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06-14-2007, 08:48 AM
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DailyFX Analyst
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Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 179
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by RISKEE
Attachment 6787
Well ,Hi Richard , No I didn't manage to gain profits on that trade as My SL was at 9760 , However I went Short again at 9767, TGT was 9708 as I didn't expect the 9700 support break , As I noticed that pair is Crawling and couldn't withstand further upward momentum + Expected Good US Spending Numbers , and evaluated the market risk would cause the pair to fall before another leg up is confirmed.( Thanks for Asking 
Now, I see the pair in side movement after nice pullup from today's lows , forming a Beautiful wick , which indicates pair Bullishness , However last time I posted the chart I said " We need to clear 9750 + A close above 38.2% at 9743 to confirm upward momentum " , we DID break the 9750 region , BUT couldn't close above 38.2% , Now inorder to confirm my point of view , We need to see a close above 38.2% and a brak of 50%.
I Expect Bullish bias ( short-term ) , But will not enter market until a direction have been cleared. GooD Luck
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Great analysis on the market. Looks like that 1.9750 is still in play, plenty of sellers there, but considering the quiet market it might not be saying much at this point. With pound bullishness still the overall theme in the market, I'm holding fast to a play up to the 1.9825 figure in the next couple of sessions, betting on a bounce off of that 1.9640 support in the 60-minute.
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06-14-2007, 08:49 AM
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DailyFX Analyst
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Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 179
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by nik1033
GBP/USD can easily fall down today till 1.9655-60
Lets wait and see.
GL
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Great call....looks like the sterling wicked out at 1.9655 in the overnight. Were you able to buy into the move lower? |
06-14-2007, 08:51 AM
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DailyFX Analyst
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Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 179
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by RISKEE
Attachment 6797
Hey guyz , we are very close to the trend seen above on chart , entered long at 9680 , TGT 9800 (where the 20day MA is) , well Hope that the trend would hold as a break of this trend is catastrophic for the pair.
Hourlies seem a bit O/S , this would help a bounce to 9700 region once more , I wold flat on a failure at 9750. GOOD LUCK
NOTE : SL at 9640
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Good placement on the stop. I might watch out for any force outs in the short term, everyone is probably watching that level too...makes it every more the market's attention. Holding long and strong as well RISKEE. |
06-14-2007, 08:53 AM
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DailyFX Analyst
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Join Date: Jun 2005
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by 4xis2ez
Here's how the cycle has worked out so far this week as seen in the attachment. Shorting the 8 high which is due now may be a good trade.
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Just out of curiosity....is this incorporating room for stop placement or would this be more reference per individual risk management applications? |
06-14-2007, 11:03 AM
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This is an update on the GBPUSD structure. The decline from 1.9780 is either a small b wave or a small wave 2. We will watch the rally to see if a bearish opportunity exists. A rally that stops at 1.9814 will offer a bearish opportunity.
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06-14-2007, 10:50 PM
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My system is giving signal that cable will go up today till 1.9750 at least...a little bit unexpected ... 
Lets wait and see...
GL & GT |
06-15-2007, 02:07 AM
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I want to post a new forum, why it can't
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06-15-2007, 03:28 AM
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by nik1033
My system is giving signal that cable will go up today till 1.9750 at least...a little bit unexpected ...
Lets wait and see...
GL & GT |
Cable certainly appears to be basing but a lot will depend on the slew of data out later today. |
06-15-2007, 05:13 AM
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From a technical perspective, the GBPUSD definitely looks like it's not willing to "give" its 8-month trendline without a fight. A couple of tests in the past few days have held the line, with a 50.0 percent Fib of the recent bull wave likewise providing support.
The only thing keeping me from plowing into a low-risk GBPUSD long remains speculative positioning, which is net-long the GBPUSD. Though it is only very marginally so, this typically coincides with GBPUSD weakness.
Likewise significant, this morning's CPI data will cause some pretty serious volatility in the markets--making a medium-term play less attractive ahead of the report. We'll see what happens, but it should be a fun ride regardless.
On an unrelated note, check out this week's Trading the News report on DailyFX on the CPI report. The past three instances of the inflation data have proven profitable from a post-news trading perspective, and we hope that today's will be no exception.
Happy trading.
Last edited by David Rodriguez; 06-15-2007 at 05:14 AM..
Reason: Typo
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06-15-2007, 04:15 PM
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Profit Booked !!
Hey Guyz , Hope it was a Good week for everyone , I closed My postion at 9770 ,as I said before Flat a Failure at 9750 , But I took the chance to see where the pair can go after the break of 9750 , didn't wait for 9800 coz it seemed hard to be touched this week .
Now the trend held perfectly supporting the pair , and we do have a WEEKLY close above 38.2% 9743 ( we closed at 9747 ) , So Would rather see a Bullish extent after clearing the 50% at 9779 ( we hit that 3 times without even a Break ), So this mark is Important in strengthing the bullish momentum .
Next week , I am still Bullish on the pair , prefer to Buy dips than sell rallies , Will wait for asian session on monday for things to clear up a little bit .
Hope to see more comments and more analysis in this thread for the sake of all of us traders.
I wanna thank the FX moderators and analysts for sharing their point of views with us , Guyz.......Keep Up the good work  |
06-15-2007, 05:48 PM
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Great analysis JAMIE...I totally agree
Hey Guyz, Just wanted to say that I totally agree with Jamie's analysis On usd/yen , Please notice that chart , the Monthly RSI is well supported by a rising trendline , the pair is not yet overbought , notice the channel we're in , the MACD is moving upwards , but I think we could face a tough resistance at 125.73 , a clear of that would open thae way to 127.97......Very nice work jamie. 
Note: This is a LONG term analysis , will post short-term later.
Another Note : All the fx Moderators are Highly advanced technical Analysists , better take their advice.....or even think using their way of view.GOOD LUCK
Last edited by RISKEE; 06-15-2007 at 05:51 PM..
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06-17-2007, 10:32 PM
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Cable to go up today till 1.9815-20...
GL & GT
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06-18-2007, 02:05 AM
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Target reached so far |
06-18-2007, 03:11 AM
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Nice trade, nik.
As for the short-term direction of the GBP, I think it may be lining up for a nice short.
You can check out Jamie's analysis on the elliott wave structure of the move here.
Personally, I think that the 61.8% Fib of the recent bear wave will hold as resistance. The hourly chart shows that price appreciation has slowed at this level, increasing the likelihood of a top. Staying below this level eyes a retest of the previously mentioned rising trendline at approximately 1.9680. Viable stops may have to be a bit loose, however, with nearest viable levels at a minor falling trendline above 1.9910. |
06-18-2007, 09:14 AM
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GBP
Hey folks ,short closed from 9836 TGT 9811 , Will go long on a bounce off 9800 , The direction is still up , keep in mind 3 things Now :
1) A strong trend that has been tested a few days ago .
2) M4 Figures are expected to be very good numbers.
3) Market volatility for the week's risk event BOE minutes ( expect a 25bp hike ) . Be careful with short term shorts , GOOD LUCK
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