I guess break of 160500 or 161300 will guide the direction. at the moment it's lurking between the two.

Trend seems to be down. But cable seems to be oversold and supporting at 60500.

ams

1,6098 - 1,6148 - 1,6178 - 1,6205 - 1,6249

1,6043

1,6002 - 1,5949 - 1,5909 - 1,5878 - 1,584

support resistance

.

I'm once again shorting (for a short term quick set of profits) the following:

1. EUR/USD: From 1.3908
2. GBPUSD: From 1.6098
3. AUD/USD: From 0.7815

All three currencies mentioned above are fighting very hard with the Kumo Cloud but just cant make their way in. However, extreme caution is required and suggested.

Happy trading.

Covered Positions. Too much of risk at this time.

Waiting for BOE news now.

Some very important Levels to watch out in next days and week.

Happy trading.

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Good analysis asherewt!

Has ichimoku been reliable for you on smaller timeframes?
I thought it's for daily or weekly charts?

thanks
ams

Really informative article.

I read about ichimoku mostly everywhere but could not find info in detail as you have given and I looked at the past performance to match it and it seems quite good !

thanks
ams

Thanks,

Unfortunately Ichimoku is perhaps one of the most mis-understood and least experimented tool in market. There is so much that can be and should be done with it but people have had a really one-sided and rigid view of it.

I was at one stage considering writing a book but dont know if I'll have the time and determination to do that.

Cheers,

I like trading the GBP/USD most of all. The daily chart is bullish, so thats my play. However, if I kept buying through all of June I would lost tons. I have learned waiting is a position and feel somewhat accomplished in being able to do that. I read recently that we should Trade Well and not often. Its now pinned on my wall and part of my mantra. I am thinking the pair is in retracement of its up trend, it could stay in a range between the June 3rd high and yesterdays low for quite a while. I am tempted today to get in long because of the move up, there is a pull back on the h4 right now so it might be a play, or I'll wait. I would like to see the stoch cross upward on the daily, normally that would be a green light for me, but with the way the pair has been behaving my confidence is waning. Any input criticism, agreement, disgagreement is appreciated,

Very well said KP.
Look at the weekly chart...put an RSI and see if that makes any sense?
candle is down rsi is overbought given the previous high levels....
also, most active traders(the one who made lot of money) are on holidays until august, market is toally manipulated. August will be more deadly when they come back and start buying, selling positions...

I think we are still bearish for these 2-3 weeks month...


thanks
ams

what a quote! i couldn't agree more, i've made lots of money but lost even more by doing high frequency trades (5+ per minute) the only times i've actually made serious money is trading with a medium term strategy (medium term for me is 1 week)

i think the next thing to kill the dollar could be corporate earnings, i'm looking around a week before the next BoE announcment to short the pound - i think it will have risen subtansially by then and the uncertaintly left around the remaining 25Billion of the QE program is going to spook the markets- this time round all it took was for a single report on monday to send the market in a frenzy at the prospect of the BoE spending another 25Billion (like it matters anyway!)

however that's just my opinion based on my own best guess, would be interested to hear what everyone elses game plan is going to be.

man, im one of that guys who dont understand the ichimoku, can u send me a link, or where can i learn about that ? thanks

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"Where trading becomes worth my weight"

great point. The weekly chart should not be overlooked. Being its moving down just adds to my hesitancy on opening a long position. You know its been said that the markets are bearish 12-18 months after a new President gets in office. Then bullish his last 2 years. Makes sense if you think about it.
and on manipulated markets--Trust no man ....in trading, trust yourself, which is another thing I have learned, take everything said by everyone, experts etc. with a grain of salt. When we let someones opinion move us, we are submitting our minds to another and letting emotions rule---a big no no

Is anyone looking at the pound crosses for opportunities. I think the cable's price action is ill-defined by technicals and fundamentals; so I'm waiting for something to develop there before jumping in. However, GBPCHF and EURGBP (perhaps even GBPJPY) are offering something right now in terms of technicals.

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__________________
John Kicklighter is the author of Dynamic Carry Trade Basket, Watch What The Fed Watches, and Forex Trading Weekly Forecast on DailyFX.com

Hi John,
I see your point on the crosses. I find it difficult to get "in tune" with more than one pair, even though I have much time to study the market. Its hard to build confidence in moving from pair to pair. Is this something that will come with time?
I understand that it is key to trade the most trending pair, so as far as angles go GBP/USD has/had a stronger slope than the crosses you mention, until it moved range bound at the beginning of June. Do you agree? Any input is appreciated. What do you think about the bullish engulfing candle on the cable is that clearing things up for you? Or are you inclined to see if the June 3rd 1.6664 is broken?
One more thing on the cable the h4 is in overbought and daily oversold. How should a trader be processing that? A pullback on the h4 is possible coming? When it does it may be good time to enter long?
I am having some minor regrets, I contemplated an entry order for a breakout that I removed yesterday, it would have yielded a couple hundred pips....I guess I should just write it off understanding the cable has been wishy washy AND/OR i need to trust myself more.