Hi Cmellon,

Sent you PM. Can you please tell your views about that.

Greetings all.

Haven't posted for a while as there was nothing to post, I said a couple of weeks ago we were going down to 1.9400 the same is true, and over the next month or so I would not be surprised to see 1.8600's .

The low on this current move down is not due for another week, given the rapid move down we have had already I would not be surprised if we had a corrective bounce, perhaps as high as low-mid 9800's before another leg down.

Big day today for GBP and EUR with both banks announcing rate decisions.

BOE have 2 options, hold or raise. they cannot lower with the current inflation levels above the government target, no matter how much all the politicians whinge.

There is an outside chance they will raise (I personally think they should) but very unlikely.

I'm expecting cable to get bid after the news.

Trichet and ECB, he will be hawkish in his rhetoric but in all probability will do nothing and leave rates on hold.

I'm expecting EUR/GBP to sell off today giving cable a bit of a lift.

Asian accounts have been buyers of EUR this morning, also Deutsche Bank giving a Euro buy recommendation currently helping the EUR.

I have taken a scalping long on cable this morning at 9490 with a stop at 9450. open target atm but in the bigger picture I am looking to reverse to shorts, albeit from better levels than now. I am not tempted to sell any breaks, if we go down and it takes my stop then it will be a case of waiting until ITD6 is in and then go long..

I have set up a blog within this site and will update it periodicaly with my delta counts and views- there is nothing on there yet but will post some charts either this evening or over the weekend.

__________________
John G

Thanks John for setting up the blog as it will really help to understand delta.

Question: What is the expected date for MTD2? If I see the last MTD2 it was around 17 the Aug 2007 (right?) so considering lunar year 10 days difference each year, dont you think it is due now around 7th - 9th Aug 2008?

Cheers,

Hi John, the 1.86xx are in my long term agenda... 61.8% of 2.1160-1.7946 = 1.8617... of course, I am not saying that Cable is going there straight, but my long term outlook is still bearish... but always following the market...
in my case, weekly indicators are bearish... but it seems like the pair is getting a bottom... anyway... in summary, I am bearish below 1.9800/50... and waiting for a buying signal at current range base (1.94xx)... then, going down again for a break of 1.93 base...

best,

A.

Hi A,

1.8617 probably can be achieved by November of this year, looking at my Delta chart.

Price has to go up one more time until Sep 15, with the top most likely to be around 2.00 level or less. This also completes wave e of wave B in the EW pattern. Due to the relatively short price distance compared to the length of time required (1 full month), Aug 15 - Sep 15 would be a good month to do range trading.

15 Sep - 13 Nov, price will drop from 2.00 to 1.86s. I will just short and go for a vacation for 2 months, LOL

Hi A & C

Agree

we are all on the same page

__________________
John G

Hi JohnG- I am happy that you are back and obviously refreshed. Now with you and CMellon, I am more confident with my positions. I would be happy if before August 15 that pound touches 9400 before going up to complete the leg. Again, welcome back.

hi john,
really excite to see u back here..hv been awaiting 194xx
such that will see yr post again.
me here hv been bearish all the time till lately thought
19650 is gd strong & hv been long since...sigh
so glad to hear cmellon, adrog r all on the side w/ u to see gbp higher..
but as usual all these views r more on med term.

however seems most traders TODAY prefer to sell on spike today.
pls comments
yr upside today...? can advise?

panda eyes

Hi Panda

I realise that a lot of people are looking to sell on rallies, I am also looking to sell, but not today.

On Delta the next ITD6 is not due until around the 15th, and could well be later as the larger MTD and LTD direction is down.

However we have already had a rapid move doen in this pair, daily is now oversold and looking to turn. 4hr and 1hr charts both have positive D and have turned on the DiNapoli MACD and Stoch. We also just failed yesterday at the 0.886 fib on the move from 1.9363 to 2.0158

Given that we have another week before we are due to arrive at the next ITD point and the state of the charts, I am playing it that we have a couple of up days (today and possibly Friday) to straighten out the technicals before we head down again for ITD6, which might only be to the lower triangle line currently around 1.9380/80

My target for this move up is hard to quantify- as I said earlier it could go as far as 1.9800+, it could also turn down from 1.9740.

I am currently long at 9490 and have raised stop to 9480, I will raise it again if we break 9600.

I'm just keeping an eye on what everything is doing, stocks and oil (Oil currently back up above $121.40) and will reverse when it "feels right" and the charts give me a sell signal.

Attached Images

 

__________________
John G

Hi John G,
Welcome back and thanks for the detailed analysis of delta matrix. I fully agree with you that GBP will rise before it begains another major fall in coming weeks. I will wait for 1.9769 to go short with an immediate target of atleast 400pips, until then watching on sideline. Thanks

Ooopsss... my short trade got closed and my long 9455 got trigerred....

I am very impressed by your discipline. You just held it until reaching your target. This is what I need to learn - discipline.

Congratulation! That was more than 550 pips.

By the way, what's your stop for this long?

I entered long a little too early (1.9459)

1.939, may got hit today. You win some, you lose some (hopefully less, LOL)

hi friends

i am not so good with chartings but will it elicit support at 1.9409? or is it all the way to 1.9360?

views?