Quote:
Originally Posted by tacamonchi
Don't think it will reach 9705 before the NFP. hope to hear from you before the news release. Problem is that there will be a slew of reports- NFP is just one of them. Probably will take all of 5 minutes for traders to completely digest all of them before a definite direction evolves. However according to Doris Halim's I-Ching mode, price of the pound is predicted to reach 9910 around the time of news release. I am inclined to put in two longs just to cover this prediction. Question is: at what price point?
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It's very hard to predict the market reaction to NFP. Sometimes it's so irrational and very unexpected. NFP is infamous of causing whiplash to both direction. If you want to enter long, the question is where are you going to put your stop loss, and that is very difficult to determine at this point in time. And if past experience is any lesson, NFP will eat up everyone's stop loss before turning back to the other direction. NFP is that crazy.
I personally wouldn't go long for the reason of guessing the market reaction to NFP. But I know many traders like to do this for NFP. IMO, going long is a counter trend to the general downward trend, so it's quite a risky proposition. I would only go long in order to hedge my short position. During NFP time, I would only buy to hedge if price ever falls to 9655.
If price shoots up just like your prediction, I would just double up my short position.
I could be wrong, but that's my 2 cents.