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07-09-2009, 07:11 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KP FX Trader
Hi John,
I see your point on the crosses. I find it difficult to get "in tune" with more than one pair, even though I have much time to study the market. Its hard to build confidence in moving from pair to pair. Is this something that will come with time?
I understand that it is key to trade the most trending pair, so as far as angles go GBP/USD has/had a stronger slope than the crosses you mention, until it moved range bound at the beginning of June. Do you agree? Any input is appreciated. What do you think about the bullish engulfing candle on the cable is that clearing things up for you? Or are you inclined to see if the June 3rd 1.6664 is broken?
One more thing on the cable the h4 is in overbought and daily oversold. How should a trader be processing that? A pullback on the h4 is possible coming? When it does it may be good time to enter long?
I am having some minor regrets, I contemplated an entry order for a breakout that I removed yesterday, it would have yielded a couple hundred pips....I guess I should just write it off understanding the cable has been wishy washy AND/OR i need to trust myself more.
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Hi John:
I often strugle with this myself "...... One more thing on the cable the h4 is in overbought and daily oversold. How should a trader be processing that? A pullback on the h4 is possible coming? When it does it may be good time to enter long?..."
Looking forward to your thoughts on this aspect...
Regards.
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07-09-2009, 07:23 PM
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BEARISH CROSS
Quote:
Originally Posted by asherewt
Well said, I'm waiting for the Shorting signal on 4H
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Would that be a Bearish Cross of the 80 Asher...or is there something additional?
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07-09-2009, 07:28 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Krismitt
Hi John:
I often strugle with this myself "......One more thing on the cable the h4 is in overbought and daily oversold. How should a trader be processing that? A pullback on the h4 is possible coming? When it does it may be good time to enter long?..."
Looking forward to your thoughts on this aspect...
Regards.
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That depends on what time frame you are trading in. If you expect the trade to take more than four hours, the daily signal should be more important. If you are looking for a trade that perhaps lasts a matter of an hour or two, then the four hour time frame is sufficient.
Typically, I defer to the signals on the higher time frame; but many fluctuations can happen within that period of time before those higher signals start to play out. Realistically though, the 4hr and daily time frames are very close in terms of relative proximity. If it were a signal for something like 60min versus daily, then it will be more straightforward on what you use.
__________________
John Kicklighter is the author of Dynamic Carry Trade Basket, Watch What The Fed Watches, and Forex Trading Weekly Forecast on DailyFX.com
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07-09-2009, 07:33 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by John Kicklighter
That depends on what time frame you are trading in. If you expect the trade to take more than four hours, the daily signal should be more important. If you are looking for a trade that perhaps lasts a matter of an hour or two, then the four hour time frame is sufficient.
Typically, I defer to the signals on the higher time frame; but many fluctuations can happen within that period of time before those higher signals start to play out. Realistically though, the 4hr and daily time frames are very close in terms of relative proximity. If it were a signal for something like 60min versus daily, then it will be more straightforward on what you use.
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Much appreciated John.
Regards.
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07-09-2009, 08:23 PM
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I do and I simply love it.
BTW, new NFS regulations wouldnt make much difference to me as I deal with a CFD broker based in Australia.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ams_fx
Folks,
Does any of you use hedging when the trade moves in the opposite direction or you use only stop loss?
Would be worth discussing it as most US brokers are stopping it I guess.
thanks
ams
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Last edited by asherewt; 07-09-2009 at 08:52 PM..
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07-10-2009, 12:25 AM
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Here is my 2-cents:
I normally show more respect to the 4H chart and thats what I like to trade on, however I would rather wait for 1H (or 30M sometimes) to turn into the same direction as the 4H is suggesting. Once they speak the same language I'd enter.
By doing this, I make sure to run into profit zone in the minimum amount of time with no waiting game.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Krismitt
Hi John:
I often strugle with this myself "......One more thing on the cable the h4 is in overbought and daily oversold. How should a trader be processing that? A pullback on the h4 is possible coming? When it does it may be good time to enter long?..."
Looking forward to your thoughts on this aspect...
Regards.
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Last edited by asherewt; 07-10-2009 at 01:50 AM..
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07-10-2009, 02:16 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by asherewt
Here is my 2-cents:
I normally show more respect to the 4H chart and thats what I like to trade on, however I would rather wait for 1H (or 30M sometimes) to turn into the same direction as the 4H is suggesting. Once they speak the same language I'd enter.
