Pound has been on wild ride today coming off the 2.0175 high to hit 2.0042 low. No real economic impetus behind the move. In fact housing data continues to blaze, but GBPUSD is still trading off GBPJPY flows so volatility is much explained by the action in the carry.

I just relearned another lesson the hard way. I took the short GBPUSD position around 2.0110 and I thought I'd conserve my risk by setting my stop at 2.0135 on the vain hope that momentum would carry it through. Of course, when price action was incredibly choppy and still I didn't move my stop a wider (2.0150). Alas, I was stopped out on that round high and missed out on that nice 50 point run. Of course, I wouldn't have taken profit yet (likely looking for 70-80 points); but I would have at least been in the green with a stop moved up for a modest take away at the very least.

I guess I'll have to find the silver lining in this and say at least I'm learning from my mistakes and not just taking the loss and moving on to the next one.

Hi Riskee,

Good to see you back. Well, considering the action and energy in the markets, who would want to take vacation....just kidding.

Welcome back and hope to see you around the forum.

Morning Update...

The GBPUSD didn't test higher above our benchmark resistance figure lending to weakness in the pair. Instead we had a high close just below the 2.0186 at 2.0178 with a spike high at 2.0183. Anyone short below the level was a winner.

For those that missed this in the morning...

The latest to fall:

http://www.forbes.com/markets/equiti...markets06.html

Cheyne Finance was founded in 2005 and invests primarily in mortgage-backed securities. It is currently worth $6.6 billion, and Cheyne Capital will be able to estimate the fund's final losses from an eventual sale by the end of the month.

New York Update: Pulling back from the 2.0173 New York session high, the GBPUSD is set for a test lower at the 2.0093 August 23rd spike high. A breach would support a test of the 2.0050 support level in the near term. Comparaitve failure to break below the support trendline would purport an advance towards the 2.0200 resistance figure up top.

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/calenda...507538323.html

Hi John,

This week I was short @0170 two times (Mon/Thu). On Wed I was long @0100. Three profitable trades.

Potential range 2.00 -2.02 in upcoming days...?

A.

Nice trades arodriguez. And, here I am sidelined waiting for a breakout. Maybe I should look for trades within the triangle. Of course, now, it is growing smaller and smaller. It would probably be a leading (and profitable) indicator to fade me when I finally change my trading strategy...

I'm was looking for the range for GBPUSD and considering the potential for any spikes in volatility. I was thinking a big shift in risk taking can change things (can't forecast that), something from the Fed symposium could shake up the dollar (also an unknown) or there is a serious shift in demand for pounds or dollars which seems unlikely. On the other hand, you have a good established range (both in GPBUSD in many of the other majors/risk pairs), an extended US holiday, and a looming ECB and BoE meeting next week. So, barring any unforeseen event; I'm probably going to stick to the range.

I've kept my breakout orders on for sure; because that stuff often happens when I'm sleeping; but I've also taken a page from your book and have looked for some range trading in the meantime. I had an order to short GBPUSD at 2.0170 this morning. Missed it by a few points...

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Well guyz ,entered a long on Pound @0150 , Pound and Euro Bullishness are INEVITABLE , especially the upcoming couple of weeks , Interest rate decisions are the key to all traders right now , SO GO WITH THE MARKET , However DOUBTS ALWAYS come in the week that preceed interest rate decision to re-ask ourselves , would the Feds keep interest rates or a CUT is on the move , So volatility will be outstanding , with range trading and hedging strategies to rule , For me it doesn't matter , I am in a Bullish stance for the Pound till rates decision . GOOD LUCK

Nice RISKEE. Looks like your bullish outlook is paying off for your trade. I can see your outlook on everything; and you definitely have time before we have to worry about the interest rates. Perhaps my caution is costing me. I got stopped pretty quickly on the short with a small loss and just as that happened, it seems, I was triggered on the long side. I'm a little concerned about the lack of a strong follow through. I wonder where this will go before the weekend coma takes over. So far, the EURUSD breakthrough isn't helping the GBPUSD too much. I'll continue to watch it. If we don't have anything in the US data, I may just move up the stop; because there will be nothing to stop this from drifting back down to the old range.

Just a morning update...

On the test of support, the 2.0093 trendline wasn't tested as had been expected. As a result, with no formidable break below the figure, our upside benchmark at the 2.0200 psychological trendline was tested early in the New York morning. With the pare back on Bernanke comments and fundamental releases, we are attentively scoping the 2.0100 figure.

as refer to the last week post here is the followup chart.

resveral zone activated ?

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__________________
I Found My Holy Grail - No Setup No Trade

http://I-Found-My-HolyGrail.blogspot.com

Hi Guys,

Im curious to hear some of your expectations/predictions for the GBP/USD???

How do you feel short term (0-6 months and longer term for 2008)

Do you think we will see $2.10 to the pound and if so when?

Thanks

Well , seems like we have a resistance that needs to be broken but I doubt this will happen today , range trading now in play , Buy dips...Bullishness More confirmed after prices pulled back , Closed trade before us data , re-entered long at 0120 , moving stop loss to 0155 , targeting 0268 the 61.8% Fib retracement. GOOD LUCK

New York Update: Continually bullish, the pound sterling looks set to move higher off of the 2.0150 support trendline. As a result, ahead of the weekend, we are looking for a formidable break above the 2.0190 August 26th high in attempting tests at the 2.0232 intraday spike high target and above.