Boys & Girls..
our usual chat room seems to be down.
We will use this one for now until the other one is back up and running

ChatMaker.net - Make your own chat room! - #28 Day


Regards,
M$M

Woo... I got all in on that pop this morning. I'm short for a bit here on this retrace.

Edit: Oops, wiped out my account. Bummer. Now I get the challenge of building up the account again! :-)

Hey, Beery! Good PMA there. Hope it works next time 'round. Too many folk were thinking bearish today, and bulls made some trade. Moo!

I'll say! Wow... and it seems like no one knows yet why the US$ took a dive today. Oh well... easy come, easy go. :-) That's what I get for going 'all in' on a reversal like that. haha

Short now from 4439. Stop 4505.

The last 5-wave rally (15 min chart) appears to complete a larger 3-wave rally (see 1hr chart below). My MA is rolling over so that is my signal.

That said, a 3-wave decline that does not break 4300, and especially if it holds above 4150, leaves open the possibility of a dramatic move to the up-side to break the trend-line on the weekly chart, because of the 3rd-of-3rd wave phenomenon. I will try to alert that possibility here if it develops in the market.

Attached Images

 

1 hr does have that stall out look about it??

Attached Images

 

arrogant fool

OK, intervention one more time. has somebody a friend in BoE? LOL... yesterday, I didn't take any signal in this pair and I ran to cover my short position on AUDUSD. let's see how market reacts on the rate announcements tomorrow.

Consolidation until tomorrow? I agree with those thinking on range trading

Nope. The market will decide for me whether and when I am to be paid.

But I do have an idea of the potential in this trade. A decline below 4300 would leave 3 waves up on the 4 hour chart, suggesting a decline below 4150. If these happen with some momentum, I will start crowding my stop down above resistance points.

The levels 4300/4150 are based on EW and define the potential return on the trade. I like to take trades with at least a 1.5:1 potential return on risk. This one is about 2:1 at 4300 (my stop is now 4505).

Other than that, since I've no way of knowing what will happen next, I have to wait until the market reveals some structure in order to make consistent decisions about where to next move my stop.

ps. 4392 at the moment, looks like there may be a re-test into 4460 area at least. Until 4150 is broken, there is still a sequence of 1-2 moves, meaning, potential for a strong rally. The market is near the top of the weekly and daily range. If it ranges as arodriguez mentioned, this entry will hold. If it breaks out, I may reverse on a break and re-test of 4500.

I am thinking that the USD is going to rally with the rate cut by GBP. Breaking the 1.4 barrier will make the GBP free fall further perhaps to 1982 levels? Perhaps a parity with the Euro is likely the result.

Please let me know, as I am predicting short for GBP/USD meaning that I am predicting that the pound will further slide down to the 130 USD levels.

I slept well but the market did not decline in the manner expected, e.g., clear 5-wave move. In fact 3-waves are visible, and the top of wave 1 at 4296 has not been breached after some time now, leaving open the possibility for another rally.

Momentum indicators are pointing down at daily and 4 hr time frames, but not at 1hr and 15 min time frames. In my experience positions held this long that have not gotten more solidly into profit, often don't work out.

Taking profit on 1/2 of the position, break-even stop on the rest at 4439.

An upside break of 4503, or a decline into 4296, are significant events. I won't necessarily trade them as breakouts, but either of those events will give more information about the market than is available to us now.

4h chart showing sideways action. Possible play should it bust the range

I went short at 1.4382. My cycle work is pointing to a down move for much of the rest of this week.

Hey Reiki,
Looking in retrospect, the GBP/USD rallied immediately after the last two BoE rate decisions as investors expect the central bank to conclude its easing cycle, and price action following tomorrow's policy meeting could follow suit if Governor King signals that he will keep rates on hold going forward. Nevertheless, growth forecasts for the U.K. continues to reflect a deepening recession throughout the region, which could drag on the pound over the near-term. As a result, trading in the current environment is very difficult, but if you are looking to go long the dollar (short the pair), I would certainly recommend using stop orders.

Seems risky. I can see a lot of volatility in this pair before and immediately after rate announcement.