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07-09-2008, 02:22 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cmellon
BOE is expected to keep the rate steady. If anything, traders will speculate BOE to reduce rate, not to increase it, due to the terrible economic condition. IMO, this interest rate event risk should not give reasons for traders to build up long. If traders are long, the reasons are something else.
D1 chart is telling me it should go down to 1.95 - 1.96, and not yet go back up to 2.0 at this level. Fundamentally it is supported too since U.K economy is terrible.
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I agree. I am traveling now trying to follow the market from hotels... I was short on EURUSD and GBPUSD on last two days. For tomorrow (Thu) I would like to go, if possible, short on GBPUSD and long on EURGBP.
best,
A. |
07-09-2008, 02:38 AM
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I am now short as well. Closed long with a small profit.
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07-09-2008, 02:44 AM
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Good setup in 30 minute chart before the perfect storm at 4.30 EST.
RSI sells, MACD sells, EMA sells. All it needs now is a reason to sell heavily further.
Watch out with 1.964 and 1.96 level. Expect some resistance on those levels.
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07-09-2008, 02:51 AM
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1 pip loss on long
I put a 45 pip trailing stop on the long when I couldn't watch it, also did not like the price action. It followed the short rally burst and then stopped for -1 pip loss.
I now have a sell signal at 9660:
Sell 9660, s/l 9720 (-60), target 9460 (+200), 3:1
And will look to bracket the current range with a breakout buy at 9750 if a buy signal sets up.
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07-09-2008, 02:59 AM
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Preparing a limit buy @1.959 now, in case price can break 1.964.
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07-09-2008, 03:53 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cmellon
As long as 61.8% fibo 1.9640 - 1.9650 holds, then yes, 1.9684 / 1.9687 is a very reasonable buy, and you can profit a lot. For bull, the price to beat is 1.98. If price can break 1.98, then the price will quickly rise up to possibly 2.00.
On the other hand, currently price is close to 1.965. I would expect tomorrow market will try to test this level again. If price breaks this level, IMHO price is going to continue to slide further with 1.94 comes to picture.
Do you have a stop loss for your long?
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Hi Cmellon, I always use SL and when I trade in the direction of Delta points I keep the SL larger. Totally agree that 9640 support is very important and if it was breached, my ITD count would have to be reconsiderred. In the past such levels were often tested and still provided good trading apportunuities. The next ITD3 has plenty of time to get there, so I think we are in a daily range for the time being, and because of the ITD and MTD counts have a lot of time to get there, it is expected that the price shall try these levels, providing even more good entries. Saying that one has to trade asuming nothing, but the price action alone.
Last edited by 2be; 07-10-2008 at 01:52 AM..
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07-09-2008, 03:56 AM
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Good grief... another scalping day? Bull and bear struggling for direction.
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07-09-2008, 04:08 AM
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Closed out shorts. Too erradic right now.
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07-09-2008, 04:27 AM
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where now?
cable sruggling for direction at the moment. Dont fancy selling at these levels (currently 1.9710) but do fancy a short at 1.9760 and 1.9810 with stops around 1.9860
If my charting theory isnt too rusty after all these years a sustained break now below 1.9670 should set up a move to 1.9540 and possibly (if its a bear flag on the hourly chart) at test back below 1.9400
Will just have to wait and see and be patient.Nopoint trying topick a direction mid range.
Take care all
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07-09-2008, 06:16 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnG_FX
It's possible we will go through that trendline and then stall at the .50 fib at 9826,
A pullback from there to retest the broken trendline is the area I am looking at for adding additional longs at the moment
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hi JohnG......please let me know when u add up positions I'm long @ 9700.....
Breeze
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Warning follow @ own risk...I dont use stop loss I hedge
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07-09-2008, 06:33 AM
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Guest Moderator
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Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 1,536
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Breeze
hi JohnG......please let me know when u add up positions I'm long @ 9700.....
Breeze
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Hi Breeze
I'm still holding longs from Monday @ 9656 and 9679 and added another this morning @ 9718
I should have covered them all at the highs yesterday but I didn't envisage the pullback being so deep so only took one off (we came all the way back to the 88.6% fib of wave 1) But never mind, I trade on the larger swings so can't get all the little ones in between
We have had the wave 2 pullback yesterday and now starting the big third.
I will possibly add another long when we break the hourly trendline currently @ 9750, next add on point would be a break of 9810 although watch out fot the 50% fib at 9826
__________________
John G
Last edited by JohnG_FX; 07-17-2008 at 04:48 AM..
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07-09-2008, 06:56 AM
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Where next GBP
Hourly trendline for both bull and bear is merging smaller. Whoever cleanly breaks the trendline has the best chance to continue the move.
Last edited by cmellon; 04-05-2009 at 06:26 PM..
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07-09-2008, 06:58 AM
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Long
Hi John & Breeze
I am also long, and have been since Monday. I'm trading for the longer term and working on the Delta/Matrix assumption that the last intermediate delta point is in at 1.9643, so we are now going up to the next one which is a week away.
Regards
Ian
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07-09-2008, 07:01 AM
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Guest Moderator
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ian2000
Hi John & Breeze
I am also long, and have been since Monday. I'm trading for the longer term and working on the Delta/Matrix assumption that the last intermediate delta point is in at 1.9643, so we are now going up to the next one which is a week away.
Regards
Ian
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Hi Ian,
Exactly the same here. the 0.618 fib time target for the high is 16th July
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John G
Last edited by JohnG_FX; 07-17-2008 at 04:48 AM..
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07-09-2008, 07:05 AM
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Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 26
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnG_FX
Hi Ian,
Exactly the same here. the 0.618 fib time target for the high is 16th July
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Hi John
I see the GBPCHF is refusing to play ball and fall. Are you still in that trade from earlier in the week?
Regards
Ian
PS
I'll Skype you later, I can't do it at work. |
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