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07-08-2008, 10:49 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by smartboy
what do u think ?
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I'd say GBP will break 1.965 tomorrow, LOL. Still in bearish camp.
If today's closing is doji or around 1.97, then I would be more confident. |
07-08-2008, 10:56 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cmellon
I'd say GBP will break 1.965 tomorrow, LOL. Still in bearish camp.
If today's closing is doji or around 1.97, then I would be more confident.
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I think GBP/USD will rise up at least 160 points before interest rate date .
I guess it may hit 1.99 by tomorrow , then retreat for a while after that move up again to break the 2.00 level . |
07-08-2008, 11:08 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by smartboy
I think GBP/USD will rise up at least 160 points before interest rate date .
I guess it may hit 1.99 by tomorrow , then retreat for a while after that move up again to break the 2.00 level .
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BOE is expected to keep the rate steady. If anything, traders will speculate BOE to reduce rate, not to increase it, due to the terrible economic condition. IMO, this interest rate event risk should not give reasons for traders to build up long. If traders are long, the reasons are something else.
D1 chart is telling me it should go down to 1.95 - 1.96, and not yet go back up to 2.0 at this level. Fundamentally it is supported too since U.K economy is terrible. |
07-08-2008, 12:07 PM
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I am afraid there's no more strong reversal today at 1.965, which means tomorrow is the judgment day for bull. Below 1.96 tomorrow.
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07-08-2008, 12:16 PM
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next week may bullish to 2.0
I can't see bull now
long 1.9680
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07-08-2008, 12:22 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cmellon
I am afraid there's no more strong reversal today at 1.965, which means tomorrow is the judgment day for bull. Below 1.96 tomorrow.
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Cmellon, I am so new to this that I am trying to understand what you mean. Do you mean it is just going to stay around 1.9680-89 today and then drop to l.965 tomorrow?
Still trying to learn. |
07-08-2008, 12:43 PM
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Time 2 fly
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07-08-2008, 12:48 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cmellon
I am afraid there's no more strong reversal today at 1.965, which means tomorrow is the judgment day for bull. Below 1.96 tomorrow.
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The G/U often has a daily rythm of up days and down days, IMHO the current level @9684/87 looks a reasonable buy, though a better option would be to wait for the 6.00am opening candle tomorrow morning. I am expecting tomorrow to be an up day for the cable, but please trade the price action and noe expectation/s. |
07-08-2008, 02:19 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by karensi
Cmellon, I am so new to this that I am trying to understand what you mean. Do you mean it is just going to stay around 1.9680-89 today and then drop to l.965 tomorrow?
Still trying to learn.
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Hi... yesterday GBP dropped heavily (200 pips) and tested the 61.8% fibo level at 1.965. The price later bounced to 1.978. Today the price dropped again and there seems to be no longer a bounce and it does look like it will settle around 1.968.
Based on fundamental and my daily chart, I am bearish GBP, and I expect the down move to continue tomorrow.
But please understand that many really good traders in this forum actually think that it will go to 2.00 or 2.02. Please browse the forum, including old post to see their point of view.
Please always use your own trading rules and plan, pick a good point to enter long / short, and most importantly put a stop loss.
If you are completely new to forex, please read as much info about fundamental and technical trading as possible.
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07-08-2008, 02:30 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 2be
The G/U often has a daily rythm of up days and down days, IMHO the current level @9684/87 looks a reasonable buy, though a better option would be to wait for the 6.00am opening candle tomorrow morning. I am expecting tomorrow to be an up day for the cable, but please trade the price action and noe expectation/s.
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As long as 61.8% fibo 1.9640 - 1.9650 holds, then yes, 1.9684 / 1.9687 is a very reasonable buy, and you can profit a lot. For bull, the price to beat is 1.98. If price can break 1.98, then the price will quickly rise up to possibly 2.00.
On the other hand, currently price is close to 1.965. I would expect tomorrow market will try to test this level again. If price breaks this level, IMHO price is going to continue to slide further with 1.94 comes to picture.
Do you have a stop loss for your long? |
07-08-2008, 02:45 PM
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Stopped out, new long entry
My 9778 entry stopped out. The latest decline would be a 3-wave C-of-2 given a push over 9705, provided that 9646 does not break. It looks like a second test of the downward trend line on the daily chart, and if the day candle fails to close back under the trend line, all the better. New entry:
Buy 9705, stop 9660 (-45), target > 2.0000 (>+340) 7.5:1 (yikes!)
However, the decline from 2.0000 could be a developing wave D of a large triangle. If so, the decline to ~9400 should appear "sharp" (be quite rapid) and be reached quickly, i.e., within a week. A bounce as high as 9900 wouldn't do any damage to this possibility.
So if this entry takes, I will move to a break-even stop on a rally above 9800 (possibly even sooner).
p.s. Also, the potential for a USD rally isn't ruled out yet. It's still possible to count a sequence of 1-2 waves in an upward channel on the dollar index. Until that sequence is broken, any of the dollar pairs are hanging in the balance.
Last edited by hardknocklife; 07-08-2008 at 02:59 PM..
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07-08-2008, 04:24 PM
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Cmellon,
Thank you so much for your time and very helpful information! I hope you make over $1000 on your trade!!!!
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07-09-2008, 12:56 AM
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Is this the beginning of an upward move or is it just playing and expanding the sideways action. I do not have all the technical knowledge of you guys.
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07-09-2008, 01:01 AM
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Iran missile report is screwing up the short plan. Nevertheless, I am still short at the moment, and in fact have just added a new short with the spike up. Risk is 1.98, TP should be 1.959.
My hope is that the Iran missile report is a temporary blip that correct again soon.
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07-09-2008, 01:08 AM
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I went long as I thought it was breaking that way after watching it all afternoon. Should probably do like you and put limit orders in.
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