Discuss the GBP/USD with a DailyFX Analyst - Page 612

ams_fx · #**9166** (**permalink**) 07-09-2009, 12:59 PM

Folks,

Does any of you use hedging when the trade moves in the opposite direction or you use only stop loss?
Would be worth discussing it as most US brokers are stopping it I guess.

thanks
ams

Bongoman · #**9167** (**permalink**) 07-09-2009, 02:13 PM

Personally I only use stop loss, as hedging can go against you both ways.

Personally I believe the Pound is overbought short term so am short now at 16350 looking to add more shorts as the 1 hr chart gets more overbought.

Good luck looking for a drop to test the 16300 area to take gains

Bongo

KP FX Trader · #**9168** (**permalink**) 07-09-2009, 02:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ams_fx

Folks,

Does any of you use hedging when the trade moves in the opposite direction or you use only stop loss?
Would be worth discussing it as most US brokers are stopping it I guess.

thanks
ams

I have thought about hedging, but not enough to come up with a defined plan. The problem I see, is that you are protected from loss and you are also blocking yourself out of gains. I suppose it can be done, but I'm not sure Im the man to do it. It seems like a frustrating position to be in. Then there is the point where you cut one, then the bull that you let run turns into a bear.
Im trying to train myself to get in right from the get go, but I am open to hearing some strategies ams_fx.

Bongoman · #**9169** (**permalink**) 07-09-2009, 04:12 PM

IMHO cable is overbought...the only worry is the lack of any correction towards the end of day trading on the European trading session. I am short at 16350 but think I will need to add the shorts as it may tick higher, either way I think shorts entered in at 16250 were forced to close so you could see some more short squeezing tommorrow.BUT from then dont get carried away it will retreat.

Best wishes

Bongo

asherewt · #**9170** (**permalink**) 07-09-2009, 05:16 PM

Well said, I'm waiting for the Shorting signal on 4H

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bongoman

IMHO cable is overbought...

CodyB · #**9171** (**permalink**) 07-09-2009, 05:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CodyB

one of my rare trades I'll post

Gbp/Usd
Short
@ 1.6330
@ 1.6380 sl
@ 1.6290 tp1
@ 1.6250 tp2 @ 1.6220tp3

GU is not my favorite

This is an intra-day reversal, after cable made a break higher that did not have total market support. Reduce the lots on this, and be prepared for some volatility. Equity markets are flat, oil and gold are lower, and as such this may just reverse a percentage of the moves higher. The Stop is the other side of the 20 day SMA area.

Close a percentage between 10-20 pips.
Close a percentage @ Target 1 and move the Stop towards break-even.
At Target 2 move the Stop to Target 1. Then move the Stop up as each Target is hit.
The final amount will then be taken out with the Trailing Stop.
If the Signal pulls back 25 pips look to close out a percentage

TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK
if you get stopped out dont come crying to me

I have canceled this as it is not going anywhere, and was intended as a quick reversal from Wall Street trade.

asherewt · #**9172** (**permalink**) 07-09-2009, 05:42 PM

Cancelled ... why ? have u looked at the 4H chart ?

Quote:

Originally Posted by CodyB

I have canceled this as it is not going anywhere, and was intended as a quick reversal from Wall Street trade.

asherewt · #**9173** (**permalink**) 07-09-2009, 05:44 PM

Guys,

Thanks for showing interest in Ichimoku.

I'll start a new forum thread (right here on this site) for you guys most probably on Weekend.

Hope you'll all join me there.

Cheers,
Asher

CodyB · #**9174** (**permalink**) 07-09-2009, 05:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by asherewt

Cancelled ... why ? have u looked at the 4H chart ?

I answered that in my post.

It did not move as I expected it to so I canceled it and will look later tonight. I wont sit here for the next 2 to 3 hrs for one trade.

I agree on the 4hr but dont have the time to babysit and still trade later

asherewt · #**9175** (**permalink**) 07-09-2009, 05:48 PM

Thanks Cody.

Quote:

Originally Posted by CodyB

I answered that in my post.

It did not move as I expected it to so I canceled it and will look later tonight. I wont sit here for the next 2 to 3 hrs for one trade.

I agree on the 4hr but dont have the time to babysit and still trade later

John Kicklighter · #**9176** (**permalink**) 07-09-2009, 05:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KP FX Trader

Hi John,
I see your point on the crosses. I find it difficult to get "in tune" with more than one pair, even though I have much time to study the market. Its hard to build confidence in moving from pair to pair. Is this something that will come with time?
I understand that it is key to trade the most trending pair, so as far as angles go GBP/USD has/had a stronger slope than the crosses you mention, until it moved range bound at the beginning of June. Do you agree? Any input is appreciated. What do you think about the bullish engulfing candle on the cable is that clearing things up for you? Or are you inclined to see if the June 3rd 1.6664 is broken?
One more thing on the cable the h4 is in overbought and daily oversold. How should a trader be processing that? A pullback on the h4 is possible coming? When it does it may be good time to enter long?
I am having some minor regrets, I contemplated an entry order for a breakout that I removed yesterday, it would have yielded a couple hundred pips....I guess I should just write it off understanding the cable has been wishy washy AND/OR i need to trust myself more.

It does come with time; but if you only focus on the majors, you won't every get a sense of what the crosses are doing.

I know it is a lot to take in; but I recommend getting a sense of how the individual currencies are performing by looking at all their crosses. Most traders start by only trading the majors. What you are doing is becoming very familiar with how the dollar is doing on a whole and how it responds to its various counterparts. If you want to get a better feeling for any other currency, you would look at how it is trading against its other counterparts.

Given time doing this, you will start to notice the bigger themes and see what currencies are responding to what market drivers. For example, you can see that the Japanese yen and US dollar are still sensitive to risk; but also the British pound is particularly reactive to sudden shifts on Wall Street (my barometer for traditional investments).

As for GBPUSD, its runnup through May was aggressive; but it was also short-lived. The GBPCHF and GBPJPY moves were more consistent in terms of distance and time spent. Therefore, potential reversals on these pairs could possibly cover more ground than the cable. I think the wide range bull candle today was impressive; but it doesn't initiate any strong bullish signals in my mind. For a strong upside bias, I want to see a close above 1.6625/50.

fazi · #**9177** (**permalink**) 07-09-2009, 06:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by asherewt

Guys,

Thanks for showing interest in Ichimoku.

I'll start a new forum thread (right here on this site) for you guys most probably on Weekend.

Hope you'll all join me there.

Cheers,
Asher

Go for it Asher - I find it quite a good complementation to EW when it comes to projections of correctional moves. It seems to me to be usless during complex corrections, but this is probably where some advanced ways of interpretation, which I don`t know (yet), play a key role - I`ll be there in this thread - good luck

Patryk

terton · #**9178** (**permalink**) 07-09-2009, 06:23 PM

I would be wary of shorting cable before 14th.

asherewt · #**9179** (**permalink**) 07-09-2009, 06:34 PM

and why is that ?

Fundamentals, right ?

Quote:

Originally Posted by terton

I would be wary of shorting cable before 14th.

herman sucipto · #**9180** (**permalink**) 07-09-2009, 07:03 PM

Support Resistance Levels 10 July 2009

1,6402 - 1,6419 - 1,646 - 1,6504 - 1,6535

1,6348

1,6249 - 1,6205 - 1,6178 - 1,6148 - 1,6098

support resistance

.