and they do not change from day to day, it isn't wise to just take a market entry with the stop and limit that he projects as you may be have come across the tail end or beginning of the strategy he has laid out.

It is best to have your own trading rules and strategy in place and use his levels as guides for stops and profit targets.

thanks. i thought that would be the case. still i had to double check in case i was missing out on something else.