Discuss the GBP/USD with a DailyFX Analyst - Page 378 - DailyFX Forex Forum

se1paul · #**5656** (**permalink**) 09-18-2008, 03:01 AM

MARKET TALK: Short Sterling Gains On Talk Of UK Rate Cut
News update

2008-09-18 8:58

0758 GMT [Dow Jones] In the current volatile trading conditions, markets are prone to extreme moves. The March '09 short sterling contract reverses earlier price declines Thursday to forge ahead on spurious market chatter of a possible emergency interest rate cut by the BOE. The contract is currently up 0.08 at 94.885, from an earlier low of 94.62. (KJE)

FYI..... Personally, I cannot see it happening, as it would be totally out of character for the MPC.

EURGBP looks an interesting way, in this scenario, of selling the rumour and buying the fact as no cut materlialises...

smartboy · #**5657** (**permalink**) 09-18-2008, 08:40 AM

I have bought GBP/USD at 1.8230 ,

should i keep it , or it may go down ?

thanks for your advise .

shernandez · #**5658** (**permalink**) 09-18-2008, 12:02 PM

Do you think the recent unexpected increase in UK retail sales, and BoE resistance to cut rates thus far is over-valuing the currency pair?

With the market anticipating decline in UK spending, and rising inflation and unemployment, could these downside risks indicate possible profit from holding a short position?

arodriguez · #**5659** (**permalink**) 09-18-2008, 07:44 PM

look like GBPUSD has found resistance at 61.8% of 1.8793-1.7444. (61.8% of 1.4907-1.3881 for EURUSD). Nice! Bravo Fibo!
what's next? in Cable's case a break below the 20 sma is needed in order to go down again... AUDUSD, EURUSD and NZDUSD are trading below the 20 sma. (I am thinking that for a real trend reversal we need a double bottom formation first).
OK, right now is Friday in Asia... This week I stopped to trading cable in Asian and European session because high spreads, and usually I don't trade American session... so, today I will be out. See you next week.

best,

A.

bertmaple · #**5660** (**permalink**) 09-18-2008, 08:05 PM

GBP/USD:

looking for pair to climb to 38.2 retrace point of 2.11 - 1.75 drop = 1.85 area

holding a BUY @ 1.7854
TARGET @ 1.8461
STOP - locked in @ 1.7910 (yay!)

REVERSAL waiting @ 1.8471

Pair is cooling off- may see a dip back to 1.79 before heading up again

CodyB · #**5661** (**permalink**) 09-18-2008, 09:46 PM

01:41 More Details Emerging On Treasury Plan For Toxic Debt Sydney, September 19: According to the Wall Street Journal Treasury officials have been working on a plan to create an entity to take bad assets off of banks"s and financial firms balance sheets for weeks. The reports states that Treasury officials have been reluctant to go to Congress for the authority to create the entity for fear it wouldn"t get approved. The WSJ reported that the entity would differ from the RTC in that the new entity would not hold and sell assets of failed banks as the RTC did, but instead would buy the bad assets from solvent firms at steep discounts and eventually sell them back to the market through auctions. The WSJ also reported that the SEC will follow the UK FSA in temporarily banning short selling of financial institutions.

balajisi · #**5662** (**permalink**) 09-20-2008, 07:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmellon

Hi,

Google Delta trading and read as much information as you can if you are interested to learn and understand this method.

We are onto 11. This method doesn't predict price.

Hi cmellon

I have 5 lots bought at 19285 average and hedged short at 18550. Can u suggest what level should i close the hedged shorts and allow the longs to appreciate and then close the longs? What is your reading of gbp/usd trend since last 2 weeks? Is it a correction or begining of a long term bullish trend.

Balaji

balajisi · #**5663** (**permalink**) 09-20-2008, 10:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmellon

Hello,

It is a tough question to answer about what specific level to close.
I could however offer some opinions about some timing and direction of the price in medium and long term so that you can perhaps consider this input in your plan. My opinion can be wrong too, just to make sure you know this

There could be a medium trend down around mid Oct - early Nov. Price may reverse down, and I suspect it will be quite a sizable downmove. However, it will not break lower than 7444, which was the low made on Sep 11. It may test this level again though, sort of forming a tweezer bottom.

The long term trend is still up until around late December - mid January. The highest high level of this upmove will not be made until late December - mid January.

From Delta perspective, I don't need to be concerned too much whether this recent upmove is merely a correction or a beginning of the bullish trend. What I do need to be concerned is the timing. When the time is up, it's up and the market has to turn regardless of the price. And for this upmove, long term wise, the highest high level won't be made until late December - mid January, in which price then will reverse down for the next couple of months.

Attached is one possible scenario of price movement until late December. You can see the date of each projected point on the x-axis. Again, Delta doesn't project price and it will never do, it only project the timing of market turn. For this chart, don't pay attention too much on the price level (y-axis), as it can be higher or lower, but more important is the price direction and timing (x-axis).

Hope that may help a bit.

P.S. Here is one way to use Delta. Delta for example project the lowest low of the last 2 months drop to be due (to turn) on mid September. And we did get a bottom on Sept 11. If you have hedged position and know this information, you could have closed your short in mid Sept, knowing that market will turn up with a series of higher high and higher lows until late December.

