It looks like 1.8620 was hit very briefly a couple of hours ago.

Very interesting, can i ask what you would look for as confirmation that ITD6 is in, and where would you look to in time horizon for the ITD7 to get out of longs,

you mentioned a few posts ago , that longs that have been traped may get a chance to get out before the final leg down, when do you thinkthat will be? i think you mentioned a price around 191 on that chart??

thanks

Ray

Hello,

I will look for some hammer or morning star formation for signs that ITD6 is in, just like 2be said a few posts back. Also will look at the date. If Aug 15 has passed, I am a bit more comfortable. JohnG_FX will update us for sure when ITD6 is in.

ITD7 is approximately 7-10 days after ITD6, I think. The price around 191 in the chart is just my projection. It could be more / less than that, but time is more important. Suppose GBP corrects so fast to 191 just within 2 days, then keep the long until 7-10 days have passed. In Delta, time is more important than the price.

Well.. Kids are back in school.. My trading schedule is all messed up now. Back to trading in the evenings. Nothing worse than trying to get the kids ready for School and trying to trade at the same time!.. That definatly produces more loss than wins. Catching back on up GB from last week and it had "NO" support in the 9336 area.. "Congratulations" to everyone that shorted in that area and who even took a Short at a higher position.

Hey Flguy.. Yes there was a solid line there.. There was a triple test in that area.. but I believe I also posted This was definatly a full on Break down.. The Coat Tails was with Shorting the £. Same thing happen in all the Yen pairs back in July of '07. I caught some of those big drops in US/JPY. This is the Forex Market!.. Big, Fast, Strong Moves.. John KickLighter can attest to that!..

I'm not doing anything until I get a confirmed retrace.. New Weekly chart attached.. Watching for a strong bounce at the 1.85xx area first.. If that doesn't hold.. We don't have anything until 1.81xx / 1.805x area.. There is a Long trend line back to 2001 in the 1.81xx / 1.80xx area..
Now it is time to play the "Prior support is resistance" game..

As far as the market is concerned: "All you can do is act on what it is doing today with the informaiton that it provided to you yesterday."

When you say 7-10 days, what date would that be? By that I mean .. if ITD6 is supposed to end on the 16th ... would the 7-10 days start on the 16th (which would be a Saturday) or would it be from the 18th (which is the day trading resumes after the weekend).

Thank you for all your input !!

7-10 days from Aug 18 (which is on Monday)

Hi cmellon & all

Just a thought, as JohnG mentioned in his blog:

"On the ITD we are still heading down to complete ITD6, this is due within the next 2-5 trading days"

That was posted last Saturday, so the ITD6 may be in anytime from now.

cmellon could be right with the thought that with the severity of the decline it may be late (i.e. Monday)

This is where people who can give indications as to candlestick theory can help with positive indications of the turn.

All I'm saying is be careful on longs until the signs are there.

Ian

Hi all

Just a quick post.

As has been said by cmellon, 2be and ian2000, in terms of ITD6 time up is due anytime now.

Given the massive moves over the last 2 weeks and the very overstretched nature of the cable and EUR/GBP the move up could be quite rapid.

A lot of people are now very bearish on this pair and if they do not already hold shorts will be using upticks as far as 1.9035 to re-establish shorts, so the move up will accelerate as their stops get taken, essentialy it's going to be a short covering rally.

Given that we went to the .618 fib I have gone long @ 1.8651, however the position is relatively small and I have a wide stop at 1.8530. If we go down further below 8600 today I will be looking to add further longs.

If, and it's a big if; ITD6 is in then we should have at least a 3 wave move up for ITD7, so I will be looking to add further longs on a W2 retrace,

4hr currently trying to give a bottom signal with 2 hammers in the last 5 bars, also daily trying to give a hammer - but we still have 14 hours to go before the candle completes.

Attached Images

 

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John G

Hi JohnG

Given the overstretched nature of GBP, is LTD12 still due on Sept 15 or early at Aug 15? What's your view on this?

cmellon

hi john

when u say itd7 move up? till what level do u see it going?

Hi.

In my opinion it's too early for LTD12 to be in with this move,

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John G

I'll post on the blog on Saturday, but it will probably be a straight fibonacci/EW retrace.

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John G

Just as an aside, and it's not directed at anyone in particular.

I have had quite a few people contact me on Sype asking questions like "how low - how high) etc.

Everybody must do their own research and homework, taking a trade is purely personal and will vary from person to person .

There are signal services out there who for a fee will give you entry, exit and stop levels. I don't do that. I'm just trying to help by giving people another viewpoint as to where the price is likely going over a period of time.

As a bit of an exercise I have set up demo a/c on an MT4 platform with a $10,000 opening balance. I will be using this to trade only ITD points on cable. (no intraday in and out scalps and no other pairs) I will be taking the same trade on my live account.

I'll see how it works out in terms of performance and put it on the blog every now and then. each trade taken on the demo a/c will be using 10% of equity.

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John G

Hi all - sorry this isn't the place, but given that New Zealand hasn't got the capital to affect the markets, selling off lamb to tescos etc - a good bet looks like GBP long against NZD, it' at bottom of range, and support and on the 4 hour charts a definate hammer has formed - also the sales data is out in 12 hours, and living here myself the shops are like ghost towns so that'll probably be bad and give it a boost! good luck all - sorry about the off topic again!