By doing this, I make sure to run into profit zone in the minimum amount of time with no waiting game.
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Thanks Asher!
Regards.
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07-10-2009, 06:41 AM
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Flag?
On hourly chart, it's seen that a flag formation has been recently broken and a downside movement has been in effect I guess. But on the long run, I don't know whicever way it's gonna take.
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07-10-2009, 06:44 AM
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On 4H chart its showing a really bad picture for GBP at this stage as the Kumo cloud is getting thicker and thicker however its quite early to put any analysis on table.
I'll post a chart as soon as the picture is clear and its safe to say anything ...
Quote:
Originally Posted by korhan.x
On hourly chart, it's seen that a flag formation has been recently broken and a downside movement has been in effect I guess. But on the long run, I don't know whicever way it's gonna take.
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07-10-2009, 06:55 AM
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The British pound Sterling fell broadly on Tuesday, after data showed that the UK’s manufacturing output fell ½ a percent in May, disappointing expectations of a .2 percent rise. The weak industrial output data highlighted lingering doubts about a recovery in Britain anytime soon.
At 11:30PM GMT, the Pound was down .95% to the US Dollar to 1.6132, down .54% to the Euro to .863, down .58% to the Swiss Franc to 1.7558 and down 1.6% to the Japanese Yen to 152.87.
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07-10-2009, 10:36 AM
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analysis paralysis?
Thanks John. I am not oblivious to what the other pairs are doing. So I guess I'm on my way. I do scroll through them to look fro relative strength and weakness. I agree with the break of the 1.6664 level to show direction more clearly. I suppose the issue is strategy and approach, I am watching for certain things on certain indicators on the cable. Those things do not mean the same on other pairs, necessarily. Maybe I am making too much of it, analysis paralysis? For example, say a stoch cross over on a daily is reliable on one pair, on another when the stoch crosses it may be too late for entry with the big move having happened already. Do you find that some pairs (Yen crosses) require a more predictive anticipating the move approach (of course not shelving indicators) but a more intuitive decision making process?
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07-10-2009, 11:47 AM
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gbp/usd
hi guys, i was watching cable charts, but im not so sure of level to trade, anyone of us, has some clear levels for some trades?
__________________
"Where trading becomes worth my weight"
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07-10-2009, 11:55 AM
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happy trading
bought 16180, added 16165, target 16365 monday, s/l 16145
have nice wkend.
love panda eyes to all
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07-10-2009, 11:58 AM
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happy trading
[quote=Panda Eyes;306916]bought 16180, added 16165, target 16365 monday, s/l 16145
have nice wkend.
love panda eyes to all
oops almost forgot will put trailing stops up& consider tp half
if test 16250/16300 tonite
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07-10-2009, 01:27 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KP FX Trader
Thanks John. I am not oblivious to what the other pairs are doing. So I guess I'm on my way. I do scroll through them to look fro relative strength and weakness. I agree with the break of the 1.6664 level to show direction more clearly. I suppose the issue is strategy and approach, I am watching for certain things on certain indicators on the cable. Those things do not mean the same on other pairs, necessarily. Maybe I am making too much of it, analysis paralysis? For example, say a stoch cross over on a daily is reliable on one pair, on another when the stoch crosses it may be too late for entry with the big move having happened already. Do you find that some pairs (Yen crosses) require a more predictive anticipating the move approach (of course not shelving indicators) but a more intuitive decision making process?
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Well, you are approaching it from a purely technical stance. In that way, you should just look at pure price action through a currency's crosses to gather a sense of direction and more importantly momentum.
If you're trading GBPUSD say and you catch a bullish breakout from otherwise moderate technical levels yet none of the other pound pairs (or dollar pairs) are moving, then you aren't likely to get much follow through on your position. When the sterling is being bought across the market, it is strong. When it is being bought against one currency, it is likely a short-term flow through a bank or speculative pool.
As for trading the yen crosses, I don't think you need to be more predictive. You can apply whatever style you want to it - trend following, trend lending. More important is just being very familiar with the market you're trading.
It is also important to keep a mind of fundamentals. Long-term fundamentals (interest rates, relative growth, risk appetite) define trend and short-term fundamentals (scheduled event risk) can give you a flag to when volatility will pick up and perhaps trigger new trends.
__________________
John Kicklighter is the author of Dynamic Carry Trade Basket, Watch What The Fed Watches, and Forex Trading Weekly Forecast on DailyFX.com
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