Dear cmellon

Thanks a lot for ur advice buddy appreciate it a lot. I know I should have closed when price was at 17500 which i wanted to but I was struck in another pair eur/nzd so could not risk although i wanted to. I am safely out of that pair and the difference in longs/shorts pips open positions loss i have almost recovered by trading in other pairs but once i am at breakeven level just want to gain little more by closing at a better bottom coming weak and then closing the longs with 200 to 300 pips gain do not want to hold on for long term just till next week end and yes if the price goes in my favour might put in a trailing stop loss after closing the shorts. I think 18000 should be seen sometime coming week and should be a good bottom to close and then wait till it crosses 18500 and may be 18800 could be seen till end of this month. Do u feel the same what i am thinking might happen. Dont worry just need your inputs nothing else as a second opinion.

Thanks for ur inputs and help god bless you and all of us in this forum

Balaji

cmellon · #**5664** (**permalink**) 09-20-2008, 11:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by balajisi

I think 18000 should be seen sometime coming week and should be a good bottom to close and then wait till it crosses 18500 and may be 18800 could be seen till end of this month. Do u feel the same what i am thinking might happen. Dont worry just need your inputs nothing else as a second opinion.

Strictly speaking, the main bottom of the downmove on Sept 11 (7444) is in all likelihood already IN, even though it's not yet proved beyond reasonable doubt. I personally already consider the main bottom as IN on Sept 11.

Referring back to my chart above, you see ITD 10 (blue number 10). That was back on Sep 16 with 7730 as the lowest level range on that day. If ITD 10 is really already IN on Sep 16, then we would never break lower than 7730until mid October.

The only time the downmove can break lower than ITD 10 (but not lower than ITD 8 which was the main bottom on Sep 11), is during mid October - early November downmove, which is the downmove from MTD 4 - MTD 5.

So back to what you have in mind above, I'd say that if ITD 10 was really in on Sep 16 at 7730, then price won't break lower than this level until mid October. There's also a possibility that ITD 10 was IN at Sep 19 instead at 7908 as the low. If this is the case, price won't break lower than 7908 until mid October.

bertmaple · #**5665** (**permalink**) 09-22-2008, 02:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bertmaple

GBP/USD:

looking for pair to climb to 38.2 retrace point of 2.11 - 1.75 drop = 1.85 area

holding a BUY @ 1.7854
TARGET @ 1.8461
STOP - locked in @ 1.7910 (yay!)

REVERSAL waiting @ 1.8471

Pair is cooling off- may see a dip back to 1.79 before heading up again

nice- this trade earned me + 607 pips - though it looks like pair is heading all th way to 1.8790 area. Lost 50 or so pips on reversal - STOP was @ 1.8550. will look for next sell oppurtunity

drexel · #**5666** (**permalink**) 09-23-2008, 06:48 AM

I think maybe will correction to 1.8345 and after GBP go to 1.9400

CodyB · #**5667** (**permalink**) 09-23-2008, 07:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bitrader

the possible rate correction for which the close key support range will be 1.8460/80, where it is recommended to evaluate the activity development of both parties according to the charts of shorter time interval.
For short-term buying positions on condition of formation of topping signals the targets will be 1.8520/40, 1.8580/1.8600, 1.8640/60
An alternative for sells will be below 1.8380 with targets 1.8320/40, 1.8260/80, 1.8180/1.8200, 1.8100/20.

from Daily Forex Market forecasts
.

go spread your spam elsewhere

arodriguez · #**5668** (**permalink**) 09-23-2008, 10:29 PM

80pips range in Asia today... spot dancing around the 20 sma in 1 hour chart... sleepy...

Last night I tried to take breaks and pullbacks of the 1H-20sma... but not too much performance... 8 trades made, 4 winners... and small profit... at least positive at the end of the day... one dollar is one dollar...

best,

A.

DollarBull · #**5669** (**permalink**) 09-23-2008, 10:40 PM

This may trigger a drop in gold/silver commodity prices and USD may strengthen because of that. Not a good time to go long in GBP or EUR, IMHO.

Darwin · #**5670** (**permalink**) 09-23-2008, 10:59 PM

Hello everyone,

Newbe alert! Yes I'm new at this trading thing and much of what of have learned (or should I say "made aware of ") this summer has come from reading this blog. It has been a pleasure. Congratulations to all for the fine work. As a newbe I'm sure I'll be asking questions that newbes ask and you have heard many times. In advance I ask for your patience.

Specifically at this time I would like to addess the delta traders. I have been trying to rap my head around the basic Delta systems. Please correct me if I'm wrong but from what I can gather from this blog and related websites is that there are three basic developments/systems of the delta predication.

The first one is discussed in the book "The Delta Phenomenon" (which I have bought) and the Delta Video Training CD. This system was developed principally by Jim Sloman with the assistance of Wilder.

The second development is the Market Matrix developed I assume by Wilder and presented in his Market Matrix training CDs. This integrates Elliott Wave and Fibonacci analysis to the initial Delta System.

The third development, also called the Market Matrix, was developed by Jim Sloman and discussed in a book of the same name. Apparently it attempts to tweek the basis of the original Delta cycles resulting in differing counts.

I'm sure there is more to it but would you say that this is basically correct - there are three basic development based on the original Delta concept?